Could the Latest Strike on Russias Oil Hub Trigger a Surge in Oil Prices

Highlights:

• Oil prices jumped about 2% at the time of writing after a Ukrainian drone strike damaged an oil depot and vessels at Russia’s key export hub, Novorossiysk.
• Brent crude rose to US $64.25 and WTI to US $59.94, partly reversing earlier losses triggered by OPEC’s forecast that supply will match global demand by 2026.
• Despite the rebound, broader fundamentals remain cautious, with rising U.S. inventories and ongoing concerns about geopolitical instability shaping market sentiment.

Supply fears hit the oil market

At the time of writing, global oil prices have jumped roughly 2 per cent after a drone attack on an oil depot in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk — a key export hub. According to traders, futures for Brent crude climbed about US $1.24 (1.97 per cent) to US $64.25 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude rose US $1.25 (2.13 per cent) to US $59.94.

What happened in Novorossiysk?

Early on Friday a drone strike reportedly hit an oil depot, a ship in port and nearby residential buildings in the port of Novorossiysk, injuring three crew members according to Russian officials. The incident comes amid heightened concerns over Russia’s oil-export infrastructure and timing adds extra tension given upcoming Western sanctions on major Russian oil companies.

Bearish fundamentals still linger

Despite the sudden price bump, underlying fundamentals remain cautious. Earlier this week, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) flagged that global oil supply would match demand in 2026 – marking a shift from prior forecasts of a deficit. Also, U.S. reserves rose by an unexpected 6.4 million barrels last week, dampening bullish outlooks.

Why this matters going forward

The attack underscores how geopolitical events can rapidly lift price risk premiums even when structural demand remains soft. If Russia’s export hubs face sustained disruption, market watchers say that could tighten global balances sooner than expected. Meanwhile, investors will monitor whether the drone strike signals a broader escalation of attacks on oil infrastructure — which would further underpin supply tension.

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