Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a flat start, edging 5 points (-0.05%) lower.
• Wall Street closed for the Labor Day holiday.
• European markets finish mixed amid thin trading conditions.
• AI optimism returns following OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra release.
• Kospi surges as Samsung and SK Hynix rally on memory-chip optimism.
• Nikkei gains as SoftBank and Kioxia benefit from renewed AI momentum.
• Brent crude rises 1.5% to US$97.30 per barrel.
• US-Iran strikes on shipping add to oil supply concerns.
• Copper hits a record high on the London Metal Exchange.
• Japanese yen weakens beyond 155 as Bank of Japan rate-hike expectations strengthen.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with trading activity relatively subdued as US markets remained closed for the Labor Day holiday. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones did not trade, limiting direction from Wall Street and leaving investors focused on developments across Europe and Asia. The FTSE 100 ended marginally lower as weakness in selected sectors offset support from energy-related stocks. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite also remained closed for the holiday.Across the Asia-Pacific region, sentiment was uneven. Japan’s Nikkei posted a strong advance, supported by renewed enthusiasm around artificial intelligence and semiconductor-related stocks. Technology shares benefited from improving expectations for AI infrastructure and memory-chip demand. In contrast, Indian equities declined as investors remained selective amid broader macroeconomic and global market uncertainties. New Zealand’s NZX 50 finished modestly lower, reflecting cautious regional sentiment. Overall, the session was characterised by strong technology-led momentum in Japan but softer performance across several other major markets.Commodities & Crypto

Commodities and cryptocurrency markets delivered a mixed performance as investors balanced geopolitical developments, shifting risk sentiment and expectations for global demand. Gold moved lower as safe-haven demand moderated, while silver edged higher, showing relative resilience across precious metals. Crude oil strengthened, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions and concerns over potential disruptions to global energy supplies. The advance in oil prices reinforced uncertainty around the near-term inflation outlook and energy costs.Industrial metals were softer, with copper retreating despite continued optimism around longer-term demand from electrification, renewable energy infrastructure and data-centre investment. The decline suggested some near-term profit-taking and caution over the global economic outlook. Meanwhile, Bitcoin weakened as cryptocurrency markets faced renewed selling pressure and softer risk appetite. Overall, energy markets were the strongest part of the commodity complex, while gold, copper and digital assets traded defensively amid an uncertain global macroeconomic environment.Bond Yields

Bond markets showed limited movement, with US Treasury markets closed for the Labor Day holiday and therefore offering no fresh trading signal. Australian government bonds experienced modest selling pressure, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield higher as investors continued to assess the domestic inflation outlook and expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy path. In Japan, the benchmark 10-year government bond yield remained elevated as markets continued to weigh the prospect of further monetary-policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. Expectations for tighter policy have remained an important driver of Japanese bond-market sentiment. Meanwhile, US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields were unchanged from their previous closing levels because of the market holiday. Overall, global bond sentiment remained cautious, with investors focused on inflation trends, central-bank policy expectations and upcoming economic indicators.Key Drivers

• US equity and bond markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday, resulting in relatively thin global trading.
• European markets finished mixed, with France and Italy advancing while Germany declined and the UK was broadly flat.
• South Korea’s Kospi surged 4.6%, driven by strong buying across semiconductor and AI hardware stocks.
• SK Hynix jumped 8.2% and Samsung gained 5.6% as renewed AI optimism boosted memory-chip demand expectations.
• Copper hit a record high on the LME, with three-month futures reaching US$14,533 per tonne.
• Fed rate-hike odds climbed to around 58% after August US payrolls rose by 162,000.
• ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to 2.5% this week, with markets fully pricing the move.
• Markets fully priced a 25-bps BoJ hike to 1.25% at the September policy meeting.
• Japan’s foreign reserves fell by a record US$79.6 billion in August following substantial yen intervention.
• Eurozone Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to 0.6%, from the previous 0.4% estimate.
• German industrial production dropped 1.1% in July, significantly weaker than expectations for modest growth.
• Eurozone investor confidence rose to 5.1 in September, its strongest reading since February 2022.
• China’s central bank purchased 650,000 ounces of gold in August, extending its buying streak to 22 months.
• Iran plans a new restricted Gulf zone and Hormuz shipping corridor, adding uncertainty around regional energy flows.
• Saudi Aramco’s Jizan oil facilities were hit again on Monday, with damage still being assessed; the complex includes a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery.
• China’s August trade surplus is forecast at US$119.05 billion, up from US$112.5 billion in July.

