Kapitales Morning Highlights from Wall Street to ASX - 11 November 2026

Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker opening, declining 38 points (0.41%).

• S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined as Nvidia shares extended losses.

• US core CPI exceeded forecasts for the third consecutive month, reinforcing December Fed rate hike expectations.

• Brent crude briefly fell below US$90 per barrel amid hopes of easing Iran war tensions.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets displayed mixed performance, with Wall Street facing renewed selling pressure as stronger-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined, reflecting weakness in major technology stocks, particularly Nvidia, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average also finished lower amid cautious investor sentiment. European markets followed a similar trend, with the UK's FTSE index retreating as investors assessed inflation risks, interest rate expectations and broader economic uncertainty. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite also weakened, reflecting subdued market sentiment and pressure across key sectors. Meanwhile, Japan's Nikkei advanced strongly, supported by improving investor appetite and positive momentum in domestic equities. Indian equity markets remained closed for the trading session. New Zealand's NZX index recorded solid gains, demonstrating resilience despite weakness across several major international markets. Overall, global market sentiment remained cautious, with monetary policy uncertainty, geopolitical developments and fluctuating commodity prices continuing to influence investor positioning across major equity markets.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets experienced widespread selling pressure as stronger-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations of further interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Gold prices declined sharply as rising Treasury yields and a stronger interest rate outlook reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets. Silver also weakened, reflecting broader pressure across precious metals. Meanwhile, crude oil prices edged lower as hopes of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raised expectations of improved global energy supplies. Copper prices retreated amid concerns over industrial demand and uncertainty surrounding global economic growth. Uranium prices also declined, reflecting broader weakness across commodity markets.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin declined as cautious investor sentiment and expectations of higher US interest rates weighed on cryptocurrency demand. Overall, market sentiment remained subdued, with inflation concerns, changing interest rate expectations and geopolitical developments continuing to influence commodity prices and cryptocurrency valuations.

Bond Yields

Global government bond yields moved higher as stronger-than-expected US inflation data reinforced expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. Australian government bond yields increased, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and the possibility of additional interest rate increases by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Japanese government bond yields also edged higher amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook. Meanwhile, US Treasury yields rose sharply across longer maturities, with the benchmark Treasury yield approaching a significant psychological threshold as investors reassessed future interest rate expectations. Longer-dated Treasury yields also advanced, indicating continued pressure across the US bond market. Rising yields reflected concerns that inflation could remain elevated for longer, potentially requiring central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policies. Overall, global bond markets remained under pressure as persistent inflation concerns and expectations of further monetary tightening drove yields higher, with investors closely assessing central bank policy signals and upcoming economic data.

Key Drivers

• US indices declined following stronger-than-expected October inflation data and hawkish Federal Reserve commentary.

• Nvidia shares plunged 5.5%, weighing heavily on major US equity benchmarks.

• US headline CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month in October, while core CPI rose 0.3%.

• Markets fully priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

• The probability of a 50-basis-point December rate hike increased to 13.6%.

• US Treasury yields across two- to five-year maturities climbed more than 10 basis points.

• A basket of 62 semiconductor companies reportedly lost approximately US$5 trillion in market value.

• Anthropic reportedly targeted a US$1.4 trillion IPO valuation, with an indicative share price range of US$70–US$78.

• Nvidia's board reportedly appointed external legal advisers to investigate allegations involving CEO Jensen Huang.

• Microsoft shares declined approximately 3% following Anthropic's introduction of competing workplace AI tools.

• TSMC's October revenue surged 59.7% year-on-year to NT$586.89 billion.

• President Trump suggested the Iran conflict could end soon, although Iranian officials disputed reports of negotiations.

• Brent crude briefly dropped below US$90 per barrel amid expectations of easing Middle East tensions.

• US, Russian and Ukrainian representatives began negotiations in Abu Dhabi, focusing on security guarantees.

• Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that a 50-basis-point rate hike could be warranted if inflation remained elevated.

• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan supported at least two additional 25-basis-point interest rate increases.

• China's October imports reportedly surged nearly 42%, while exports increased approximately 35% year-on-year.

• Australian consumer confidence declined 2.7% to a four-year low of 78.2 in November, according to the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey.

ASX Company News

• Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) released its first-quarter FY2027 trading update on 11 November 2026, reporting unaudited cash net profit after tax of approximately AU$2.8 billion, representing an 8% increase year-on-year. Operating income increased 3% compared with the second-half FY2026 quarterly average, supported by lending and deposit growth. Business lending expanded 13.6% year-on-year, while home lending and household deposits increased 6.6% and 7.7%, respectively. The bank maintained a Common Equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.5%, with customer deposits accounting for 79% of total funding.

• PEXA Group Limited (ASX: PXA) released its first-quarter FY2027 trading update on 11 November 2026, reporting Australian Exchange transaction volumes of 934,000, representing an 11.5% decline year-on-year. Property transfers decreased 15.2% to 566,000, while refinancing transactions declined 6.4% to 233,000. National market penetration remained at 90%, while customer satisfaction stood at 89.1%. The company revised its FY2027 revenue guidance downward to AU$355–380 million from AU$385–415 million and reduced its EBITDA margin forecast to 29.0–31.5%. Core NPAT guidance for continuing operations was also revised to a range of negative AU$6 million to positive AU$6 million.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Macquarie Group (MQG) – $3.25

• Sandon Capital (SNC) – $0.005

• ResMed (RMD) – $0.066

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:30 am AEDT – Australia Home Loan Growth and Investment Lending – The latest housing finance data will provide insights into mortgage demand, investor borrowing activity and housing market conditions amid elevated interest rates.

• US inflation concerns intensified as October core CPI exceeded expectations for the third consecutive month, reinforcing the likelihood of further Federal Reserve tightening.

• Precious metals and mining stocks weakened, with gold falling approximately 2.6% and gold and silver mining ETFs declining around 5.5% amid rising Treasury yields.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures indicate a 38-point (0.41%) decline, as hotter-than-expected US inflation reinforced expectations of a December Fed rate hike and Nvidia shares extended losses.

• The S&P 500 fell 0.38%, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.74% amid technology sector weakness.

• Nvidia shares plunged 5.5%, adding pressure to US equity markets and semiconductor stocks.

• US headline CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month in October, while core inflation rose 0.3%.

• Markets fully priced in a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

• The probability of a 50-basis-point December rate hike increased to 13.6%.

• US Treasury yields across two- to five-year maturities climbed more than 10 basis points.

• Gold prices declined 2.65% to US$4,030.71 per ounce as rising bond yields pressured precious metals.

• WTI crude oil fell 0.61% to US$86.32 per barrel, while Brent briefly slipped below US$90.

• Bitcoin retreated 1.40% to US$73,876 as investors reduced exposure to risk-sensitive assets.

• Australian consumer confidence declined 2.7% to 78.2 in November, reaching a four-year low.

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