Markets Today (01 October 2025) at Open: Key Trends from Wall Street to ASX

1. ASX Outlook

• The ASX SPI 200 futures are pointing slightly lower, down 0.12% to 8,862.
• Yesterday, the S&P/ASX 200 fell 14 points or 0.16% to close at 8,848.80. The weakest performers were IperionX (IPX) (-5.28%) and Beach Energy (-3.38%). The index is virtually unchanged over the last five days but sits 2.27% below its 52-week high.

2. Overnight US Markets:

Wall Street was modestly higher: S&P 500 up 0.41%, Dow +0.18%, Nasdaq +0.30%, while the Russell 2000 gained just 0.05%.

The Dow hit a fresh record high, while the S&P 500 extended its upward momentum.

3. US Sector Performance

Healthcare led the way with +2.45%, while Tech and Industrials also saw solid gains. Energy (-1.07%) and Financials (-0.45%) lagged.

4. Commodities

• Gold rose 0.69% to USD 3,859, continuing its strong run.
• Copper slipped 0.63% to USD 4.82 after recent strength.
• WTI Oil fell 1.46% to USD 62.43, reversing some of its earlier gains.

5. ASX Today – Key Headlines

China has banned new BHP iron ore cargoes amid a pricing dispute. While ADRs fell intraday, they recovered much of the losses, ending only 0.8% lower. The ban looks unsustainable given BHP supplies 12% of China’s imports.

Star Entertainment (SGR) reported a FY25 normalised net loss of $215.5m, slightly better than its unaudited estimate of $259m.

6. Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend

Today, stocks trading ex-dividend include:

Cedar Woods Properties (CWP) – $0.19, Nick Scali (NCK) – $0.33).

7. Broker Moves

Macquarie Technology Group was initiated as Outperform by Macquarie with a $97.30 price target.

8. Macro-Economic Calendar -few key announcements

9:00 am – Australia Ai Group Industry Index (Sep)

7:00 pm – Eurozone Inflation (Sep)

12:00 am – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

Our take at Kapitales Research:

The ASX looks set for a cautious open, tracking softer US tech sentiment and lower oil. However, record US benchmarks and strength in healthcare and gold could offer some support. BHP headlines will be closely watched today, but we see the iron ore dispute as more posturing than a lasting risk.

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