Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a flat start, down 1 point (-0.01%).
• US August payrolls surged by 162,000, nearly triple market expectations.
• Dow Jones fell 0.51%, while the S&P 500 declined 0.38%.
• Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.29% as rate concerns returned.
• US unemployment held steady at 4.1% in August.
• US 2-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.37%.
• Strong jobs data increased expectations for tighter Fed policy.
• US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers after attacks on US warships.
• US-Iran tensions remain a key risk for global oil markets.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets ended mixed, with investor sentiment shaped by stronger-than-expected US employment data, shifting interest-rate expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Wall Street finished lower as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones retreated, reflecting renewed concerns that resilient labour-market conditions could keep monetary policy restrictive for longer. Canadian equities also weakened, with the S&P/TSX Composite closing in negative territory. In Europe, the FTSE 100 ended broadly unchanged as investors remained cautious amid global macroeconomic developments and uncertainty around the interest-rate outlook.Across the Asia-Pacific region, sentiment was comparatively stronger. Japan’s Nikkei advanced, supported by positive momentum in domestic equities and improved risk appetite. Indian equities also finished higher, indicating relatively resilient investor sentiment. New Zealand’s NZX 50 recorded a solid gain, outperforming several developed-market peers. Overall, the session highlighted regional divergence, with US and Canadian markets under pressure while Japan, India and New Zealand delivered stronger performances.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets delivered a mixed performance, reflecting shifting expectations around US monetary policy, geopolitical developments and broader risk sentiment. Precious metals came under pressure, with gold retreating as stronger US labour-market conditions reduced expectations for near-term monetary easing and supported higher short-term bond yields. Silver also declined, underperforming gold during the session. In energy markets, WTI crude edged higher as geopolitical tensions involving the US and Iran continued to reinforce concerns around potential supply disruptions and Middle East energy flows.Industrial commodities were comparatively resilient, with copper advancing modestly amid continued demand expectations and supportive sentiment toward base metals. Uranium also moved higher, maintaining positive momentum as the longer-term outlook for nuclear energy continues to underpin market interest. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was broadly stable, posting only a marginal gain as cryptocurrency investors assessed the implications of changing interest-rate expectations. Overall, commodities remained highly sensitive to macroeconomic signals, while geopolitical risks continued to provide underlying support for energy markets.Bond Yields

Global bond markets were mixed as investors assessed strong US employment data and the interest-rate outlook. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield eased slightly to 5.152%, while Japan’s 10-year yield declined to 2.908%.In the United States, Treasury yields moved slightly higher after strong jobs data reduced expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts. The US 10-year yield edged up, while the 30-year yield also increased marginally. The small moves showed that investors were adjusting their interest-rate expectations without a major shift in the bond market. Overall, sovereign bond markets remained sensitive to inflation, employment conditions and evolving expectations for the timing and direction of central-bank policy.Key Drivers

• US stocks closed lower after stronger-than-expected August payrolls pressured rate-sensitive assets.
• S&P 500 gained 0.1% for the week, while Nasdaq rose 0.4% and Dow fell 0.3%.
• US nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 in August, with unemployment steady at 4.1%.
• US 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.37%, after hitting its highest since January 2025 intraday.
• Only three S&P 500 sectors advanced — technology, industrials and utilities.
• Chipmakers outperformed, led by Marvell, Micron, AMD, Intel and Nvidia.
• Tesla shares dropped 5.9% following its Cybercab rollout and regulatory scrutiny.
• Lululemon plunged 17.3% after weaker quarterly revenue and another guidance cut.
• Brent crude settled at US$95.84, posting an 8% weekly gain.
• Gold fell toward US$4,427/oz as the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.
• US forces struck three Iranian crude tankers following IRGC attacks on US warships.
• Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic dropped sharply, intensifying concerns over global energy flows.
• OPEC+ kept its October production policy unchanged, while reviewing capacity for 2027 quotas.
• Trump renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates following the jobs report.
• ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting.
• BoJ expectations favour a 25-basis-point hike, while prospects of a larger move have faded.
• UBS joined NAB and Deutsche Bank in forecasting an RBA rate hike in September.

