Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a flat open, edging up just 3 points (+0.03%).
• US benchmarks closed higher, near session highs, as US-Iran diplomacy hopes pushed oil lower and eased pressure on Treasury yields.
• Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and advance peace talks.
• Iran maintains that reopening Hormuz depends on its stated conditions being met.
• US-China tariff relief covers US$30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction.
• China agreed to buy 10 million tonnes of US coal in both 2027 and 2028.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets ended broadly higher, with Wall Street leading gains after a volatile trading week. The Dow Jones outperformed its major US peers, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also closed firmly in positive territory as investor sentiment improved. In Europe, the FTSE 100 edged higher, reflecting a cautious but constructive tone across UK equities. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite also advanced, supported by steady risk appetite across North American markets.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei delivered the strongest performance among the major regional benchmarks, extending its upward momentum, while Indian equities also finished higher. In Oceania, New Zealand’s NZX 50 was the only major benchmark in the group to close lower, although the decline remained modest. Overall, the session reflected broad-based strength across developed markets, with US and Japanese equities showing the clearest momentum, while European, Canadian and Indian markets recorded more measured gains and New Zealand lagged the wider global trend.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets were mixed, with precious metals outperforming while energy and industrial commodities weakened. Silver recorded the strongest gain among the listed assets, supported by firmer demand for defensive and precious-metal exposure, while gold also moved higher. In energy markets, WTI crude declined sharply, reflecting softer sentiment around near-term supply risks and easing geopolitical concerns. Copper edged lower, pointing to a more cautious tone across industrial metals, while uranium also slipped modestly.

Cryptocurrency markets remained relatively stable, with Bitcoin edging higher during the session. Overall, commodity trading showed a clear divergence between stronger precious metals and weaker energy and industrial assets, while Bitcoin recorded a modest advance in the digital-asset market.

Bond Yields

Bond markets showed mixed movements, with Australian and Japanese government yields easing slightly while longer-dated US Treasury yields moved higher. Australia’s ten-year bond yield edged lower, while Japan’s ten-year yield also softened marginally. However, both remain at elevated levels, keeping borrowing costs high and maintaining pressure on rate-sensitive assets.

In contrast, US Treasury yields moved upward, with the thirty-year yield recording a larger increase than the ten-year benchmark. The rise at the long end of the US curve suggests investors continued to demand greater compensation for longer-term inflation, fiscal and interest-rate risks. Overall, the session reflected a divergence between modest yield declines in Australia and Japan and renewed upward pressure on US government borrowing costs. The comparatively stronger move in long-dated US yields keeps attention on inflation expectations, monetary-policy prospects and fiscal conditions, all of which remain important drivers of global fixed-income markets.

Key Drivers

• US benchmarks finished higher, supported by early hopes of a US-Iran breakthrough.
• S&P 500 gained 1.2% for the week, while the Nasdaq advanced 2%.
• Eight of 11 S&P sectors rose, led by Technology.
• Real Estate, Communication Services and Energy sectors declined.
• US Treasury yields steadied after a bruising week in global bond markets.
• The US 10-year yield eased after hitting its highest since June 2007.
• The US 30-year yield held near 5.49%, its highest level since 2004.
• Iran diplomacy hopes pressured oil prices, helping calm Treasury-market volatility.
• Brent crude fell 3.2% to US$101.8 a barrel, ending a two-day winning streak.
• Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz proposal, weakening expectations for immediate de-escalation.
• Iran said it would not soften its conditions and awaited a formal US response.
• Trump expects negotiations with Iran to continue despite rejecting the ceasefire offer.
• US and China agreed tariff cuts on US$30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction.
• China committed to import at least 10 million tonnes of US coal in both 2027 and 2028.
• The US-China trade truce was extended until January following Xi’s Washington visit.
• RBA decision is due on 29 September, with surveyed economists expecting a rate increase.
• US consumer sentiment fell to a four-month low, while inflation expectations climbed.

ASX Company News

• St Barbara Limited (ASX: SBM) released a series of updates across its Nova Scotia strategy, including an updated PFS for the 15-Mile Processing Hub, accelerated exploration and its September investor presentation. The updated PFS increased Ore Reserves by 17% to 1.44 Moz, extended mine life to 13 years and lifted life-of-mine gold production to 1.377 Moz, with average annual production of 106 koz and LOM AISC of US$1,098/oz. At a US$3,000/oz gold price, the project delivers a post-tax NPV₅ of AU$1.705 billion and IRR of 81.6%, with initial capital estimated at AU$315 million. St Barbara also prioritised Old Austen Down-Plunge and Mill Shaft West for future drilling, while planning Touquoy restart production by the end of calendar 2026 and targeting 15-Mile FID by the end of FY27. The company also outlined a pro-forma cash position of about AU$880 million following completion of the New Simberi transaction.
• Northern Star Resources Limited (ASX: NST) confirmed it rejected a confidential, unsolicited and conditional non-binding takeover proposal from Gold Fields Limited. The proposal offered 0.3125 Gold Fields shares plus AU$7.25 cash for each Northern Star share, implying AU$27.00 per share and an equity value of AU$38.7 billion based on 11 September prices, representing a 22% premium to Northern Star’s closing price. The Board unanimously rejected the approach, saying it materially undervalued the company, carried a large equity component and exposed shareholders to additional jurisdictional and operational risks. Northern Star informed Gold Fields on 25 September that it did not consider further engagement appropriate.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Shine Justice Limited (ASX: SHJ) – AU$0.025.
• Viva Leisure Limited (ASX: VVA) – AU$0.030.
• Lindsay Australia Limited (ASX: LAU) – AU$0.017.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• RBA Rate Decision: Markets are focused on the RBA’s 29 September policy decision amid elevated inflation and bond yields.
• US-Iran Developments: Trump’s rejection of Iran’s Hormuz proposal keeps geopolitical and energy-market risks elevated.
• Bond Yield Pressure: Elevated US and Australian yields remain a key risk for equities and rate-sensitive sectors.
• US-China Trade: Tariff relief and the extended trade truce could support sentiment around China-exposed ASX companies.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a flat open, up 3 points (+0.03%), as the S&P 500 books a weekly gain and Trump rejects Iran’s Hormuz proposal.
• US benchmarks closed higher, with the Dow leading gains.
• Technology led sector gains, with eight of 11 S&P sectors higher.
• Trump rejected Iran’s Hormuz proposal, reducing near-term de-escalation hopes.
• Iran maintained its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Brent crude fell 3.2% to US$101.8 a barrel on diplomacy hopes.
• US 10-year yields remained elevated, after reaching the highest since June 2007.
• US-China tariff relief covers US$30 billion of non-sensitive goods in each direction.
• The US-China trade truce was extended into January.
• RBA decision is due on 29 September, with markets focused on a potential rate increase.

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