Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicated a positive start, rising 27 points (+0.30%) after six straight losing sessions.
• Wall Street rebounded, with US indices snapping a three-day losing streak.
• US Treasury announced plans to at least double long-dated debt buybacks, pushing Treasury yields sharply lower.
• Falling bond yields provided relief to equities after concerns over elevated US borrowing costs.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded on a mixed but broadly positive note, with most major benchmarks closing higher, while Asian markets remained under pressure. US equities advanced modestly, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones ending higher, reflecting improved investor sentiment.European markets remained resilient, with the FTSE 100 edging higher. Canadian equities also recorded a modest gain, indicating relatively stable sentiment across developed markets.In Oceania, New Zealand equities outperformed and recorded a solid advance. Asian equities were comparatively weak, with Japan’s Nikkei experiencing a sharp selloff, while Indian equities also closed lower amid cautious investor sentiment. Overall, global market performance remained mixed, with gains across the US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand offset by notable weakness in major Asian markets.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity and cryptocurrency markets traded on a strong positive note, with all major assets recording gains and precious metals leading the advance. Gold advanced sharply, supported by safe-haven buying and easing long-term bond yields, while silver recorded an even stronger rally, reflecting robust momentum across the precious metals complex.Energy markets also remained firm, with WTI crude oil moving higher amid supportive sentiment in the broader commodity market. Industrial metals showed moderate strength, with copper edging higher, while uranium posted a solid gain, indicating continued buying interest across key resource commodities.Cryptocurrency markets witnessed particularly strong momentum, with Bitcoin surging sharply and outperforming the major commodities. Overall, the commodities and crypto space remained firmly positive, with gains extending across precious metals, energy, industrial commodities, uranium, and digital assets.Bond Yields

Bond markets reflected a notable easing in US Treasury yields, supported by the US Treasury’s surprise decision to significantly increase buybacks of long-dated government debt. The move strengthened demand across the longer end of the yield curve, pulling the US 30-year yield back from elevated levels, while the 10-year Treasury yield also declined.The announcement provided some relief to financial markets by easing pressure from elevated long-term borrowing costs. However, concerns around US fiscal sustainability remained prominent, particularly as total US public debt crossed the US$40 trillion mark for the first time.In Australia, the 10-year government bond yield edged marginally lower, indicating relatively stable domestic fixed-income conditions. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield remained elevated, reflecting persistent pressure in the Japanese sovereign bond market. Overall, the decline in US yields improved risk sentiment and provided a more supportive backdrop for equity valuations, particularly for rate-sensitive and growth-oriented sectors.Key Drivers

• US benchmarks closed higher, although gains moderated from intraday highs, with the S&P 500 ending up 0.21%.
• Market breadth remained strong, with the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index gaining 1.04%, supported by Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Materials.
• Semiconductor stocks remained under pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 2.1% as Nvidia, Broadcom and AMD declined.
• US Treasury yields eased sharply after the Treasury unexpectedly increased planned buybacks of long-dated government debt.
• Gold recorded its strongest gain since August 5, rising more than 4%, while silver and copper also advanced.
• The US dollar fell to a three-month low, pressured by lower Treasury yields and expectations of increased market liquidity.
• Bitcoin posted its strongest rally since March, benefiting from improved risk appetite following the pullback in bond yields.
• S&P 500 earnings remained robust, with second-quarter earnings tracking around 50% year-on-year growth, supported by AI-related momentum.
• Moderna shares surged around 176% after positive late-stage melanoma vaccine results with Merck, while Merck gained about 10%.
• US-Iran tensions remained elevated, with the UAE halting trade and financial transactions with Iran following alleged missile activity.
• President Trump said the US is not currently holding talks with Iran, with no plans announced to restart negotiations.
• Trump temporarily paused proposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods for three days as the US and Canada worked toward a tentative trade agreement.
• Federal Reserve minutes showed a more hawkish policy debate, with several officials favouring a rate increase at the July meeting.
• US public debt exceeded US$40 trillion for the first time, highlighting growing concerns around the country's fiscal position and borrowing requirements.
• US net interest payments reached US$963 billion during the first ten months of fiscal 2026, accounting for around 15% of total federal spending.

