Mayank Bansal, CFA
Mayank Bansal is a CFA Charterholder and heads the Equity Research team at Kapitales Research, with over 5 years of experience analysing global equity markets. He leads fundamental, data-driven research combining rigorous financial analysis with macro trends.
ASX MARKET INSIGHT
Market Overview
The S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) gave back part of Thursday's surge on Friday, slipping 44.30 points or 0.49% to 9,020.80 as a heavy overnight sell-off in US technology stocks rippled through Asia, although the local market finished well off its worst levels. The Nasdaq sank 5.52% into correction territory on Thursday as investors priced in a slower and costlier AI build-out after the Democrats' midterm sweep, and the shock hit resource and growth names hardest at home. Seven of the 11 sectors closed lower. Materials was the weakest at −2.51% as gold fell about 1% and lithium and base-metal names were sold, with Develop Global (−10.127%) and Vulcan Energy Resources (−9.717%) the two heaviest fallers, while Consumer Staples led at +1.41% and the banks lent support, National Australia Bank (+2.669%) recovering part of Thursday's results-driven fall. Nine Entertainment topped the leaders board, up 11.643% after maintaining guidance, ahead of NextDC (+5.583%), which extended its stake-driven rally. The session traced a U-shape. The index opened near 8,965, about 100 points below Thursday's close, and slid to the session low near 8,922 at about 10.15am before a sharp recovery carried it through 9,000 to a morning peak near 9,025 at about 11.25am. Sellers returned around midday, pushing it back to roughly 8,965 by 12.30pm, and it then traded in a tight band between about 8,965 and 8,985 through to 2pm. A steady afternoon climb took it to near 8,995 by 2.35pm, and after a brief dip around 3.10pm, a late push from 3.20pm lifted it back through 9,000 to about 9,021 at 4pm, where it settled at 9,020.80. The intraday range was about 103 points, slightly narrower than Thursday's roughly 115, and the close sat just a few points below the day's high, a recovery of almost 100 points from the low. The All Ordinaries fell 0.66%, and the ASX notes the S&P/ASX 200 is up 1.27% over five sessions, from 1.95%, and is now 2.97% below its 52-week high, from 2.49% on Thursday.
Sector breadth tilted back toward the sellers, though the moves were far more contained than Thursday's. Four of the 11 sectors finished higher, down from eight, while seven closed lower. Consumer Staples led at +1.41%, lifting its five-day gain to 4.83%, followed by Financial (+0.55%), Telecommunication Services (+0.30%) and Utilities (+0.20%). On the downside, Materials was the weakest at −2.51%, ahead of A-REIT (−0.83%), Information Technology (−0.78%), Consumer Discretionary (−0.52%) and Health Care (−0.20%), while Energy (−0.08%) and Industrials (−0.02%) were virtually flat. The best-to-worst spread narrowed sharply to 3.92 percentage points from 14.85 on Thursday. The leadership turned over again: Information Technology and Materials, first and second on Thursday, dropped to ninth and eleventh, while Consumer Staples rose from fifth to first and Financial climbed from ninth to second. Consumer Staples rose for a fourth straight session, Financial snapped a two-day losing streak, Utilities edged back after Thursday's fall and Energy all but steadied after its slump, while Information Technology ended a three-day winning run.
Key Driver:
Market Sentiment / Vibe:
Friday opened under a cloud from offshore. On Wall Street on Thursday, the Dow Jones fell 1,833.06 points or 3.44% to 51,523.06, the S&P 500 dropped 4.36% to 7,353.73 and the Nasdaq sank 5.52% to 24,315.00, its worst session since April 2025 and enough to push it into correction territory, more than 10% below its 6 October record. Wednesday's post-midterm optimism gave way to concern that a Democratic Congress could slow the AI data-centre build-out through tighter regulation and pressure over rising power prices. Nvidia fell 9.26% and Tesla 10.77%. The shock spread across Asia, where Korea's Kospi fell more than 8% early, triggering a circuit breaker, and Japan's Nikkei dropped as much as about 6%. At home, the damage was more contained given the market's lighter technology weighting: breadth was weak, with about 154 decliners against 42 advancers, but staples and the banks absorbed the selling, and the index recovered almost 100 points from its morning low. Oil rebounded, with Brent near US$99.81/bbl, while gold slipped after Goldman Sachs cut its end-2026 forecast to US$4,150/oz. The Australian dollar eased about 0.5% to around 68.93 US cents. The mood at the close was cautious rather than fearful: the ASX lagged a global risk-off move only modestly, held most of Thursday's breakout and finished the week higher.
