Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a 78-point decline, signalling a 0.89% weaker open.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq extended losses to a fourth consecutive session.
• Surging oil prices and Treasury yields pressured global equities.
• Brent crude hit US$109 per barrel as Middle East supply risks intensified.
• US Treasury yields reached multi-year highs as bond selling intensified.
• Treasury’s long-dated bond buyback failed to calm the bond market.
• Hot US producer inflation strengthened expectations for a Fed rate hike.
• ECB delivered another interest-rate increase amid renewed inflation pressure.
• Middle East supply risks remained the key driver of the oil rally.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded largely lower, with selling pressure evident across the United States, Europe, Canada, and New Zealand. Wall Street remained under pressure as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones declined, reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid elevated bond yields, higher oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the interest-rate outlook. Technology shares also faced pressure, weighing on the Nasdaq. In Europe, the FTSE 100 moved lower as investors assessed broader global risk conditions and the implications of higher borrowing costs and persistent energy-price pressures. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite recorded the sharpest decline among the major markets covered, highlighting broader risk aversion. New Zealand equities also weakened, with the NZX 50 ending the session lower. In Asia, market performance was comparatively resilient. Japan’s Nikkei edged higher, supported by selective buying despite weakness across several overseas markets, while Indian equities also posted a modest advance. Overall, global sentiment remained cautious as elevated oil prices reinforced inflation concerns, while rising bond yields and shifting monetary policy expectations continued to influence investor positioning.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets displayed significant volatility, with crude oil standing out as the strongest performer amid heightened geopolitical and supply concerns. WTI crude surged sharply as escalating Middle East tensions increased uncertainty around global energy supplies and key shipping routes. In contrast, precious metals weakened despite the risk-off environment. Gold moved lower, while silver experienced considerably heavier selling pressure as rising bond yields reduced the relative appeal of non-yielding assets. Industrial commodities were also under pressure, with copper falling sharply amid broader risk aversion and concerns about the global economic outlook. Uranium prices also declined, reflecting broader weakness across commodity markets. In digital assets, Bitcoin traded lower as investors reduced exposure to risk-sensitive assets amid tightening financial conditions and elevated market volatility. Overall, the session was characterised by a pronounced divergence between energy and other major assets, with surging oil prices adding to inflation concerns while higher yields and cautious sentiment weighed on metals and cryptocurrencies.Bond Yields

Government bond yields remained elevated, reinforcing concerns over tighter global financial conditions. Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose notably, reflecting renewed selling pressure in the domestic bond market and heightened sensitivity to inflation and interest-rate expectations. In the United States, longer-dated Treasury yields moved higher as elevated oil prices intensified inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that monetary policy could remain tighter for longer.Rising Treasury yields continued to pressure equity valuations, particularly rate-sensitive and growth-oriented stocks. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield also remained at an elevated level. Overall, global bond markets remained under pressure as investors assessed persistent inflation risks, elevated oil prices, and the prospect of tighter monetary policy. Higher energy costs could further complicate the inflation outlook, keeping government bond yields elevated and maintaining pressure on risk assets.Key Drivers

• US equities extended their losing streak to a fourth consecutive session.
• S&P 500 fell to its lowest level since 3 August.
• VIX jumped 8.69% to 17.89, signalling increased market stress.
• Treasury bought back US$5.19 billion of a planned US$6 billion in long-dated debt.
• Nvidia fell about 2.3% as higher long-term yields pressured AI stocks.
• Apple gained 3.5% following the unveiling of its foldable iPhone Duo.
• Oracle rose around 4% after hours following stronger quarterly results.
• Houthis seized Mocha, escalating risks near the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
• Saudi Arabia reported August crude production of 6.238 million barrels per day, its lowest since 1990.
• Trump said oil prices may remain elevated until after the November midterms.
• The ECB lifted its deposit rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 2.50%.
• Euro-area inflation is projected at 3.0% in 2026.
• Traders lifted the probability of a Fed hike next week to 70%.
• Markets priced around a 75% probability of an RBA rate hike in September.
• US producer prices increased 0.4% in August, while annual PPI accelerated to 5.4%.
• US final-demand energy prices surged 4.2% in August, intensifying inflation pressure.
• China’s August crude imports reached 8.93 million barrels per day, up 6.2% from July.

ASX Company News

• Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (ASX: VUL) secured its second lithium production licence for the Lionheart Project in Germany’s Upper Rhine Valley Brine Field. The six-year Ilka licence remains valid until 9 September 2032 and covers the Landau geothermal production permit area. Lionheart is targeting annual production capacity of 24,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide monohydrate, alongside renewable power and heat generation, with first production targeted for 2028.
• Jupiter Mines Limited (ASX: JMS) announced a leadership transition after Managing Director Brad Rogers resigned to take a CEO role with another company. Rogers will remain Managing Director until the end of November 2026, while Matthew Jarvis has been appointed interim Chief Executive Officer effective immediately. Jarvis has 25 years of mining experience, including 16 years in the manganese sector.
• Alkane Resources Limited (ASX: ALK) released its FY26 Group Resources and Reserves Statement, reporting total Measured and Indicated Mineral Resources of 578.80 million tonnes containing 8.64 million ounces of gold, 1.01 million tonnes of copper and 42.0 thousand tonnes of antimony. Group Ore Reserves totalled 25.49 million tonnes containing 1.37 million ounces of gold and 15.0 thousand tonnes of antimony.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Ariadne Australia Limited (ASX: ARA) – AU$0.005
• CAR Group Limited (ASX: CAR) – AU$0.435
• Cleanaway Waste Management Limited (ASX: CWY) – AU$0.035
• Joyce Corporation Limited (ASX: JYC) – AU$0.170
• PM Capital Global Opportunities Fund Limited (ASX: PGF) – AU$0.075
• WiseTech Global Limited (ASX: WTC) – AU$0.123

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 4:00 pm AEST – UK GDP: Markets will assess the latest growth figures for signs of economic resilience or slowing activity, with potential implications for the Bank of England’s policy outlook and the British pound.
• 10:30 pm AEST – US CPI: The key event of the day, with inflation data likely to influence Federal Reserve rate expectations, US Treasury yields, the US dollar, and broader global risk sentiment.
• Oil Prices: Elevated crude prices remain a major inflation risk, with further gains potentially reinforcing expectations for tighter monetary policy.

Summary 

• ASX 200 Futures Point to a 78-Point Decline as Oil Surges and Bond Yields Hit Multi-Year Highs.
• Wall Street extended its decline to a fourth consecutive session, with US benchmarks closing lower.
• Surging oil prices and elevated bond yields intensified pressure across global equity markets.
• WTI crude jumped 8.20% to US$103.93 per barrel.
• Middle East tensions escalated after Houthi forces seized Mocha, increasing risks around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.
• US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the 10-year at 4.968% and 30-year at 5.366%.
• US producer prices rose 0.4% in August, while annual PPI accelerated to 5.4%.
• Markets raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week to 70%.
• The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% amid renewed inflation pressures.
• Gold, silver and copper declined sharply, while Bitcoin also weakened amid tighter financial conditions.
• Markets are pricing around a 75% probability of an RBA rate increase in September.
• US CPI at 10:30 pm AEST is the key event to watch, with potential implications for Fed expectations, Treasury yields and global risk sentiment.
• Investors should remain highly cautious, as surging oil prices and persistently elevated bond yields threaten to intensify inflation pressures, squeeze valuations, and trigger further risk-off selling across equity markets.

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