ASX Company News

• Super Retail Group Limited (ASX: SUL) reported FY26 sales of AU$4.2 billion, up 3.2%, while normalised NPAT declined 2.8% to AU$226 million. Online sales increased 5.3% to AU$552 million, while the company declared a fully franked final dividend of 33 cents per share.
• Maas Group Holdings Limited (ASX: MGH) reported FY26 underlying revenue of AU$1.26 billion, up 27%, and underlying EBITDA of AU$300.3 million, up 37%. Statutory NPAT rose 89% to AU$136.1 million, while electrical infrastructure work in hand reached approximately AU$1.2 billion.
• Zip Co Limited (ASX: ZIP) delivered record FY26 cash EBTDA of AU$268.9 million, up 57.9%, while total transaction volume increased 27.2% to AU$16.7 billion. Statutory NPAT rose 45.7% to AU$116.4 million, with FY27 cash EBTDA targeted at AU$340 million.
• Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) reported FY26 operating profit of AU$2.67 billion, up 15.7%, with operating EPS increasing 10.1% to 129.9 cents. Development work in progress reached AU$19.7 billion, with data centres representing 78%, while FY27 operating EPS growth is targeted at 9%.
• Codan Limited (ASX: CDA) reported FY26 revenue of AU$875.0 million, up 30%, while EBIT surged 67% to AU$244.1 million and NPAT increased 69% to AU$175.2 million. Communications and Metal Detection both delivered strong growth, while the Communications orderbook increased 50% to AU$380 million.
• Medibank Private Limited (ASX: MPL) reported FY26 group operating profit of AU$813.5 million, up 6.7%, while underlying NPAT increased 2.9% to AU$636.8 million. Medibank Health segment profit rose 31.3% to AU$100.7 million, while the total fully franked dividend increased 6.7% to 19.2 cents per share.
• Bega Cheese Limited (ASX: BGA) reported FY26 revenue of AU$3.77 billion, up 6.7%, while normalised EBITDA increased 11.7% to AU$225.6 million and normalised PAT rose 35.8% to AU$69.0 million. The company expects FY27 normalised EBITDA of AU$240–245 million.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: TLX) reported H1 2026 revenue of US$477 million, up 22%, while adjusted EBITDA increased 146% to US$52 million. Profit after tax reached US$38 million, and FY26 revenue remains on track toward the upper end of its US$950–970 million guidance.
• Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST) reported FY26 NPAT of AU$1.7 billion, up 24%, while underlying NPAT rose 26% to AU$1.8 billion. For FY27, the company expects gold production of 1.50–1.65 million ounces at an AISC of AU$3,050–3,450 per ounce.
• NRW Holdings Limited (ASX: NWH) reported record FY26 revenue of AU$4.29 billion, up 31.4%, while underlying EBITA increased 38.8% to AU$288.6 million and underlying NPAT rose 43.6% to AU$182.7 million. FY27 underlying EBITA is expected at AU$320–330 million.
• Resolute Mining Limited (ASX: RSG) reported H1 2026 revenue of US$584.7 million, up 31%, while EBITDA increased 42% to US$323.9 million and NPAT reached US$162.6 million.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• AMP Limited (ASX: AMP): Dividend of AU$0.03 per share.
• FSA Group Limited (ASX: FSA): Dividend of AU$0.035 per share.
• GWA Group Limited (ASX: GWA): Dividend of AU$0.085 per share.
• Helia Group Limited (ASX: HLI): Dividend of AU$0.43 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:30 am AEST – Australia Employment Data: A key domestic catalyst, with employment and unemployment figures likely to influence expectations for the RBA’s next policy move.
• US Labour Market Data: Weekly jobless claims will be closely watched for further evidence of cooling or resilience in the US labour market.
• Bond Yields & Geopolitics: Movements in global bond yields and developments in the Middle East remain important drivers for equity valuations, commodity prices and overall risk sentiment.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicated a positive start, rising 27 points, supported by an overnight recovery on Wall Street.
• US equities returned to positive territory, snapping a three-session losing streak.
• US market breadth was notably strong, with the Equal Weight S&P 500 outperforming as Healthcare, Consumer Discretionary and Materials stocks advanced.
• US Treasury yields declined sharply after the Treasury unexpectedly increased planned buybacks of long-dated debt, providing relief to equity valuations.
• Precious metals rallied strongly, with gold posting its strongest gain since August 5 and silver also advancing sharply amid safe-haven demand and lower long-term yields.
• Bitcoin recorded its strongest rally since March, while the US dollar weakened to a three-month low as falling Treasury yields improved risk appetite.
• Geopolitical risks remained elevated, with ongoing US-Iran tensions and the UAE halting trade and financial transactions with Iran following alleged missile activity.
• US-Canada trade tensions eased temporarily after President Trump paused proposed 50% tariffs on Canadian goods for three days as negotiations continued.
• Federal Reserve minutes carried a hawkish tone, with several officials favouring an interest-rate increase at the July meeting.
• US fiscal concerns remained in focus, with public debt exceeding US$40 trillion for the first time and net interest payments reaching US$963 billion in the first ten months of fiscal 2026.

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