Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive start, rising 18 points (+0.20%).
• Nasdaq hits a second straight record, supported by strength in technology stocks.
• S&P 500 finishes broadly flat, while the Dow retreats.
• Chipmakers extend gains to a sixth session, helping offset weakness in bank shares.
• Brent crude falls below US$100, reaching a two-week low.
• Iran indicated the Strait of Hormuz could reopen within a week if US pressure is reduced.
• Saudi Arabia restarts its East-West pipeline, supporting a recovery in Yanbu exports.
• US-Iran officials hold three-hour UN-side talks, raising hopes of diplomatic progress.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance. Wall Street was led by the Nasdaq Composite, which reached another record close as semiconductor and technology stocks extended their rally. The S&P 500 finished broadly unchanged, indicating that gains remained concentrated, while the Dow Jones declined as major financial stocks came under selling pressure.

European sentiment was softer, with the FTSE 100 ending lower as investors remained selective amid changing interest-rate and geopolitical expectations. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite advanced, reflecting comparatively stronger momentum in the Canadian market. New Zealand’s NZX 50 finished higher, reflecting positive momentum in the Oceania market, while Indian equities closed lower amid cautious investor sentiment. Japan’s equity market remained closed, leaving the Nikkei without a fresh trading session.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets traded mostly higher, led by gains in silver, copper, uranium and gold, while crude oil declined sharply. Gold edged higher, supported by continued demand for defensive assets, while silver and copper posted stronger gains, signalling firmer momentum across precious and industrial metals. Uranium also advanced, extending positive sentiment across the energy-linked commodity complex. In contrast, WTI crude fell sharply as easing concerns around Middle East supply disruptions pressured oil prices and reduced the geopolitical risk premium. The decline in crude could provide some relief to inflation expectations if sustained.

Bitcoin traded slightly lower, showing a relatively muted move compared with the broader commodity complex. Overall, precious and industrial metals remained firm, while oil was the clear underperformer as supply-risk concerns eased.

Bond Yields

Government bond yields eased across Australia and the United States, reflecting a modest improvement in demand for longer-dated sovereign debt. Australia’s 10-year yield moved lower, while US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields also declined. Japan’s 10-year yield was unchanged.

Despite the latest easing, long-term yields remain elevated by recent standards. This continues to keep financial conditions relatively tight and maintains pressure on interest-rate-sensitive equity sectors, particularly real estate, infrastructure and highly leveraged companies. Lower yields may provide some near-term valuation support, but the broader outlook will remain sensitive to inflation trends, central-bank guidance and shifts in global risk sentiment.

Key Drivers

• US equities finished mixed, with technology strength offset by weakness in financials and energy.
• The Nasdaq extended its record run as semiconductor shares advanced for a sixth straight session.
• S&P 500 financial stocks fell sharply, with wealth managers and banks under pressure.
• Brent crude fell to its lowest level since early September, trading near US$98 a barrel.
• Oil weakened on hopes of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz, although Iranian officials gave conflicting signals.
• US Treasury yields were broadly steady, with the 10-year yield holding near 4.96%.
• Saudi Arabia began restarting the East-West oil pipeline, supporting prospects for higher exports through Yanbu.
• Saudi Aramco increased Gulf loadings, with several supertankers carrying additional crude volumes.
• US-Iran diplomacy remained in focus as officials held talks on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
• President Trump signalled continued interest in reaching an agreement with Iran, while tensions remained elevated.
• Meta remained in focus after Muse’s strong App Store performance, reinforcing investor enthusiasm around its AI strategy.
• AutoZone shares advanced after quarterly earnings beat expectations, although revenue came in below forecasts.
• SoftBank attracted strong preliminary demand for a major high-yield bond offering, highlighting robust appetite for credit.
• Taiwan’s export orders surged to a record in August, supported by strong global demand for technology and AI-related products.

ASX Company News

• Ventia Services Group Limited (ASX: VNT) secured an extension with the Government of Western Australia for its Court Security and Custodial Services contract. The extension will commence in March 2027 and run through June 2028, with expected revenue of approximately AU$110 million over the period. Ventia will continue providing court security, custody, transport, medical movement and related support services across Western Australia.
• Nufarm Limited (ASX: NUF) provided an FY26 trading update, expecting underlying EBITDA of AU$370 million to AU$380 million, representing around 25% growth at the midpoint compared with FY25. Leverage is expected to decline to approximately 2.0 times from 2.7 times a year earlier, supported by improved earnings, positive free cash flow and disciplined working capital management. The company also remains on track to deliver AU$50 million in run-rate cost savings by the end of FY27.
• Capricorn Metals Ltd (ASX: CMM) completed construction of the Karlawinda Expansion Project on schedule and commenced continuous ore processing through the new crushing, milling and CIL circuits. The expanded operation has achieved its targeted steady-state throughput of 6.5 million tonnes per annum and is expected to produce around 150,000 ounces of gold annually, supported by a mine life exceeding 10 years based on existing reserves.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Genesis Energy Limited (ASX: GNE) – AU$0.063
• IPD Group Limited (ASX: IPG) – AU$0.079
• St Barbara Limited (ASX: SBM) – AU$0.050

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 9:00 am AEST – Australia S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI: The latest PMI readings will provide an early indication of business activity across Australia’s manufacturing and services sectors. Markets will watch for signals on demand, employment, input costs and broader economic momentum.
• 6:00 pm AEST – UK S&P Manufacturing and Services PMI: The data will offer fresh insight into UK private-sector activity and business conditions. Investors will focus on whether economic momentum is strengthening or weakening, alongside potential implications for inflation and the Bank of England’s interest-rate outlook.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive start as the Nasdaq records a second straight record close, while oil prices fall on hopes of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
• Nasdaq reached a second straight record, supported by continued technology strength.
• S&P 500 finished broadly flat, while the Dow closed lower.
• Semiconductor shares advanced for a sixth consecutive session, extending the tech-led rally.
• Financial stocks weakened sharply, with banks and wealth managers under pressure.
• Brent crude fell below US$100, reaching its lowest level in around two weeks.
• Oil eased on hopes the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, although Iranian signals remained mixed.
• Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline, improving prospects for Yanbu exports.
• US-Iran talks remained a key geopolitical focus after discussions on the UN sidelines.
• Australian and US long-term bond yields eased, though overall yield levels remain elevated.
• Gold, silver and copper traded higher, while Bitcoin slipped modestly.

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