ASX Company News

• Iondrive Limited (ASX: ION) released an updated technical and economic evaluation of its IONSolv™ rare-earth recovery process, estimating a post-tax NPV of US$243 million for a single 2,400-tonne-per-year US module. The model forecasts annual revenue of US$121.8 million and EBITDA of US$62.1 million, implying a 51% EBITDA margin, with development capital estimated at US$11.9 million. The module is expected to produce approximately 630 tonnes per year of rare-earth oxides, including around 624 tonnes of payable neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium oxide. The study supports Iondrive’s proposed first commercial module in Oklahoma, although it does not represent a final investment decision.
• Tamboran Resources Corporation (ASX: TBN) commenced initial gas sales from the Shenandoah South Pilot Project in the Beetaloo Basin with joint venture partner Daly Waters Energy. The milestone represents the first Beetaloo Basin gas volumes supplied to the Northern Territory gas market. Production is expected to progressively increase to the full 40 terajoules per day contracted to the Northern Territory Government under a long-term take-or-pay agreement by early 2027. During commissioning, Tamboran and its partner will receive a discounted gas price due to the interruptible nature of supply.
• Boresight Limited (ASX: BST) secured a US$383,275, or approximately AU$532,000, purchase order from a North American military customer through Mountain Horse Solutions. The order, around three times larger than the customer’s previous orders, includes more than 340 BQ-400 swarming-capable aerial target drones, multiple ground control stations and an operator training course. The equipment will support counter-drone warfare training for US military personnel, with production to be undertaken at Boresight’s expanded Huntsville, Alabama facility. Delivery and payment are expected during the second quarter of FY27.
• Tivan Limited (ASX: TVN) reported further high-grade copper-gold mineralisation from its Baucau, Ossu and Turiscai projects in Timor-Leste. Assays from 574 rock-chip samples returned grades of up to 6.87% copper and 24.7 grams per tonne gold, alongside nickel grades of up to 2.23% and cobalt of up to 0.26%. The company identified a 300-metre geochemical trend at the Vemasse Prospect and a polymetallic anomaly measuring approximately 1,000 metres by 800 metres at Scorpion. Tivan plans to prioritise Vemasse and Scorpion as it prepares maiden drilling at the Baucau and Ossu projects in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Adairs Limited (ASX: ADH) – AU$0.06
• Alkane Resources Limited (ASX: ALK) – AU$0.02
• Beam Communications Holdings Limited (ASX: BCC) – AU$0.014
• Enero Group Limited (ASX: EGG) – AU$0.014
• HUB24 Limited (ASX: HUB) – AU$0.42
• Michael Hill International Limited (ASX: MHJ) – AU$0.02
• Perseus Mining Limited (ASX: PRU) – AU$0.09
• Pro Medicus Limited (ASX: PME) – AU$0.37
• Super Retail Group Limited (ASX: SUL) – AU$0.33
• WT Financial Group Limited (ASX: WTL) – AU$0.007

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• No major market-moving economic data releases are scheduled for today.
• US Rate Expectations: Strong August payroll growth has increased expectations of a potential Federal Reserve rate hike, keeping bond yields and equities in focus.
• Oil & Middle East Tensions: Escalating US-Iran tensions and disruptions to energy flows could keep oil prices and ASX energy stocks volatile.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a broadly flat start after Wall Street declined and US Treasury yields moved higher.
• US August payrolls rose 162,000, well above market expectations.
• US unemployment remained steady at 4.1% in August.
• Dow fell 0.51%, S&P 500 lost 0.38%, and Nasdaq declined 0.29%.
• US 2-year Treasury yield climbed to around 4.37% following the jobs report.
• Strong US employment data reinforced expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy.
• Brent crude settled at US$95.84 per barrel, gaining 8% for the week.
• US-Iran tensions intensified after US forces struck three Iranian crude tankers.
• Strait of Hormuz vessel traffic declined sharply, raising concerns over global energy flows.
• Gold fell toward US$4,427 per ounce as the US dollar and Treasury yields strengthened.
• Investors should remain cautious amid the ongoing US-Iran conflict and elevated bond yields, which could drive further market volatility.

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