Sector Map | Heatmap
S&P/ASX 200 GICS sector performance at the closing bell. Four sectors finished higher and seven lower — Consumer Staples was the best at +1.41% and Materials the weakest at −2.51%, a best-to-worst spread of 3.92 percentage points, down from 14.85 on Thursday.
The Leaders & Laggards
Top 5 gainers and laggards from the S&P/ASX 200 universe at the closing bell.
Key Events
Commodity & Macro Watch
Data note — The Gold reading in the table above is published from Kapitales Research's own daily closing prices, and the daily move is measured between two consecutive stored closes. Figures for this indicator quoted elsewhere in this commentary are as written at the time of publication and may differ.
The Road Ahead
Our last wrap named 9,065–9,070 as first resistance, followed by 9,100 and 9,150–9,160, with support at 9,035–9,045, then 9,000–9,010 and 8,950–8,955, and said a close back below 9,000 would raise the risk of a retreat toward 8,950 and possibly a partial gap fill toward 8,880–8,887. Friday gapped below the first two support zones at the open and briefly broke 8,950–8,955, touching about 8,922, but buyers stepped in well short of the 8,880–8,887 gap-fill target. The index then reclaimed the 9,000–9,010 shelf twice, at the morning peak and again into the close, and finished at 9,020.80, above 9,000, so the downside condition we set was not triggered; the resistance levels were never tested. For next week, first resistance sits at 9,025–9,035, Friday's morning peak and closing area, followed by 9,065–9,070, Thursday's closing high, and the round 9,100 level. On the downside, 9,000–9,005 is first support, followed by the 8,965–8,975 floor that held through the middle of Friday's session and the 8,920–8,925 session low. A close above 9,070 would signal a renewed push toward 9,100 and 9,150–9,160, while a close below 8,965 would put the 8,920 low and the 8,880–8,887 gap-fill zone back in play.
The focus has shifted from the midterm result itself to what it means for AI investment. Wall Street's sharpest fall since April 2025 left the Nasdaq in correction, and whether US tech can stabilise into next week will set the tone for local growth names, particularly data-centre and semiconductor-linked stocks. Oil has bounced, with Brent near US$100 and WTI above US$91, trimming the week's losses to about 12% but reviving some of the inflation pressure that lower crude had eased. At home, Tuesday's consumer sentiment and business surveys will be the first major read on confidence since the 3 November rate rise, which flows through to most mortgages from 13 November. Gold has slipped back toward US$4,045/oz after Goldman Sachs trimmed its forecasts, while iron ore near US$93 a tonne offers Materials some support. NextDC will stay in focus after two days of gains, as will Macquarie following the APRA penalty.
Two threads to carry forward. First, resilience: the ASX fell less than 0.5% on a night when the Nasdaq lost more than 5% and Korean shares hit a circuit breaker, a reminder that the local market's heavy weighting to banks and staples cushions it against tech-led shocks, but also that its miners are exposed if the AI slowdown narrative spreads to copper and lithium demand. Second, the defensive tilt: staples rose for a fourth day and the banks rallied while materials, technology and property lagged, reversing much of Thursday's risk-on rotation. The index held above 9,000 at the close and is up 1.27% over five sessions, so the breakout remains intact for now; a sustained hold above 9,000 next week would support the case for a run toward the 52-week high, while a break below 8,965 would suggest Thursday's surge ran too far, too fast.
Note — All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.
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