Can Ukraine’s Refinery Strikes Keep Brent Crude Above US$100 as Russia Adapts?

Highlights:

• Brent holds above US$100 as attacks deepen uncertainty around Russian fuel supplies.
• Kyiv claims over half of Russia’s refining capacity have been disabled.
• Rising fuel imports reveal how Moscow is adapting to mounting refinery disruptions.

Oil Prices Stay Elevated as Supply Risks Persist

Global oil markets remain supported by intensifying disruption across Russia’s downstream energy sector. Brent crude was trading near US$101.50 per barrel, up 0.88%, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude stood around US$90.10, gaining 0.74%.

Oil markets are entering a fresh phase of volatility as Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries collide with broader geopolitical tensions across the Middle East. Brent crude remains above US$100 per barrel, supported by disrupted refining capacity, higher freight and war-risk costs, tight inventories and constrained fuel availability. The key question is whether these pressures can keep oil prices elevated as producers and traders seek alternative supply routes.

The latest moves underline how geopolitical supply risks continue to place a premium on crude despite efforts to increase alternative supply. Brent’s ability to remain above US$100 is particularly significant as traders assess whether damaged Russian refining infrastructure could tighten global fuel markets even if crude itself remains available.

Russia’s flagship Urals crude exceeded US$92 per barrel at the end of September, yet stronger prices have not translated into stronger government receipts. Russian oil and gas tax revenue fell around 17% during the first nine months of 2026 as lower production, disrupted exports and a firmer rouble offset higher crude prices.

Ukrainian Strikes Put Russia’s Refineries Under Pressure

Ukraine has intensified long-range attacks against Russian energy infrastructure, targeting refineries stretching from western Russia to facilities deeper inside the country.

Kyiv’s Defence Ministry said more than 51% of Russia’s refining capacity had been disabled by Ukrainian strikes. The figure remains a Ukrainian assessment rather than an independently verified measure, and Moscow has not published equivalent damage estimates. Russia has nevertheless acknowledged economic consequences from attacks on its energy infrastructure.

The disruption matters because refining outages can create shortages of gasoline, diesel and other petroleum products even when crude production continues. Russia has already restricted some fuel exports as authorities attempt to protect domestic availability.

Fuel Imports Show Russia Is Finding Alternative Supply

Evidence that Russia is sourcing more refined fuel from overseas suggests Moscow is attempting to cushion the impact of lost processing capacity.

Russia sourced over 176,000 tonnes of petroleum products through South Korean ports in July and August, according to Ukraine’s sanctions commissioner. South Korean-origin shipments reportedly represented 31% of Russia’s fuel imports in August. Seoul has said it continues to enforce its export-control framework and support international efforts aimed at resolving the war.

The development highlights an important market dynamic: refinery damage may not automatically remove equivalent volumes of oil products from circulation if alternative suppliers can fill the gap.

Middle East Risks Add Another Layer of Support

Oil prices are also being supported by elevated geopolitical risk across the Middle East, where concerns over potential supply disruptions continue to influence market sentiment. Higher freight costs and war-risk insurance premiums have increased the expense of moving crude and refined products through key shipping routes, adding pressure across the energy supply chain.

At the same time, relatively tight inventories and constrained availability of refined fuels are limiting the market’s ability to absorb fresh disruptions. These conditions mean that even without a major loss of crude supply, heightened regional tensions can keep a risk premium embedded in oil prices. Combined with Russia’s refinery outages, the broader geopolitical backdrop is helping sustain Brent above the US$100-per-barrel threshold.

Outlook: Can US$100 Oil Hold?

For oil markets, the next phase will depend on whether Ukrainian attacks cause persistent rather than temporary reductions in Russian refining and export capacity. Continued disruptions could strengthen diesel and gasoline margins, support crude benchmarks and help keep Brent above the psychologically important US$100 level.

Middle East geopolitical tensions could provide an additional layer of price support, particularly if shipping risks intensify across key energy corridors. Expensive freight, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, tight inventories and constrained fuel supplies may keep a geopolitical premium embedded in crude prices.

However, higher production elsewhere, emergency stock releases and Russia’s ability to redirect crude or secure alternative refined-product supplies could limit further gains. The outlook therefore hinges on whether supply disruptions deepen faster than global markets can replace lost or delayed barrels.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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