Mayank Bansal, CFA
Mayank Bansal is a CFA Charterholder and heads the Equity Research team at Kapitales Research, with over 5 years of experience analysing global equity markets. He leads fundamental, data-driven research combining rigorous financial analysis with macro trends.
Australia’s Export Prices Rise 1.4% as Import Costs Unexpectedly Fall in September Quarter
Highlights:
Australia's Trade Prices Move in Opposite Directions
Australia recorded contrasting movements in international trade prices during the September quarter of 2026, as export prices strengthened while import costs unexpectedly declined. The Export Price Index increased 1.4% quarter-on-quarter, accelerating from 1.1% in the preceding quarter. Meanwhile, the Import Price Index fell 1.1%, reversing the previous quarter's 5.7% increase and defying expectations of a 1.3% rise.
The divergence suggests an improvement in Australia's export-to-import price relationship, potentially supporting national income and easing selected business costs.
Energy Commodities Drive Export Growth
Export prices recorded their strongest quarterly increase since December 2025, marking four consecutive quarters of growth.
Several commodity categories influenced the latest performance:
However, metalliferous ores and metal scrap declined 6.4%, while non-monetary gold prices decreased 4.8%. Overall, Australian export prices stood 6.3% above their year-earlier level.
Import Costs Offer Mixed Signals
Lower energy and agricultural input costs contributed to the unexpected reduction in import prices. Petroleum-related products declined 8.7%, while fertiliser prices dropped 20.2%, reflecting improved supply availability and reduced transportation disruptions.
However, technology-related imports remained expensive. Office and data-processing machinery prices increased 7.3%, while telecommunications equipment advanced 4.1%, highlighting persistent demand and supply-chain pressures.
Outlook: Trade Conditions Remain Uncertain
The contrasting price movements could improve Australia's terms of trade and provide selective relief from imported inflation.
However, sustained benefits will depend on global energy markets, Chinese industrial demand and international supply conditions.
For Australian businesses, cheaper imports may support operating margins, while stronger export prices could benefit commodity producers. Nevertheless, renewed geopolitical disruptions and fluctuating resource prices remain significant risks to Australia's trade outlook.
Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.
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