Can AUB’s Profit Upgrade and Guzman y Gomez’s Expansion Sustain ASX Growth?

Highlights:

• AUB lifted its profit guidance floor, putting acquisition execution under closer scrutiny.
• Guzman y Gomez reaffirmed growth targets despite household budget pressures and rising costs.
• Both companies outlined expansion plans, with delivery central to their earnings outlooks.

AGM Updates Put Growth in Focus

AUB Group Limited (ASX: AUB) raised its FY27 underlying profit guidance in its 12 November 2026 AGM announcement, with its current market price (CMP) at AU$31.800, a gain of approximately 4.26%. Guzman y Gomez Limited (ASX: GYG) reaffirmed its FY27 outlook in its AGM announcement on the same date, with its CMP at AU$27.450, a gain of approximately 0.18%.

The updates presented two different growth strategies: AUB is seeking stronger returns from its expanding insurance portfolio, while Guzman y Gomez is combining restaurant openings with sales growth across existing locations.

AUB Raises Its Earnings Floor

AUB now expects FY27 underlying net profit after tax of AU$250 million–AU$265 million, increasing the lower end from AU$245 million. The revised midpoint represents approximately 14.6% growth compared to FY26.

AUB lifted its earnings outlook after reporting a 12.2% increase in FY26 underlying net profit after tax to AU$224.6 million. However, weaker performance in New Zealand, higher funding costs and adverse currency movements partly offset growth elsewhere.

Management’s priorities include integrating Prestige, strengthening its UK retail platform and improving performance in New Zealand and Strata.

AUB also outlined two portfolio developments:

• The proposed acquisition of One Underwriting from Aon would add a business managing approximately AU$72 million in gross written premiums.
• The agreed sale of claims handling operation Procare remains subject to regulatory approval, as does the acquisition.

These moves place capital allocation and integration alongside organic growth as key measures of execution.

Guzman y Gomez Holds Its Course

Guzman y Gomez maintained its forecast for mid-single-digit comparable sales growth in FY27, with quarter-to-date trading consistent with that expectation. The company also retained its target for underlying EBITDA to reach 6.7%–6.9% of network sales, compared to 6.2% in FY26.

Its Australian opening target remains 35 restaurants, excluding South Australia. Eight had opened in FY27, including Cessnock on the announcement date, with 15 expected during the first half. Master franchise partners plan another seven openings across Asia and South Australia.

Nevertheless, management acknowledged pressure on household budgets and higher-than-expected cost inflation while maintaining its focus on affordable menu pricing.

Execution Shapes the Outlook

For AUB, attention turns to acquisition integration, productivity improvements and recovery in weaker businesses. For Guzman y Gomez, the challenge is converting expansion and customer demand into higher margins while containing costs. Both updates support growth ambitions, but sustained progress will depend on operating delivery.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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