ASX Company News

• Elevra Lithium Limited (ASX: ELV) outlined a fully funded, staged expansion of its North American Lithium operation, targeting average annual production capacity of approximately 373,000 tonnes from a base case of 199,000 tonnes. The expansion carries estimated initial capital expenditure of US$271 million and is expected to reduce average life-of-mine C1 concentrate costs to about US$630 per dry metric tonne, while lifting the project’s post-tax NPV to approximately US$2.38 billion. FY26 production reached 197,967 dry metric tonnes, with revenue of US$202 million and cash of US$255 million at 30 June 2026.
• Chalice Mining Limited (ASX: CHN) reported initial assay results from first-pass RC drilling at the Deep Blue target within its Goomalling Copper Project in Western Australia, confirming a broad copper-silver-gold mineralised system over approximately 1.2 kilometres of strike. Key intersections included 21 metres at 0.18% copper, 0.67 grams per tonne silver and 0.03 grams per tonne gold from 50 metres, including 4 metres at 0.41% copper. Chalice has expanded its regional tenure across an approximately 30-kilometre prospective copper belt and plans further soil sampling, induced polarisation surveys and follow-up drilling from the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Black Cat Syndicate Limited (ASX: BC8) appointed Chris Stone as Acting Managing Director, effective 8 September 2026, while the company searches for a permanent replacement. Stone brings more than 35 years of mining-sector experience across gold, nickel, copper and coal and has previously held senior operational roles including Vice President WA Nickel at BHP.
• Core Lithium Ltd (ASX: CXO) produced its first spodumene concentrate from the recommissioned Finniss processing plant, marking a key milestone in the staged restart of the Finniss Lithium Operation. The restart was delivered within six months of the Final Investment Decision and in line with the company’s September quarter 2026 target. Targeted plant upgrades are expected to lift throughput capacity by approximately 20% to 1.2 million tonnes per annum. Core is continuing commissioning and optimisation activities and is targeting its first shipment of newly produced spodumene concentrate during the December quarter of 2026.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• AUB Group Limited (ASX: AUB) – AU$0.71
• BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL) – AU$1.35
• Channel Infrastructure NZ Limited (ASX: CHI) – AU$0.051
• Dusk Group Limited (ASX: DSK) – AU$0.016
• Mineral Resources Limited (ASX: MIN) – AU$0.83
• Motorcycle Holdings Limited (ASX: MTO) – AU$0.07
• News Corporation (ASX: NWS) – US$0.099
• Peet Limited (ASX: PPC) – AU$0.065
• Pepper Money Limited (ASX: PPM) – AU$0.072
• Perpetual Equity Investment Company Limited (ASX: PIC) – AU$0.04
• Regis Healthcare Limited (ASX: REG) – AU$0.094
• Saferoads Holdings Limited (ASX: SRH) – AU$0.005
• Smartgroup Corporation Limited (ASX: SIQ) – AU$0.215

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 10:30 am AEST – Australia Consumer Confidence: September sentiment will provide insight into household confidence amid elevated inflation, interest-rate expectations and cost-of-living pressures.
• 11:30 am AEST – Australia Business Confidence: August NAB data will offer a gauge of corporate sentiment and operating conditions across the Australian economy.
• 1:00 pm AEST – China Balance of Trade: August trade figures, including exports and imports, will be closely watched for signals on external demand.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a 5-point (-0.05%) decline as Wall Street closes for Labor Day; Europe ends mixed.
• US equity and bond markets were closed for the Labor Day holiday, keeping global trading relatively thin.
• European markets finished mixed, with France and Italy higher while Germany declined.
• South Korea’s Kospi surged 4.6%, driven by semiconductor and AI hardware stocks.
• SK Hynix jumped 8.2% and Samsung gained 5.6% on renewed AI and memory-chip optimism.
• Japan’s Nikkei advanced 2.12%, supported by renewed enthusiasm around AI and semiconductor stocks.
• Copper reached a record LME high, with three-month futures touching US$14,533 per tonne.
• Brent crude strengthened to around US$97.30 per barrel, as geopolitical tensions heightened supply concerns.
• Fed rate-hike expectations rose to around 58% after August payrolls increased by 162,000.
• ECB is expected to raise rates by 25 bps to 2.5%, with markets fully pricing the move.
• Markets fully priced a 25-bps BoJ hike to 1.25% at the September policy meeting.
• China’s August trade data is in focus today, with the trade surplus forecast at US$119.05 billion.

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