Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a 104-point (-1.19%) decline, signalling a sharply weaker Australian open after Wall Street losses and surging bond yields.
• Wall Street closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.75% and the Nasdaq 1.13% weaker as a strong US PMI reading intensified rate concerns.
• US 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.0%, reaching its highest level since 2007 as markets repriced the interest-rate outlook.
• Brent crude rebounded above US$103 a barrel, gaining more than 4% as Middle East supply risks and tight diesel markets returned to focus.
• Trump-Xi talks are in focus, with the US-China trade truce, rare-earth supply chains and AI safeguards among key issues surrounding the Washington meeting.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded with a broadly cautious tone, led by weakness across the United States and Canada. Wall Street finished lower as rising bond yields and renewed rate concerns weighed on risk appetite, with technology shares facing the heaviest pressure. The Dow Jones also retreated, reflecting softer sentiment across cyclical and rate-sensitive sectors. European markets were comparatively resilient, with the FTSE 100 ending almost unchanged as defensive shares helped limit broader losses.

Canadian equities underperformed, with the S&P/TSX Composite posting a notably weaker session amid pressure from resource and growth-oriented stocks. New Zealand’s NZX 50 also closed lower. In Asia, Japan’s equity market was closed for the session, leaving no fresh Nikkei trading signal. Indian equities moved higher, providing a modest positive contrast to the generally softer global backdrop. Overall, sentiment remained defensive as investors assessed tighter financial conditions, elevated yields and renewed uncertainty around the global interest-rate outlook.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity and cryptocurrency markets were mostly lower, with broad weakness across precious metals, industrial commodities and digital assets. Gold retreated as rising bond yields and a firmer interest-rate outlook reduced demand for non-yielding assets, while silver also came under pressure. Copper edged lower amid concerns that tighter financial conditions could weigh on global industrial demand.

Uranium recorded a sharper decline, extending the generally weak tone across the commodity complex. WTI crude oil was the major exception, advancing as renewed supply concerns and geopolitical risks in the Middle East supported energy prices.

Bitcoin also declined as investors reduced exposure to higher-risk assets amid softer equity markets and elevated bond yields. Overall, the session was characterised by broad-based weakness across commodities and crypto, with crude oil standing out as the key outperformer.

Bond Yields

Bond markets remained under pressure, with Australian yields showing the sharpest move. The Australian 10-year government bond yield climbed further, reinforcing tighter financial conditions and increasing pressure on equity valuations, housing-sensitive sectors and corporate funding costs.

US Treasury yields stayed elevated near multi-year highs despite a modest easing in the latest session. The US 10-year and 30-year yields slipped slightly, but both remained at restrictive levels that continue to challenge risk assets and support a higher-for-longer rates narrative.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield was unchanged. Overall, global bond yields remain uncomfortably high, keeping financial conditions tight and leaving equity markets vulnerable to further repricing if inflation or economic data remain stronger than expected.

Key Drivers

• US equities closed near session lows after stronger-than-expected PMI data reignited concerns over further Federal Reserve tightening.
• US 10-year Treasury yields jumped to around 5.11%, reaching their highest level since 2007 as investors repriced the rate outlook.
• US 5-year yields moved above 5%, with weak auction demand adding pressure across the Treasury market.
• The US Dollar Index strengthened, extending its September advance as higher yields supported the greenback.
• Brent crude rebounded above US$103 a barrel, snapping a five-session losing streak as Hormuz risks and tight fuel supply returned to focus.
• Gold and silver declined sharply, pressured by stronger US data, rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar.
• Copper retreated from near-record levels after a six-session advance as traders assessed hawkish Fed signals and broader macro risks.
• European diesel margins surged to record levels, reflecting concerns over tight supply and uncertainty around potential US export restrictions.
• The Australian dollar weakened, while the Japanese yen remained under pressure as the US dollar strengthened.
• Disney announced another streaming price increase, raising subscription costs across key Disney+ and Hulu plans.
• Apple launched upgraded Mac mini and Mac Studio models, targeting corporate demand for locally processed AI workloads.
• Iran maintained a hard line on the Strait of Hormuz, while also signalling that reopening could be possible if US military and naval pressure eases.
• Trump-Xi talks remain a major market focus, with trade, rare-earth supply, technology and the tariff truce among the key issues. The current trade truce is scheduled to end on 10 November.
• Federal Reserve officials continued to signal inflation concerns, keeping expectations for further policy tightening elevated.
• US manufacturing and services activity strengthened sharply, reinforcing the view that economic momentum remains firm despite restrictive monetary policy.
• RBA Governor Michele Bullock said Australia’s labour market remains too tight, with wage and cost pressures still feeding inflation ahead of the 28–29 September policy meeting.
• Global debt reached a fresh record, highlighting mounting interest-cost pressure as higher borrowing costs persist across developed economies.

