Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a higher open, up around 44 points (+0.50%).
• Wall Street rallies after the Fed hike: S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.7%, Dow +0.6%.
• US 10-year yield falls to around 4.93%, its first decline in nine sessions.
• Brent crude eases to around US$104/barrel as Saudi pipeline restoration efforts reduce supply concerns.
• BoJ rate hike to 1.25% is nearly fully priced ahead of today’s policy decision.
• RBA Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks will be closely watched for signals on the Australian interest-rate outlook and monetary policy direction.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets ended broadly higher as investors reacted positively to easing bond yields, softer oil prices and improved risk sentiment following the latest Federal Reserve policy move. US markets led the recovery, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones advancing as lower Treasury yields supported equity valuations. The decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield below the key threshold helped reduce pressure on growth and technology stocks.

European markets also strengthened, with the FTSE 100 gaining momentum amid improved investor confidence. Canadian equities followed the global trend, while New Zealand shares recorded gains, reflecting broader regional optimism. The Nikkei in Japan edged higher as investors focused on upcoming monetary policy decisions and currency movements.

Indian equities remained relatively stable, with the market showing limited movement as investors assessed global rate developments, domestic factors and foreign market cues. Overall, the session reflected a shift toward risk appetite as concerns around inflation pressures, energy costs and bond market volatility moderated.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets strengthened as gold, silver and copper gained, while easing yields and improved market sentiment supported demand. Gold strengthened as demand for safe-haven assets improved, supported by softer bond yields and renewed focus on global monetary policy. Silver also advanced, benefiting from stronger precious metal sentiment and continued industrial demand expectations.

Crude oil declined as supply concerns eased following progress on Saudi Arabia’s pipeline recovery efforts, reducing some of the geopolitical risk premium in energy markets. Copper moved higher, supported by improving risk appetite and renewed optimism around industrial demand. Uranium prices also gained, reflecting continued interest in nuclear energy themes and long-term supply considerations. Bitcoin recorded a moderate rise as broader risk sentiment improved across financial markets.

Bond Yields

Global bond yields eased as investors assessed the latest central bank actions and shifting inflation expectations. The US 10-year Treasury yield declined, reflecting reduced pressure from inflation concerns and improved sentiment after the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. The US 30-year yield also moved slightly lower, indicating a modest improvement in long-term bond market conditions.

Australia’s 10-year bond yield also decreased, following the broader global trend, while investors continued to monitor domestic rate expectations and inflation developments. Japan’s 10-year bond yield remained elevated as markets focused on the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision and the outlook for further monetary normalisation.

Overall, softer bond yields provided support to equity markets by easing valuation pressures, although elevated global yields continue to remain a key factor influencing investor sentiment and risk appetite.

Key Drivers

• Wall Street rallied after the Fed hike, with US indices closing near session highs.
• S&P 500 gains broadened, with nine of 11 sectors finishing higher.
• US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.93%, ending a nine-session rise and easing valuation pressure.
• Semiconductor stocks advanced, supported by lower yields and optimism around inflation moderation.
• Gold rose to US$4,341/oz, while silver and copper gained on softer yields and improved risk sentiment.
• Volatility eased sharply, with the VIX falling around 12% to near 15.5 intraday as investors absorbed the Fed’s first-rate hike in three years and viewed the move as a policy signal rather than a major growth concern.
• Large US options expiry approaches, with significant derivatives exposure rolling off during Friday’s triple witching event.
• Generac surged after securing an Amazon data-centre generator supply deal, supporting long-term growth expectations.
• Micron and major chipmakers advanced as strong memory demand outlook boosted the semiconductor sector.
• Oracle rebounded as AI infrastructure funding concerns eased, following reports of OpenAI capital-raising discussions.
• Lucid gained after signing a large autonomous vehicle partnership with European ride-hailing platform Bolt.
• Oil prices declined as Saudi pipeline recovery efforts eased supply concerns, reducing geopolitical risk premiums.
• US-Iran tensions remained in focus, with diplomatic signals emerging alongside continued regional military activity.
• Trade tensions increased as tariff threats resurfaced, while US-China discussions continued ahead of upcoming talks.
• Bank of England held rates at 3.75%, with three policymakers supporting an immediate increase.
• Bank of Japan is expected to raise rates to 1.25%, marking the highest level in decades.
• US initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 196,000 for the week ended 12 September, reaching the lowest level since mid-July and below market expectations of 208,000.
• US housing starts declined 2.6% to an annualised 1.275 million pace in August, below expectations of 1.32 million, driven by a sharp fall in multi-family construction activity.

ASX Company News

• Forrestania Resources Limited (ASX: FRS) confirmed that the Zenith Minerals takeover offer remains open for acceptances following Takeovers Panel orders. The orders do not prevent the offer from proceeding, with Forrestania receiving acceptances from Zenith shareholders holding approximately 49.23% of Zenith shares and a relevant interest of approximately 58.33%. Zenith shareholders can continue to accept the offer, while the company progresses its strategy following the acquisition of the Edna May Gold Project.
• Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX: MAH) announced the acquisition of 100% of Aspect Engineering Solutions and associated subsidiaries to expand its engineering and minerals processing capabilities. Aspect generated approximately AU$75 million in FY26 revenue and AU$15.2 million in EBIT, with more than 295 employees and over 50 active clients across resources, infrastructure and energy sectors. The acquisition has an enterprise value of AU$75 million and is expected to deliver underlying EPS accretion of approximately 6.2% from inception.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Adrad Limited (ASX: AHL) – AU$0.026
• Centrepoint Alliance Limited (ASX: CAF) – AU$0.018
• Macmahon Holdings Limited (ASX: MAH) – AU$0.013
• Vita Life Sciences Limited (ASX: VLS) – AU$0.05

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Bank of Japan Rate Decision (9:30 am AEDT): Markets will monitor the policy decision and guidance for signals on the pace of monetary tightening and the future outlook for Japanese interest rates.
• UK Retail Sales Data (4:00 pm AEDT): Investors will assess consumer spending trends for indications of household strength and the broader UK economic outlook.
• Relief rally: Equities rebounded after recent declines as bond yields eased and Brent moved lower, but investors will assess whether the move is sustainable after the Fed decision.
• Commodity recovery: Copper and gold advanced as metals rebounded from recent weakness, supporting gains across mining and resource-linked sectors.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a higher open, up around 44 points (+0.50%), as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rally while oil prices and bond yields ease.
• Wall Street rallied after the Fed hike, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones gaining as yields eased.
• US 10-year Treasury yield declined to around 4.93%, ending a nine-session rise and supporting equity valuations.
• Brent crude eased to around US$104/barrel as Saudi pipeline recovery efforts reduced supply concerns.
• Gold advanced to US$4,341/oz, while copper and silver gained as commodity markets recovered.
• Global bond yields softened, although elevated rates remain a key factor influencing investor sentiment.
• Semiconductor stocks strengthened as lower yields and improving inflation expectations supported technology shares.
• Bank of Japan rate decision remains in focus, with markets expecting a potential increase to 1.25%.
• Bank of England maintained rates at 3.75%, while policymakers highlighted ongoing inflation risks from energy markets.

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