Markets Today (01 October 2026) at Open: Kapitales Morning Highlights from Wall Street to ASX

Headlines

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open, down 48 points (-0.54%).
• S&P 500 and Dow reverse early PCE-driven gains; Nasdaq closes higher.
• Softer August PCE cuts October Fed hike expectations to around 37%.
• Long-term Treasury yields remain near multi-decade highs, pressuring equities.
• Late-session volatility wipes out much of Wall Street’s earlier rally.
• Micron earnings remain a key catalyst for the AI memory-chip trade.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance, reflecting cautious investor sentiment across major regions. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones closed lower as late-session selling pressure erased earlier gains, while the Nasdaq Composite managed to finish in positive territory, supported by continued strength in technology shares. European markets were softer, with the FTSE 100 ending lower as investors assessed global growth concerns, bond-market volatility and the outlook for monetary policy. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite also declined, indicating broader weakness across North American equities. New Zealand’s NZX 50 advanced firmly, while Asian markets were led by a strong gain in Japan’s Nikkei. Indian equities were comparatively stable, ending marginally lower. Overall, market performance remained uneven, as elevated bond yields, monetary policy uncertainty and cautious investor sentiment continued to weigh on broader risk appetite.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity and cryptocurrency markets were mixed, reflecting divergent moves across energy, metals and digital assets. Gold edged lower as elevated bond yields and a firmer US dollar continued to weigh on precious metals sentiment. Silver also declined, broadly tracking weakness across the precious metals complex. In contrast, WTI crude oil advanced as energy markets remained supported by supply considerations and geopolitical developments. Copper moved higher, indicating continued underlying demand for industrial metals despite broader macroeconomic uncertainty.

Uranium weakened modestly, reflecting softer sentiment across the nuclear fuel market. Bitcoin was broadly stable, showing only a marginal move as cryptocurrency traders remained cautious amid changing expectations for US monetary policy and global risk appetite. Overall, the commodity complex presented a mixed picture, with strength in crude oil and copper offset by declines in gold, silver and uranium. Investors continued to monitor interest-rate expectations, currency movements, geopolitical risks and global demand conditions for further direction across major commodity and digital asset markets.

Bond Yields

Bond markets remained under pressure, with long-term yields staying elevated across major economies. Australia’s ten-year government bond yield moved higher, reflecting continued sensitivity to domestic inflation expectations and the outlook for Reserve Bank policy. Japan’s ten-year yield remained elevated as investors continued to assess the Bank of Japan’s policy trajectory and the possibility of further tightening.

In the United States, the ten-year Treasury yield was broadly steady, while the thirty-year yield eased only marginally and remained near multi-decade highs. The persistence of elevated long-dated US yields continued to signal investor concern around inflation, fiscal conditions and the path of interest rates. Overall, the bond market remained cautious, with yield movements suggesting that investors are still demanding higher compensation for holding longer-dated debt despite softer inflation signals.

Key Drivers

• US benchmarks finished mixed; the S&P 500 and Dow reversed gains, while the Nasdaq closed higher.
• The S&P 500 fell 0.45% in September, marking its weakest month since June.
• The US 30-year Treasury yield rose 6 bps to 5.63%, extending gains to a seventh session.
• US two-year and 10-year Treasury yields also moved higher despite softer inflation data.
• The US dollar gained 1.9% in September, its strongest monthly rise since June.
• Schwab said 52% of PCE components were still rising above 3%, keeping inflation breadth elevated.
• Micron Q4 FY26 revenue jumped 379% to a record US$54.23 billion.
• Micron’s core data-centre sales reached US$18 billion, while adjusted EPS came in at US$33.42.
• Boeing won a Pentagon contract worth more than US$20 billion for the US Navy’s F/A-XX fighter.
• Nvidia faces fresh competition as DeepSeek and Huawei open-source tools for Ascend chips.
• Iran said it received a formal US response to its latest Strait of Hormuz reopening proposal.
• Middle East Gulf crude exports excluding Iran recovered to at least 16.5 million barrels a day in September.
• Markets now price below a 37% chance of a 25 bp Fed hike in October, down from 70% a week earlier.
• Trump called for Jerome Powell to resign from the Federal Reserve board.
• US headline PCE inflation came in at 3.4% year-on-year versus 3.7% expected; core PCE was 3.0% versus 3.3%.
• ADP private payrolls rose by 90,000 in September, above the 68,000 estimates.
• US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 2.2% annualised from 1.5%.
• Australia’s trimmed mean CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, with annual core inflation holding at 3.6%.
• Australia’s headline inflation accelerated to 4.0%, prompting traders to trim November RBA hike expectations.
• China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 from 49.8, while non-manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.2 from 49.0.

