Highlights

• Governor Michele Bullock said the September quarter inflation figures, due next month, will only confirm price pressures that the RBA already knows about.
• The RBA increased the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026, marking its fourth rate hike of the year.
• The central bank says it is focused on inflation six months ahead and has left the door open to further hikes.

Bullock: September Numbers Are "Already Done"

Speaking on 29 September 2026, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock said the upcoming inflation data is unlikely to change the bank's thinking. The Australian Bureau of Statistics is expected to release quarterly inflation data covering the three months to September next month. Bullock said those numbers are unlikely to stop the RBA from considering further increases to the cash rate.

She explained that the September quarter figures will mainly confirm what policymakers already know: inflation pressures were high in the first half of 2026. Because those price rises have already happened, Bullock noted that the RBA cannot influence them now.

Looking Six Months Ahead

Bullock said the more important question is whether interest rates have risen enough. The test, in her view, is whether inflation data about six months from now will show demand slowing relative to the economy's supply capacity. This forward-looking approach suggests the RBA will focus less on backward-looking data and more on where it expects inflation to be heading.

Fourth Rate Hike of 2026

Bullock's comments came on the same day as the RBA's latest decision. At its meeting on 29 September 2026, the Board raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60%, saying inflation remains high and some of the upside risks it flagged in August are now playing out. The decision was unanimous, and it takes the cash rate to its highest level in 15 years.

The RBA pointed to several sources of pressure. The expansion of the Middle East conflict has driven global energy prices significantly above the levels projected in the August forecasts. Meanwhile, strong AI-related demand is adding to international technology goods prices, while ongoing constraints on domestic capacity continue to fuel price pressures.

Business liaison shows firms facing higher costs and either raising prices or planning to.

Door Left Open to More Rate Rises

The Board acknowledged that its policy is already having an effect. It said the three earlier rate increases this year have tightened financial conditions and the economy appears to be slowing. The RBA said it remains prepared to take further action, including raising the cash rate again if required, to ensure inflation returns to its target on a sustainable basis. Bullock told reporters that the Board considered both holding rates steady and raising them by 25 basis points at the September meeting.

What It Means for Borrowers

Lenders are already responding. Macquarie Bank will pass on the full 0.25 percentage-point increase, raising its variable home loan reference rates by 0.25% per annum from October. Almost half of the financial experts surveyed by Finder believe mortgage holders should prepare for another hike in November. With Bullock signalling that the next inflation release is unlikely to change the RBA's view, borrowers may face higher rates for some time.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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