Headline

• ASX 200 futures slipped 4 points, or 0.04%, pointing to a largely flat start for the Australian market.
• Wall Street lost momentum, as the Dow ended its five-session winning run and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also edged lower.
• Software stocks came under heavy pressure, with Datadog and HubSpot suffering particularly steep declines despite solid earnings-related updates.
• Oil prices rebounded sharply, with Brent crude climbing 4.6% to about US$83 per barrel amid escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.
• Alphabet is looking to raise US$25 billion through the bond market, as large technology companies continue to fund substantial AI-related spending.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded mostly lower, reflecting cautious investor sentiment across major regions. The S&P 500 declined 0.18% to 7,710.00, while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.06% to 26,348.00. The Dow Jones underperformed, falling 0.85% to 53,885.00. European equities also remained subdued, with the FTSE 100 declining 0.19% to 10,868.00. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite edged down 0.03% to 36,136.00, indicating relatively stable trading. In Oceania, New Zealand’s NZX 50 declined 0.28% to 13,958.00. Across Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.93% to 65,683.00, marking the steepest decline among the listed benchmarks. Indian equities ended on a positive note, with the benchmark gaining 0.48% to settle at 78,955.00. Overall, seven of the eight listed markets finished lower, with weakness particularly evident in US blue-chip stocks and Japanese equities, while Indian equities bucked the broader global trend.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets traded with a mixed bias, led by strength in energy. WTI crude rose 2.75% to US$77.29 per barrel, recording the strongest gain among the listed commodities. Precious metals remained subdued, with gold easing 0.18% to US$4,239.57 per ounce, while silver declined 0.73% to US$61.83 per ounce. Industrial metals were relatively stable, as copper slipped 0.05% to US$6.70 per pound, indicating limited price movement during the session. Meanwhile, uranium gained 0.34% to 5,683.60, standing alongside crude oil as one of the positive performers. Overall, commodity price action was divergent, with energy and uranium outperforming, while precious and industrial metals faced modest selling pressure. The cryptocurrency market remained under pressure, with Bitcoin declining 0.29% to US$64,383.00, reflecting softer momentum across digital assets.Bond Yields

Global sovereign bond yields remained elevated, with Australia recording the most notable gain. The Australian 10-year government bond yield gained 4.8 basis points to 4.971%, indicating upward pressure on longer-term domestic rates. Japan’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield stood at 2.769%, reflecting elevated long-term borrowing costs. In the US Treasury market, yield movements were relatively modest, with the 10-year Treasury yield gaining 0.2 basis points to 4.675%, while the 30-year Treasury yield gained 0.8 basis points to 5.220%. Overall, Australia registered the strongest upward movement among the listed bond markets, while changes across US Treasury yields were comparatively limited.Key Drivers

• US Equities: US benchmarks closed lower, with the Dow leading the decline while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq held up relatively better.
• Market Volatility: The VIX declined 4% to 15.1, despite weakness across US equities.
• Oil Rebound: Brent crude jumped 4.6%, recovering partially after falling around 22% over the previous two weeks.
• Hormuz Developments: Iran and Oman agreed on a proposed 2–4-month shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz, although a full reopening remains unresolved.
• Software Sell-off: Datadog and HubSpot shares fell around 19% each, despite quarterly revenue and EPS beating expectations.
• After-hours Movers: Airbnb gained around 9%, while Cloudflare jumped approximately 17% following their earnings updates.
• AI Rotation: Lower-cost Chinese AI models attracted investor attention toward Chinese internet stocks as an alternative to crowded US AI infrastructure trades.
• Market Leverage: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that market leverage remains elevated, with margin debt at record levels.
• Fed Outlook: Kevin Warsh indicated willingness to tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures intensify.
• US Jobless Claims: Initial claims increased to 199,000, remaining below expectations of approximately 203,000.
• US Private Employment: ADP private payrolls increased by only 44,000 in July, falling short of market expectations.
• Australia Trade: Australia recorded an unexpected AU$1.93 billion trade surplus in June, supported by a sharp increase in export values.

ASX Company News

• James Hardie Industries plc (ASX: JHX) reported Q1 FY27 net sales of US$1.47 billion, up 64%, while net income increased 67% to US$104.3 million. Adjusted EBITDA rose 79% to US$422.1 million, with the adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 230 basis points to 28.6%. The company also raised its FY27 outlook, targeting total net sales of US$5.56 billion to US$5.72 billion and adjusted EBITDA of US$1.54 billion to US$1.63 billion.
• Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK) reported FY26 group revenue of AU$516.7 million, up 4.3%, while net profit after tax increased 22.1% to AU$75.7 million. EBITDA rose 13.6% to AU$180.7 million, and EBIT increased 18.0% to AU$124.7 million.
• Tivan Limited (ASX: TVN) appointed ICA Natural Resources to advise on debt funding for the Speewah Fluorite Project in Western Australia. The company is progressing a Definitive Feasibility Study and has binding agreements with Sumitomo Corporation and ETFS Capital Limited for up to AU$100 million in equity funding. Tivan has also advanced debt funding discussions with Export Finance Australia and the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Amcil Limited (ASX: AMH): Dividend of AU$0.03 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 1:00 pm AEST – China Trade Balance: Export and import trends will be closely watched for signals on external demand and the broader outlook for global trade.
• Oil & Middle East Developments: Crude oil volatility and developments around the Strait of Hormuz remain key catalysts for energy stocks and inflation expectations.
• US Interest Rate Outlook: Investors will assess economic data and Federal Reserve commentary for potential shifts in the interest-rate trajectory.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures signal a broadly flat start, easing 4 points (-0.04%) following a lower close on Wall Street.
• Wall Street closed lower, with the Dow down 0.85%, the S&P 500 off 0.18%, and the Nasdaq slipping 0.06%.
• Oil prices rebounded strongly, with Brent crude gaining 4.6% to around US$83 per barrel and WTI crude rising 2.75% to US$77.29 per barrel.
• Precious metals softened, with gold down 0.18% to US$4,239.57/oz and silver falling 0.73% to US$61.83/oz.
• Australia recorded an unexpected AU$1.93 billion trade surplus in June, supported by a strong increase in export values.
• Software stocks faced heavy selling, with Datadog and HubSpot declining around 19% each despite better-than-expected quarterly earnings.
• Middle east developments remain a key market catalyst, with uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz continuing to influence oil prices and energy-sector sentiment.
• Investors may remain cautious, as ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could sustain volatility across oil prices and global equity markets.

Disclaimer for Kapitales ResearchThe materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise.  

Customer Notice:

Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.Disclosure: The information mentioned above has been sourced from the company reports and a third-party database, i.e. Koyfin. Investors are advised to use strict stop-loss to protect their investments in case of any unfavorable/uncertain market events.

Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com.au