ASX Company News

• Yancoal Australia Ltd (ASX: YAL) completed the acquisition of an 80% interest in the Kestrel Coal Mine in Queensland’s Bowen Basin. Yancoal paid upfront cash consideration of US$1.85 billion, funded through available cash and its five-year US$1.2 billion acquisition loan facility, while contingent consideration of up to US$550 million may become payable depending on benchmark coal prices.
• Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) agreed to acquire CPPIB’s 25% interest in NorthWestern Roads Group and 10.5% interest in Sydney Transport Partners for total cash consideration of AU$4.5 billion. Following completion, Transurban’s ownership will increase to 75.0% in NWRG, which owns Westlink M7 and NorthConnex, and 60.5% in STP, which owns WestConnex. The transaction is expected to complete during calendar 2027, subject to approvals.
• Metallium Limited (ASX: MTM) successfully completed a 12-hour multi-unit Flash Joule Heating chlorination campaign at its Texas Technology Campus using three FJH reactors and approximately 75 kg of PGM-bearing catalytic converter material. The programme completed 12 test cycles across three particle-size distributions and generated around 50 samples, supporting further process optimisation and scale-up toward commercial deployment.
• Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) entered into a binding Scheme Implementation Deed to acquire 100% of Meteoric Resources Limited (ASX: MEI) through an all-share transaction. The exchange ratio of 0.0207 Lynas shares for each Meteoric share implies an equity deal value of approximately AU$968 million on a fully diluted, 60-day Lynas VWAP basis. The transaction would add Meteoric’s Caldeira Rare Earth Project in Brazil to Lynas’ portfolio, with the project containing an estimated 802 kt of NdPr oxides and 41 kt of DyTb oxides within its reported Mineral Resources.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Cue Energy Resources Limited (ASX: CUE) – AU$0.003.
• Imperial Pacific Limited (ASX: IPC) – AU$0.08.
• Kip McGrath Education Centres Limited (ASX: KME) – AU$0.06.
• London City Equities Limited (ASX: LCE) – AU$0.025.
• Vulcan Steel Limited (ASX: VSL) – AU$0.038.
• WAM Strategic Value Limited (ASX: WAR) – AU$0.033.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:00 am AEST – Australia Balance of Trade: Markets will assess the latest trade figures for signals on export and import momentum, external demand and the broader health of Australia’s economy.
• Bond Yields: Investors will monitor Australian and US government bond yields as elevated borrowing costs continue to influence equity-market sentiment.
• Oil Prices: Crude prices remain in focus amid Middle East developments and their potential implications for inflation and energy costs.
• US Monetary Policy: Markets will watch shifting Federal Reserve rate expectations following softer US inflation data and recent moves in Treasury yields.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open, down 48 points (-0.54%), as the US 30-year Treasury yield holds at its highest level since 2002.
• Wall Street finished mixed, with the S&P 500 and Dow lower while the Nasdaq gained.
• The S&P 500 fell 0.45% in September, its weakest month since June.
• US 30-year Treasury yield rose to 5.63%, extending gains to a seventh session.
• The US dollar gained 1.9% in September, its strongest monthly rise since June.
• October Fed hike odds fell below 37%, down sharply from 70% a week earlier.
• Micron Q4 FY26 revenue surged 379% to a record US$54.23 billion.
• WTI crude gained 1.16%, while gold and silver declined 0.61% and 0.63%.
• US private payrolls increased by 90,000 in September, beating the 68,000 estimates.
• US Q2 GDP growth was revised higher to 2.2% annualised from 1.5%.

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