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Market Alert : US Labor Market Update and Yen Carry Trade Unwinding – Global Market Implications

ASX set for strong start amid postive global cues

1. ASX Outlook-

The ASX 200 (XJO) is trading at 8,503.9, up +87.4 points (+1.04%), lead coming from strong gains from U.S. markets overnight. Almost all the sectors on ASX looking green as of now except energy.

2. Overnight US Markets:

Overnight, all major U.S. indices rose:

  • S&P 500: +0.98%
  • Dow Jones: +1.08%
  • NASDAQ: +0.88%
  • Russell 2000 (small caps): +2.80%

A broad rally across U.S. markets — especially when both tech (NASDAQ) and small caps (Russell 2000) rally — signals strong investor confidence. This positivity flows through to global markets including Australia.

3. US Sector Performance:

Almost all major U.S. sectors were positive:

Winners:

Communication Services (+2.15%), Health Care (+2.11%), Materials (+2.09%)

Losers:

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This rally wasn’t driven by just one sector — it was widespread. That’s usually a healthy sign for global markets.

4. Commodities: A major driver for the ASX

  • Gold -0.32% Gold slightly down may soften gold miners.
  • Silver+0.25%
  • Copper +0.86% Copper up is positive for our big miners like BHP, Rio Tinto, OZ Minerals.
  • WTI Oil -1.59% Oil down may weigh on energy stocks like Woodside or Santos.

5. What to Watch Today (ASX Focus)

  • Key focus: Wednesday’s Monthly CPI Report
  • Australia has now shifted to monthly CPI rather than quarterly.
  • This is important because CPI → inflation → interest rates.
  • The market will be watching to see whether inflation is slowing or remaining sticky.

Big Corporate Story: BHP Revives Bid for Anglo American

  • According to Reuters, BHP is reportedly reviving its takeover bid for mining giant Anglo American.
  • This comes months after Anglo merged with Canada’s Teck Resources to form a major copper-focused group.

Why this matters:
If true, this could be one of the biggest mining M&A moves in years and has major implications for copper supply and Australian mining influence globally.

6. Broker Move:

Here are the important upgrades/downgrades:

Accent Group (AX1) – Multiple downgrades (A lot of negative sentiment toward AX1 today)

  • Morgans: Buy → Hold, target cut $1.65 → $1.10
  • UBS: Buy → Neutral, target $1.70 → $1.10
  • JPMorgan: Overweight → Neutral, target $1.70 → $1.15
  • RBC: Outperform → Sector Perform, target $1.50 → $1.20
  • Morgan Stanley: Overweight → Underweight, target $1.80 → $0.95

Upgrades

  • Deep Yellow (DYL): Neutral → Overweight (TP $2.00 → $1.90)
  • Gorilla Gold Mines (GGM): New Speculative Buy
  • Lovisa (LOV): Neutral → Outperform (target cut)
  • Paladin Energy (PDN): Neutral → Overweight (target $8.90 → $8.60)
  • Reece (REH): Underperform → Neutral (target ↑ to $11)
  • Sims (SGM): Neutral → Overweight (target $15.70 → $17.50)

7. Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend:

Today’s ex-dividend stocks:

  • EZZ Life Science (EZZ) – $0.02
  • Infomedia (IFM) – $0.029

Our take at Kapitales Research:

  • Strong overnight performance from the U.S. suggests a positive start for the ASX.
  • Copper rising supports Australian miners — this is a key tailwind.
  • Oil falling may drag on energy stocks.
  • The CPI report on Wednesday will be a major driver this week.
  • Big story to watch: BHP’s revived bid for Anglo American.
  • Expect volatility among companies with broker rating changes, especially Accent Group (AX1).

 

 

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