Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive start, rising 18 points (+0.20%).
• Wall Street rebounds, snapping a four-session losing streak as US benchmarks recover.
• August headline CPI lands in line with expectations, providing some relief on inflation concerns.
• Markets price roughly 86% odds of a 25 bp Fed increase on Thursday.
• Brent crude settled near US$104 after approaching US$110 following the Saudi pipeline shutdown.
• Energy prices remain the key macro risk, with higher oil potentially adding to inflation pressures.
• Hormuz diplomacy remains stalled, maintaining geopolitical uncertainty and upside risks for oil prices.
• Brent rebounds to around US$107 this morning, keeping energy-market concerns elevated.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance, with Wall Street rebounding strongly after four consecutive sessions of losses. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones all advanced, supported by improved investor sentiment following the latest US inflation data and some relief in energy markets. European equities also strengthened, with the FTSE 100 ending higher as investors assessed inflation, monetary policy expectations and geopolitical developments. Canadian equities followed the positive global lead, with the S&P/TSX Composite finishing in positive territory.New Zealand’s NZX 50 declined, indicating weaker sentiment in the domestic market. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei recorded a notably sharper fall, reflecting softer risk appetite, while Indian equities also edged lower. Overall, global sentiment improved across US, UK and Canadian markets, while weakness in New Zealand, Japan and India highlighted uneven performance across international equity markets amid persistent inflation, interest-rate and geopolitical uncertainties.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets were mixed, with precious metals gaining while energy and key industrial commodities weakened. Gold advanced as demand for defensive assets remained supported amid persistent geopolitical and monetary-policy uncertainty. Silver also advanced modestly, supported by continued demand for precious metals. In contrast, WTI crude oil declined sharply, easing some of the recent pressure created by elevated energy prices, although crude remained at historically high levels following significant geopolitical disruptions.Industrial commodities remained under pressure, with copper extending its decline as investors weighed global growth prospects and broader risk sentiment. Uranium also fell notably, recording the weakest performance among the commodities listed and signalling continued volatility across the resource complex. In digital assets, Bitcoin edged lower and remained around recent levels as investors maintained a cautious stance toward risk-sensitive assets. Overall, precious metals showed relative resilience, while weakness in crude oil, copper and uranium pointed to a more defensive and uneven tone across commodity markets.Bond Yields

Global bond markets remain under pressure, with stubborn inflation and hawkish policy expectations keeping borrowing costs uncomfortably high. Australian government bond yields climbed further, reinforcing concerns that restrictive monetary conditions could persist and weigh on equity valuations, household spending and economic activity. Japanese government bond yields also advanced, adding pressure as markets brace for tighter domestic financial conditions.US Treasury yields eased only marginally, offering little genuine relief after their recent surge. Long-term yields remain elevated as persistent inflation keeps expectations for tighter Federal Reserve policy firmly in play. The modest decline in US yields does little to change the broader picture: global financial conditions remain restrictive and investors face little room for complacency. Rising Australian and Japanese yields underline mounting pressure across developed markets. Overall, elevated bond yields, stubborn inflation, expensive energy and geopolitical uncertainty continue to create a difficult backdrop for risk assets and could keep equity valuations under sustained pressure.Key Drivers

