Markets Today (30 September 2026) at Open: Kapitales Morning Highlights from Wall Street to ASX

Headline

• ASX 200 futures point towards a flat opening (-5 pts) as global markets remain cautious.
• S&P 500 falls for a second session amid rising bond yields and investor caution.
• US 30-year Treasury yield hits 5.61%, its highest level since 2002.
• US consumer confidence drops to a decade-low, reflecting weaker views on jobs and economic conditions.
• Fed officials keep rate hike expectations open as inflation risks remain elevated.
• Oil prices ease as supply concerns soften, with Saudi Arabia restoring Red Sea pipeline flows and reserve releases supporting sentiment.
• Long-term bond sell-off deepens, with the US 30-year yield rising for a sixth consecutive session.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets remained under pressure as investors monitored elevated bond yields, economic uncertainty and shifting expectations around central bank policy. US markets ended lower, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones all declining as the ongoing rise in long-term Treasury yields weighed on sentiment. The sell-off in longer-duration bonds continued to influence risk appetite, particularly across growth-oriented sectors.

European markets also traded negatively, with the FTSE 100 declining amid broader global caution. The Canadian market remained relatively stable but ended slightly lower, reflecting a cautious approach from investors. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei 225 weakened as investors assessed domestic economic conditions and global interest rate trends. India’s benchmark index also moved lower following broader risk-off sentiment. New Zealand’s NZX 50 recorded a notable decline, remaining under pressure from regional market weakness and global macroeconomic concerns. Overall, investors continue to focus on interest rate outlooks, inflation trends, bond market movements and corporate earnings signals for further market direction.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets remained broadly positive as precious metals and industrial commodities gained, while oil prices declined amid easing supply concerns. Gold prices advanced as demand for safe-haven assets strengthened amid ongoing uncertainty in financial markets. Silver also moved higher, supported by continued interest in precious metals and industrial demand expectations.

Oil prices declined sharply, with WTI crude falling as improving supply conditions and easing concerns around disruptions reduced upward pressure on energy markets. Copper recorded a modest gain, supported by steady demand expectations linked to global infrastructure investment and industrial activity. Uranium prices remained slightly positive as long-term demand prospects from nuclear energy expansion continued to support market sentiment.

In digital assets, Bitcoin traded broadly flat with limited movement as investors remained cautious amid wider risk sentiment across global markets.

Bond Yields

Global bond markets showed a slight easing in yields as investors assessed economic data, inflation expectations and central bank policy outlooks. The Australian 10-year bond yield remained elevated but edged lower, reflecting cautious positioning amid ongoing rate uncertainty. Japan’s 10-year bond yield stayed around elevated levels as markets continued to monitor the Bank of Japan’s policy direction.

In the United States, Treasury yields declined marginally, with both the 10-year and 30-year yields moving lower. However, long-term yields remained at historically high levels, highlighting continued investor concerns around inflation risks, government borrowing levels and the future path of monetary policy.

Overall, bond markets remained driven by shifting expectations around inflation, interest rates and central bank policy paths. Although yields eased slightly across major markets, elevated long-term borrowing costs continued to shape investor sentiment, influencing equity valuations, currency movements and broader risk appetite.

Key Drivers

• US stocks declined for a second session as bond market pressure weighed on sentiment.
• US 30-year Treasury yield climbed for a sixth consecutive session, briefly surpassing 5.61% intraday, its highest level since 2002, as inflation concerns and heavy corporate debt issuance pressured long-term bonds.
• Brent crude settled below US$103/bbl as Saudi pipeline recovery eased supply concerns.
• US Dollar Index rose 0.2% to 101.3, extending gains since mid-September.
• US released up to 40 million barrels from SPR to support fuel supply.
• US Treasuries faced worst September since 2023, with markets pricing further Fed tightening.
• OpenAI targets US$30 billion funding at around US$1.4 trillion valuation.
• Paramount Skydance launched US$52 billion debt package to fund Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition.
• Trump announced AI agreement with technology leaders after White House discussions.
• Iran officials expressed doubts over near-term Hormuz deal before US midterm elections.
• Saudi Yanbu and Muajjiz terminals showed operational recovery, loading 12.5 million barrels.
• US imposed 100% tariffs on certain patented drugs and related ingredients.
• US import ban on selected Canadian products took effect, escalating trade tensions.
• Fed officials indicated potential for further rate hikes as inflation remains a concern.
• RBA raised cash rate by 25 bps to 4.6%, highest since late 2011.
• US consumer confidence fell to 81.9, lowest since 2014, while job openings declined to 7.1 million.

ASX Company News

• SkyCity Entertainment Group Limited (ASX: SKC) announced a strategic review process to explore opportunities for enhancing shareholder value. The company is targeting aggregate proceeds of between NZ$275 million and NZ$300 million from its asset monetisation programme by the end of 2026, including NZ$74.5 million realised from commercial property sales.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: TLX) received FDA Fast Track designation for its BiPASS® program, which is evaluating 68Ga-PSMA-PET imaging alongside MRI for pre-biopsy prostate cancer detection. The designation enables closer engagement with the FDA and may support an expedited review of the planned NDA submission.
• Metal Powder Works Limited (ASX: MPW) secured a two-year long-term agreement with Embassy Powdered Metals Inc to supply pure copper powder for copper infiltration applications. The agreement is valued at approximately US$300,000 per annum, representing contracted revenue of about US$600,000 over the two-year term.
• Liontown Limited (ASX: LTR) approved the Kathleen Valley Expansion Final Investment Decision, targeting a five-year average spodumene concentrate production of approximately 780,000 dmt annually from FY30. The expansion requires approved capital expenditure of AU$389 million and is expected to increase processing capacity from 2.8 Mtpa to 4.2 Mtpa.
• Black Cat Syndicate Limited (ASX: BC8) provided FY27 production guidance of 80–90koz and AISC guidance of AU$3,500–AU$3,900/oz. The company expects production growth from Paulsens, Kal East, Fingals and Majestic, supported by ongoing operational ramp-up and expansion initiatives.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK) – AU$0.39. 
• Sims Limited (ASX: SGM) – AU$0.20. 
• Cedar Woods Properties Limited (ASX: CWP) – AU$0.25. 
• GenusPlus Group Limited (ASX: GNP) – AU$0.036.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 11:30 am AEST: Australia CPI data – Investors will monitor inflation trends for signals on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s future interest rate path.
• 11:30 am AEST: China Manufacturing PMI – The data will provide insight into China’s factory activity, industrial demand and broader economic momentum.
• 10:30 pm AEST: US Core PCE Price Index – Markets will focus on the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge for clues on future monetary policy decisions.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a 0.05% decline (-5 pts) as US benchmarks slip and long-term US Treasury yields reach a 24-year high.
• US equities ended lower for a second session as rising bond yields pressured investor sentiment.
• US consumer confidence dropped to 81.9, marking the lowest level since 2014 amid weaker economic sentiment.
• Fed officials kept further rate hike expectations open as inflation risks remain elevated.
• US Treasury sell-off continued, with long-term yields remaining under pressure from inflation and debt concerns.
• Brent crude prices fell below US$103/bbl as Saudi supply recovery eased market concerns.
• US Dollar Index gained 0.2% to 101.3, extending its recent upward trend.
• Gold advanced 1.57% to US$4,179.58/oz as investors sought safe-haven assets.
• WTI crude declined 3.48% to US$89.38/bbl amid improving supply conditions.
• RBA increased the cash rate by 25 bps to 4.6%, the highest level since late 2011.

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