Market Alert : Fed Hold or Hike—Will US Jobs Data Tip the Scales?

Mayank Bansal
Mayank Bansal, CFA
Mayank Bansal is a CFA Charterholder and heads the Equity Research team at Kapitales Research, with over 5 years of experience analysing global equity markets. He leads fundamental, data-driven research combining rigorous financial analysis with macro trends.

Can Coles’ Digital Surge and Supermarket Strength Keep FY27 Growth on Track?

Can Coles’ Digital Surge and Supermarket Strength Keep FY27 Growth on Track? Source: Kapitales Research

Coles Group Limited (ASX: COL) delivered a stronger FY26 earnings performance as supermarket momentum, digital expansion and tighter cost management lifted profitability. Announced on 25 August 2026, the results showed Group sales revenue rising 2.8% to AU$45.58 billion, while EBIT excluding significant items increased 9.9% to AU$2.32 billion. NPAT excluding significant items climbed 13.7% to AU$1.26 billion, although statutory NPAT rose a more modest 1.0% to AU$1.09 billion.Highlights:

  • Earnings accelerated: Underlying NPAT jumped 13.7% as profit growth comfortably outpaced sales.
  • Digital gained momentum: Supermarket eCommerce sales surged 26.4% to AU$5.6 billion.
  • Liquor remains the test: EBIT plunged 47.8%, sharpening focus on the turnaround strategy.

Supermarkets Drive EarningsSupermarkets remained the core earnings engine, with revenue increasing 3.7% to AU$41.47 billion and EBIT advancing 12.2% to AU$2.37 billion. The segment’s EBIT margin expanded 43 basis points to 5.7%, supported by operating leverage, productivity initiatives and disciplined cost control.

Digital growth was particularly notable. Supermarket eCommerce revenue reached AU$5.6 billion, lifting penetration to 13.6%. Coles’ Customer Fulfilment Centres also achieved positive EBITDA in their second year, indicating that rapid online expansion is increasingly translating into profitability.

Coles generated AU$311 million in Simplify and Save to Invest benefits during FY26, providing additional capacity to fund investment in stores, automation and technology.Liquor Clouds PerformanceThe Liquor division remained a weak spot. Revenue declined 3.3% to AU$3.55 billion, while EBIT dropped 47.8% to AU$59 million. Cost-of-living pressures, softer consumer sentiment and intense promotional activity weighed on performance. Coles has completed a strategic review and is pursuing network optimisation, a simpler operating model and a more integrated food-and-drink proposition.Dividend and FY27 OutlookShareholders will receive a fully franked 37-cent final dividend, taking FY26 dividends to 78 cents per share, up 13%. The final payment is scheduled for 22 September 2026.

Looking ahead, Coles enters FY27 with supermarket market-share momentum, profitable digital scaling and a stronger productivity base. However, execution on the Liquor turnaround and returns from increased investment will be important tests. Management plans to accelerate store openings and renewals while continuing investment in automation and technology, positioning operational execution as the key determinant of whether FY26’s earnings momentum can be sustained.Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.Disclaimer for Kapitales ResearchThe materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise. 

 

 

 

 

Customer Notice:

Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.Disclosure: The information mentioned above has been sourced from the company reports and a third-party database, i.e. Koyfin. Investors are advised to use strict stop-loss to protect their investments in case of any unfavorable/uncertain market events.

Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com.au