Highlights

• Cinnamon’s Resource expanded 370%, strengthening Catalyst’s growth strategy.
• A maiden 232,000-ounce underground Reserve supports a 7.5-year plan.
• Strong project economics emerged as Catalyst shares declined approximately 6%.

Cinnamon Upgrade Draws Attention

Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) announced a substantial upgrade for its Cinnamon gold deposit on 21 September 2026. Despite the stronger development outlook, the company’s shares traded at a (CMP) of AU$6.290, marking a decline of approximately 6%.

The latest update strengthens Cinnamon’s potential role within Catalyst’s broader plan for the Plutonic Gold Belt in Western Australia. However, the contrasting share-price reaction suggests investors may be weighing the project’s execution requirements against its promising economics.

Gold Resource Climbs Sharply

Cinnamon’s total Mineral Resource increased 370% to 6.9 million tonnes grading 2.5 grams per tonne, containing 541,000 ounces of gold. This includes an open-pit Resource of 2.9 million tonnes at 1.2 grams per tonne for 108,000 ounces.

The underground Resource contains 4.0 million tonnes grading 3.4 grams per tonne for 434,000 ounces. Catalyst also reported a maiden probable underground Ore Reserve of 2.4 million tonnes at 3.0 grams per tonne, representing 232,000 ounces. The open-pit probable Reserve comprises 2.0 million tonnes grading 1.4 grams per tonne for 88,000 ounces.

Underground Economics Strengthen

The underground production target covers 3.3 million tonnes at 3.0 grams per tonne. The plan includes 315,000 mined ounces and 284,000 recovered ounces across an estimated 7.5-year operating life. Steady-state production is expected to average 48,000 ounces annually, within the forecast range of 40,000–50,000 ounces.

Using a gold price assumption of AU$4,500 per ounce, initial underground capital is estimated at AU$35 million. Life-of-mine all-in sustaining costs are forecast at AU$2,357 per ounce, while average annual steady-state free cash flow could reach AU$117 million. The pre-tax net present value stands at AU$408 million, accompanied by a pre-tax internal rate of return of 78%.

Under the AU$6,000-per-ounce scenario, pre-tax net present value increases to AU$726 million, annual free cash flow reaches AU$188 million and the internal rate of return rises to 126%.

Execution Remains the Test

Cinnamon is positioned to become the sixth ore source supporting Catalyst’s objective of lifting Plutonic Gold Belt production toward approximately 200,000 ounces annually. Ore would be transported 25 kilometres to the existing 2.0-million-tonne-per-year processing facility, with projected recoveries of 90% for underground material and 92% for open-pit ore.

Nevertheless, 26% of the underground production target is based on Inferred Resources carrying lower geological confidence. Further drilling, regulatory approvals and disciplined mine development will therefore shape Cinnamon’s progress—and may determine whether Catalyst’s falling ASX shares regain investor support.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

Disclaimer for Kapitales Research

The materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise.

Customer Notice:

Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.Disclosure: The information mentioned above has been sourced from the company reports and a third-party database, i.e. Koyfin. Investors are advised to use strict stop-loss to protect their investments in case of any unfavorable/uncertain market events.

Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com.au