Highlights:

• Emerging economies could lift energy demand more than 60% by 2060.
• Renewables will surge, yet fossil fuels may retain a surprisingly large role.
• Meeting new demand could test investment, grids and global climate ambitions.

Developing Economies Reshape Global Energy Demand

The centre of global energy consumption is shifting rapidly towards emerging and developing economies as industrialisation, urbanisation and rising incomes increase demand for reliable power.

Recent energy-market analysis estimates that demand across emerging markets and developing economies could rise by more than 60% by 2060 under a current-policy trajectory. That expansion could add roughly 155 exajoules to the global energy system, an increase broadly comparable with China’s current energy consumption.

Countries including India, Brazil, Indonesia and Nigeria are expected to play increasingly important roles as economic expansion drives higher electricity use, transportation requirements and industrial activity.

Renewables Rise, but Fossil Fuels Persist

Clean-energy capacity is expected to expand strongly, particularly as falling technology costs improve the competitiveness and accessibility of solar, wind and other renewable sources. However, analysts suggest that growing energy requirements may prevent conventional fuels from being displaced quickly. Instead, the global energy mix could remain diverse for decades.

Under current market and policy assumptions:

• Fossil fuels could still provide around 60% of global energy in 2060.
• Oil demand could ease only modestly to about 93 million barrels per day.
• Natural gas consumption could rise by more than one-third by 2060.
• Coal use could decline about 40% while remaining important in several developing economies.

The projections indicate that the transition may increasingly involve adding renewable capacity alongside established energy sources rather than rapidly replacing them.

Investment Challenge Moves into Focus

The scale of infrastructure required creates another major challenge. Industry projections suggest cumulative investment in electricity generation, storage, transmission and distribution could reach about US$50 trillion through 2060 under a faster decarbonisation scenario.

Solar and wind capacity would need to expand substantially, while power networks would require significant upgrades to manage rising electricity consumption and more variable renewable generation.

Outlook: Energy Growth Redefines the Transition

Developing economies are likely to shape the next phase of the global energy transition. Their central challenge will be balancing affordability, energy security and economic development with pressure to reduce emissions.

For governments, energy producers and investors, the key issue is becoming broader than renewable growth alone. The bigger test will be whether infrastructure, financing and supply chains can expand quickly enough to support a historic rise in global energy demand while maintaining reliability and advancing longer-term climate objectives.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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