ASX Company News

• Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Company Limited (ASX: SOL) reported a strong FY26 result for the year ended 31 July 2026, with post-tax net asset value rising to AU$14.5 billion and net cash flow from investments increasing to AU$572 million. The company declared a fully franked final dividend of 63 cents per share, marking its 28th consecutive year of dividend growth, while total available liquidity stood at AU$3.8 billion.
• Forrestania Resources Limited (ASX: FRS) increased the JORC Mineral Resource Estimate for its British Hill gold deposit to 4.12 million tonnes at 1.60 grams per tonne gold for 212,400 ounces, representing a 21% increase from the previous estimate. The Indicated Resource rose to 2.65 million tonnes at 1.62 grams per tonne for 138,100 ounces, while drilling continues to test extensions along strike and at depth.
• GenusPlus Group Limited (ASX: GNP) secured a Design and Construct contract from Atmos Renewables for electrical infrastructure works at the 470-megawatt Parron Maam Marang Farm Project in Western Australia. The contract, valued at approximately AU$135 million including early works, covers a 330 kilovolt terminal, transmission lines and associated infrastructure, with completion scheduled for 2028 subject to customary conditions precedent.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Bisalloy Steel Group Limited (ASX: BIS) – AU$0.130
• Briscoe Group Australasia Limited (ASX: BGP) – NZ$0.117

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Yields back above 5%: The US 10-year yield has moved back above 5%, while the 2-year yield surged, tightening financial conditions and increasing pressure on growth and rate-sensitive equities.
• Oil back above US$100: Brent’s rebound to around US$103 a barrel brings inflation risk straight back into focus and could complicate the outlook for central banks already dealing with sticky price pressures.
• Stronger US dollar: The US Dollar Index has extended its sharp September rebound, creating another headwind for commodities, emerging markets and risk assets while adding pressure on the Australian dollar.
• Miners face a difficult session: Weakness across gold, copper, uranium and rare-earth exposures points to a soft open for Australian resource stocks, with metals prices and mining-linked ETFs signalling broad selling pressure.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a 104-point decline, signalling a weak Australian open.
• Wall Street closed lower, with technology shares under particular pressure as stronger US PMI data revived rate concerns.
• US 10-year Treasury yields moved above 5%, reaching their highest level since 2007 as markets repriced the interest-rate outlook.
• US 5-year yields also moved above 5%, with weak auction demand adding to pressure across the Treasury market.
• Brent crude rebounded above US$103 a barrel, supported by Hormuz risks and tight fuel-market conditions.
• Gold and silver fell sharply, pressured by stronger US data, higher yields and a firmer US dollar.
• Copper retreated from near-record levels after a six-session advance as traders weighed hawkish Fed signals.
• The US Dollar Index strengthened further, extending its September advance and adding pressure on the Australian dollar.
• Federal Reserve officials remained focused on inflation, keeping expectations for further tightening elevated.
• US manufacturing and services activity strengthened sharply, signalling resilient economic momentum despite restrictive monetary policy.
• Trump-Xi talks are a major market focus, with trade, rare-earth supply, technology and the tariff truce among the key issues.
• RBA Governor Michele Bullock said Australia’s labour market remains too tight, keeping domestic inflation and interest-rate risks firmly in focus.

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