Mayank Bansal, CFA
Mayank Bansal is a CFA Charterholder and heads the Equity Research team at Kapitales Research, with over 5 years of experience analysing global equity markets. He leads fundamental, data-driven research combining rigorous financial analysis with macro trends.
Global Rare Earth Prices Surge as China’s Export Curbs Intensify Supply Concerns Ahead of Trump-Xi Talks
Highlights:
Rare Earth Supply Shortages Drive Global Price Disparities
Global rare earth markets are experiencing significant supply pressures as China's export restrictions create substantial pricing differences between domestic and international markets. According to reports, shortages of strategic minerals are increasing procurement costs for manufacturers across the United States, Europe and Japan.
The situation has intensified ahead of anticipated discussions between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, with critical mineral trade expected to remain a major negotiating issue.
Yttrium Prices Highlight Growing Supply Challenges
Data from Argus Media reveals substantial price differences across several strategically important minerals:
These minerals support semiconductor manufacturing, aerospace equipment, defence technologies and electric vehicle production. China's yttrium oxide exports have declined considerably, with shipments running at approximately 40% of their 2023–2024 average. Deliveries to the United States have also fallen roughly 70% from pre-2025 levels.
US-China Trade Negotiations Face Critical Test
Washington continues pressing Beijing to fulfil commitments under their existing trade arrangement, particularly regarding strategic mineral shipments. China's dominance in mineral processing gives it considerable influence over international supply chains. Meanwhile, American efforts to expand domestic production and support projects in Australia face lengthy development timelines.
Outlook: Supply Diversification Remains Essential
Rare earth markets could remain constrained despite potential diplomatic progress. Limited alternative production capacity and uncertain inventories may sustain elevated international prices. Australian producer Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) is targeting yttrium production in Malaysia from 2028, highlighting the time required to establish alternative supplies. Ultimately, sustained investment in mining, refining and processing infrastructure will be crucial for reducing supply vulnerabilities and supporting global manufacturing growth.
Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.
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