• US benchmarks closed higher, snapping a four-session losing streak for the S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq.
• US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.97%, around its highest level since October 2023.
• US 2-year yield climbed above 4.6%, reflecting a sharp repricing toward a Fed rate hike this week.
• Brent crude fell 4.5% to US$104.31 on Friday but still gained 8.8% for the week.
• Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline following multiple drone attacks, disrupting a key Hormuz bypass route.
• The Saudi pipeline had been transporting up to five million barrels per day toward the Red Sea.
• Monday’s Hormuz meeting between Iran and Gulf nations was postponed, delaying progress on a temporary shipping-lane agreement.
• Markets price roughly an 86% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate increase this week.
• Traders are also pricing two full Fed rate increases by the end of the year.
• US headline CPI increased 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, both in line with expectations.
• US core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, exceeding the 0.2% forecast and reinforcing concerns over persistent inflation.
• Japan’s producer prices rose 7.6% year-on-year in August, strengthening the case for further BoJ tightening.
• Markets are close to fully pricing a BoJ rate increase to 1.25% from 1.00%.
• Oracle reported 30% revenue growth, while cloud infrastructure revenue surged 121%, but shares still closed nearly 2% lower.
• Adobe delivered higher quarterly revenue and earnings, but softer-than-expected guidance weighed on its shares.
• UK GDP expanded 0.4% month-on-month and 1.6% year-on-year in July, beating market expectations.

ASX Company News

• FleetPartners Group Limited (ASX: FPR) received revised non-binding indicative offers from SG Fleet at AU$4.55 per share, ORIX at AU$4.65 per share and the Sumitomo Consortium at AU$4.65 per share to acquire 100% of the company via a scheme of arrangement. Element decided not to submit a revised proposal, while FleetPartners granted the remaining three bidders’ access to a further due diligence phase.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: TLX) received US FDA approval for Pixclara, making it the first FDA-approved FET-PET imaging drug for glioma. Pixclara is indicated to help differentiate recurrent or progressive glioma from treatment-related changes in adults and paediatric patients aged one month and older, addressing an estimated 24,000 new US glioma cases annually.
• Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) increased the Trident underground Ore Reserve by 32% to 524koz at 4.2g/t gold, supporting an anticipated mine life of more than 10 years at steady-state annual production of 60–80koz. Underground development is underway with 250 metres completed, while first ore is expected in CY2027 as Catalyst works toward its broader target of approximately 200koz annual production from the Plutonic Gold Belt.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Chorus Limited (ASX: CNU) – AU$0.256
• Credit Corp Group Limited (ASX: CCP) – AU$0.455
• Glennon Small Companies Limited (ASX: GC1) – AU$0.020
• Kelsian Group Limited (ASX: KLS) – AU$0.100
• Saunders International Limited (ASX: SND) – AU$0.010
• Virgin Australia Holdings Limited (ASX: VGN) – AU$0.076
• WCM Global Growth Limited (ASX: WQG) – AU$0.024

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 10:30 pm AEST – Canada Inflation: Markets will closely watch the latest inflation reading for signs of persistent price pressures and its potential impact on the Bank of Canada’s interest-rate outlook.
• Global Bond Yields: Elevated yields remain a major headwind for equity valuations as markets brace for key central-bank decisions.
• Oil & Geopolitics: Elevated crude prices and uncertainty around Hormuz remain major inflation risks and could drive volatility across global markets.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive start, rising 18 points (+0.20%), after Wall Street rebounded on Friday.
• Wall Street rebounded, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow snapping four-session losing streaks.
• US headline CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month and 3.4% year-on-year in August, both in line with expectations.
• Core CPI increased 0.3% month-on-month, above the 0.2% forecast and reinforcing persistent inflation concerns.
• Markets price roughly an 86% probability of a 25 bp Fed rate increase this week, with two hikes priced by year-end.
• US 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.97%, around its highest level since October 2023.
• Brent crude rebounds to around US$107 this morning, keeping oil-market risks elevated amid persistent geopolitical and supply concerns.
• Saudi Arabia shut its East-West crude pipeline after multiple drone attacks, disrupting a major alternative route to Hormuz.
• The Hormuz meeting between Iran and Gulf nations was postponed, delaying progress on a temporary shipping-lane agreement.
• Gold advanced 0.76%, while copper declined 0.56% and uranium dropped 3.05%.
• Japan’s producer prices rose 7.6% year-on-year in August, strengthening expectations for further Bank of Japan tightening.
• Elevated bond yields and high oil prices remain key risks to watch, as persistent inflation pressures could weigh on equity valuations and broader risk sentiment.

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