Source: Kapitales Research

Headline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a stronger opening after Wall Street rebounded sharply overnight, supported by easing bond yields, falling crude oil prices, and optimism surrounding ongoing US-Iran negotiations. 
• Major US benchmarks advanced, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording strong gains as investor sentiment improved following Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and upbeat forward guidance. 
• Trump said US-Iran negotiations are in the “final stages,” pushing Brent crude prices nearly 5% lower and easing pressure on global bond markets, with US 30-year yields retreating from recent highs.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded mostly higher overnight as easing bond yields, declining crude oil prices, and optimism surrounding progress in US-Iran negotiations improved broader investor sentiment. US markets delivered strong gains, with the S&P 500 snapping its recent losing streak while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed following renewed strength across technology and artificial intelligence-linked stocks. The Dow Jones Index also advanced firmly, reclaiming the 50,000 level amid broad-based buying across industrial and financial sectors.

Investor confidence improved after softer Treasury yields reduced immediate pressure on growth-oriented valuations. Nvidia remained a key market focus after reporting stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and issuing upbeat forward guidance, which supported sentiment across semiconductor and technology sectors.

The United Kingdom also closed higher overnight, supported by gains across industrial, financial, and commodity-linked sectors as investors responded positively to easing geopolitical concerns and improving global risk appetite. Meanwhile, Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index advanced during the session, driven by strength across materials and financial stocks amid improving broader market sentiment.

Asian markets delivered mixed performance during the session, with Japan’s Nikkei Index declining amid caution surrounding export-oriented sectors. Indian equities, however, remained relatively resilient, supported by selective buying across domestic-facing sectors and stable investor sentiment. New Zealand equities underperformed during the session, with the NZX 50 declining as weakness across consumer-linked sectors weighed on broader market sentiment.

Overall, global markets witnessed improved sentiment overnight as easing bond yields, lower crude oil prices, and optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations supported broader risk appetite.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity and cryptocurrency markets traded broadly positive overnight as investors assessed developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations, easing bond yields, and movements across global financial markets. Crude oil prices, however, declined sharply, with WTI crude falling below the US$100 per barrel mark after optimism surrounding potential diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran reduced concerns regarding near-term supply disruptions across global energy markets.

Gold prices advanced during the session as investors maintained selective exposure toward safe-haven assets despite improving broader market sentiment. Silver also recorded gains, supported by stronger investor interest across precious metals and improving industrial demand expectations.

Copper prices moved higher amid expectations of stable infrastructure-related demand and improving sentiment across industrial metals. Uranium prices also edged higher as investors continued monitoring long-term nuclear energy demand trends and tightening supply conditions within the sector. Meanwhile, Bitcoin traded positively overnight as improving investor confidence and renewed appetite for risk-oriented assets supported gains across cryptocurrency markets.

Overall, commodity and cryptocurrency markets remained influenced by geopolitical developments, inflation expectations, energy supply trends, and broader global market sentiment.

Bond Yields

Global bond yields remained elevated as investors continued evaluating inflation trends, fiscal challenges, and the future path of central bank policies. US Treasury yields moved slightly higher, with both 10-year and 30-year yields hovering near multi-year highs amid expectations that interest rates may stay elevated for longer. In contrast, Australian government bond yields eased as markets assessed global economic conditions and potential Reserve Bank of Australia policy moves. Japan’s 10-year bond yield also stayed elevated as investors monitored the Bank of Japan’s gradual monetary policy normalisation, keeping overall market sentiment cautious.

Key Drivers

• Optimism surrounding ongoing US-Iran negotiations improved global market sentiment and triggered a sharp decline in crude oil prices amid easing concerns regarding potential supply disruptions. 
• US Treasury yields moderated from recent multi-year highs, providing temporary relief for growth-oriented sectors, particularly technology and semiconductor stocks. 
• Nvidia’s stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings, robust AI-driven revenue growth, and upgraded forward guidance significantly boosted sentiment across global technology markets. 
• The sharp pullback in oil prices improved inflation expectations and reduced immediate concerns surrounding additional pressure on global central bank policy tightening. 
• Elevated global bond yields continued remaining a key medium-term risk factor for equity markets despite the overnight easing in fixed-income markets. 
• Strong performance across commodity-linked sectors, including copper, silver, and strategic metals, highlighted improving sentiment toward industrial and infrastructure-driven demand themes. 

