Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a 0.95% lower open, despite easing geopolitical tensions after the US paused planned strikes on Iran.
• US equities ended mostly higher, led by Amazon’s strongest rally in over a decade.
• President Trump paused planned Iran strikes after reported progress on Strait of Hormuz talks.
• Apple declined while higher long-term US Treasury yields continued to pressure sentiment.
• Japan and the US conducted a joint yen intervention as the BOJ signalled a potential September rate hike.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a broadly positive performance, supported by continued strength in US technology stocks and resilient investor sentiment. The S&P 500 advanced 0.70% to 7,490.00, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed with a 1.00% gain to 25,374.00, reflecting sustained buying interest in growth-oriented sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also rose 0.53% to 52,485.00. In Europe, the FTSE 100 eased 0.27% to 10,868.00, while Canada's S&P/TSX Composite declined 0.79% to 35,226.00 amid weaker commodity-linked sentiment. New Zealand's NZX 50 slipped 0.46% to 13,699.00. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei surged 4.03% to 64,362.00, leading regional gains on strong risk appetite and supportive policy expectations. India's benchmark index also edged 0.21% higher to 78,095.00, reflecting continued resilience in domestic market sentiment.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets reflected varied performance as investors assessed geopolitical developments, inflation expectations, and global economic conditions. WTI crude oil rose 1.29% to US$84.67/bbl, supported by ongoing supply concerns and developments in the Middle East. In contrast, precious and industrial metals weakened, with Gold falling 1.47% to US$4,042.97/oz, Silver declining 2.09% to US$57.78/oz, Copper easing 0.13% to US$6.44/lb, and Uranium retreating 2.07% to US$5,183.97, reflecting cautious sentiment toward industrial demand and profit-taking in commodities. Meanwhile, Bitcoin advanced 1.36% to US$63,620.00, extending recent gains as improving investor confidence supported demand for digital assets. Overall, commodity and cryptocurrency markets remained driven by evolving macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical risks, and changing investor risk appetite across global financial markets.Bond Yields

Global sovereign bond markets reflected evolving expectations around inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth. Australia's 10-year government bond yield declined 0.060 bps to 4.940%, indicating improved demand for fixed-income assets. Japan's 10-year bond yield eased marginally by 0.006 bps to 2.796%, despite continued expectations of gradual policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.048 bps to 4.697%, suggesting some moderation in medium-term rate expectations. However, the 30-year US Treasury yield rose 0.068 bps to 5.275%, reflecting persistent concerns around long-term inflation, fiscal borrowing, and higher term premiums. Overall, bond market movements indicate investors remain focused on central bank policy trajectories, inflation trends, and macroeconomic developments shaping global interest rate expectations.Key Drivers

• US markets closed higher, ending near session highs despite early volatility.
• Market breadth weakened, with seven S&P 500 sectors finishing lower.
• US Treasury yields rose, with the 30-year at 5.26% (third straight multi-year high).
• Nasdaq led weekly gains, rising 1.59%, followed by the S&P 500 (+1.05%).
• Amazon surged 15.3% after stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings and AWS growth.
• Apple fell 7.3% as weaker forward guidance overshadowed record quarterly revenue.
• Microsoft shares surged after its earnings, adding approximately US$450 billion to its market capitalisation on Thursday—the largest single-day gain in the company's history.
• AI sentiment strengthened as Big Tech projected US$720–745 billion in 2026 capex.
• Chevron delivered record quarterly profit, supported by strong downstream earnings.
• Trump paused planned Iran strikes, boosting hopes of easing geopolitical tensions.
• OPEC+ approved a September output increase of approximately 188,000 bpd.
• The Bank of Japan kept rates at 1.0%, while maintaining a tightening bias.
• US consumer sentiment rose to a five-month high in July.
• China's manufacturing and services PMIs fell below 50, signalling renewed economic contraction.

ASX Company News

• Vista Group International Limited (ASX: VGL) delivered first-half 2026 revenue of NZ$86.3 million, up 12%, supported by a 14% increase in recurring revenue to NZ$80.1 million and a 38% rise in SaaS revenue to NZ$43.5 million. EBITDA increased 24% to NZ$12.4 million, while ARR reached NZ$170.1 million. Vista raised FY26 revenue guidance to NZ$179–184 million and maintained its EBITDA margin target of 18–20%.
• SKS Technologies Group Limited (ASX: SKS) expects unaudited FY26 revenue of AU$347.9 million and profit before tax of AU$39.3 million, exceeding its previous AU$34.0 million guidance by 15.6%. The expected PBT margin improved to 11.3%, compared with the earlier guidance of 10.0%, supported by stronger revenue and continued operational discipline.
• Transurban Group (ASX: TCL) finalised key terms with the NSW Government for proposed toll reforms, including price reductions across selected Sydney roads, two-way tolling on the Eastern Distributor and progression of the M7–M2 widening project. June group traffic increased 3.8%, or 2.4% excluding the West Gate Tunnel, with Sydney, Melbourne and North American traffic rising 2.5%, 6.1% and 6.9%, respectively. The reforms are not expected to negatively affect near-term distributions.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Premier Investments (PMV)- AU$0.450

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:00 am (AEST): Australia TD-MI Inflation Gauge – A key indicator of inflation trends that could influence expectations for future RBA policy decisions.
• 11:45 am (AEST): China Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Investors will monitor manufacturing activity for signs of improving or weakening industrial demand and economic momentum.
• 12:00 am (AEST): US ISM Manufacturing PMI – A closely watched gauge of US factory activity that could shape expectations for economic growth, Federal Reserve policy, and broader market sentiment.
• Watch long-term US Treasury yields, with the 30-year yield holding at 5.26%, as elevated borrowing costs could influence market sentiment.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a weaker open, despite easing Iran-related tensions.
• US markets closed higher, led by a strong rally in Amazon shares.
• Japan's Nikkei surged 4.03%, outperforming major global indices.
• US 30-year Treasury yield remained elevated at 5.26%.
• AI optimism strengthened following robust Big Tech earnings and capex guidance.
• Trump paused planned Iran strikes, while OPEC+ approved a September output increase.
• China's PMIs slipped into contraction, signalling weaker economic activity.
• The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate at 1.0%, with a tightening bias.
• Investor sentiment remains focused on inflation, interest rates and upcoming economic data releases.

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