1. NVDA Result Highlights
2. NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) delivered another strong quarterly performance, supported by accelerating global demand for AI infrastructure and data center solutions. The company reported first-quarter revenue of approximately US$81.6 billion, reflecting robust year-over-year growth, while data center revenue surged sharply on the back of continued adoption of its Blackwell AI architecture. Management also issued an upbeat outlook for the upcoming quarter, signaling sustained momentum in enterprise and hyperscaler AI spending. NVIDIA also announced a significant US$80 billion share buyback program, highlighting confidence in long-term growth prospects and cash flow generation. Despite ongoing concerns around export restrictions and rising competition in AI chips, the results reinforced NVIDIA’s dominant position in the global AI ecosystem.
3. ASX Company News

• Electro Optic Systems Holdings Limited (ASX: EOS) completed the acquisition of MARSS, strengthening EOS’ defence and counter-drone capabilities through the integration of the NiDAR Counter-Drone Command and Control platform, which is currently supporting critical infrastructure protection operations in the Middle East.
• Arafura Rare Earths Limited (ASX: ARU) announced a Final Investment Decision (FID) for the Nolans Rare Earths Project in the Northern Territory, positioning it as Australia’s first fully integrated ore-to-oxide rare earths operation. Construction is targeted to commence from September 2026, supported by multiple global offtake agreements and sovereign-backed financing commitments.
• Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) announced that Managing Director Stuart Tonkin intends to step down during the first quarter of FY27 after a 13-year tenure. The company has initiated a formal succession process while Tonkin remains in the role through completion of the current strategic plan and KCGM Fimiston Mill Expansion commissioning.
• Midas Minerals Ltd (ASX: MM1) Midas Minerals reported further high-grade copper and silver drill intercepts from the T-13 Deposit at its Otavi Copper Project in Namibia, highlighting strong resource growth potential and improving geological continuity across the project. Significant results included 46.2m at 4.01% CuEq from 193.2m and 41.9m at 3.70% CuEq from 239.4m, alongside higher-grade zones exceeding 7% CuEq. The company also confirmed encouraging results from the T-13 West Zone, supporting the possibility of extending mineralisation beyond the main deposit area. Midas currently operates five drilling rigs across the Otavi Project, with an updated Mineral Resource Estimate for T-13 expected later in 2026. 

1. Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend

•  Orica Limited (ASX: ORI) – Dividend distribution of AU$0.285 per share.

1. Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Australia’s unemployment rate and PMI data will remain closely monitored for additional insight into domestic economic momentum and labour market conditions.
• Investors will focus on manufacturing and services PMI releases across Europe and the United Kingdom to assess broader global economic activity trends.
• US President Donald Trump stated that negotiations between the United States and Iran are in the “final stages,” improving hopes for a potential diplomatic resolution and easing immediate concerns surrounding Middle East tensions. 
• Despite progress in negotiations, Trump warned of potential further military action if Iran fails to agree to a deal, highlighting that geopolitical risks across the region remain elevated.
• Copper, silver, uranium, and strategic metals rallied overnight, placing ASX mining and battery material stocks in focus.

1. Summary

• ASX 200 futures suggest a positive opening following broad-based gains across Wall Street overnight.
• Easing bond yields and lower oil prices have improved short-term sentiment toward global equity markets.
• Technology and semiconductor sectors may remain supported after Nvidia delivered stronger-than-expected earnings and optimistic forward guidance.
• Weakness in crude oil prices could pressure energy-related stocks in the near term despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
• Industrial metals and mining-related sectors may benefit from improving commodity sentiment and stronger copper prices.
• Elevated global bond yields continue representing a key medium-term risk for equity valuations and broader financial market stability.
• Investors are expected to remain highly sensitive to inflation trends, central bank commentary, and geopolitical developments impacting global markets.

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