Nick Scali Rallies on ASX as Investors Weigh the Next Earnings Test

Source: Kapitales Research

Highlights

Colette Garnsey’s director disclosure recorded nil shareholdings and no relevant interests in contracts.
First-half underlying group profit guidance ranges from AU$28 million to AU$32 million.
UK order growth provides support as ANZ sales weaken and cyber-related costs emerge.

Director Disclosure Opens the Latest Update

Nick Scali Limited (ASX: NCK) traded at a current market price of AU$12.645, surging 5.1%, following its director’s interest notice released on 22 October 2026. The filing detailed Colette Garnsey OAM’s initial interests after she joined the board on 19 October 2026.

Garnsey disclosed nil securities held directly and nil relevant interests through other registered holders. The contracts section was marked not applicable. This was an initial disclosure accompanying her appointment, rather than notification of a share transaction.

Profit Forecast Sets the Benchmark

Nick Scali’s 21 October 2026 trading update placed expected underlying group net profit after tax between AU$28 million and AU$32 million for the half-year ending 31 December 2026. That estimate excludes approximately AU$980,000 in consultant and legal expenses arising from August’s cyber incident.

ANZ Trading Faces Softer Demand

Australia and New Zealand recorded a 15% decline in first-quarter written sales orders compared to the corresponding period. This followed order growth of 11% in the first quarter of FY26. Customer traffic across stores decreased approximately 10%.

First-half ANZ revenue is forecast to fall between 11% and 14%. Meanwhile, the cyber incident interrupted access to enterprise resource planning systems for approximately three weeks. Stores stayed open, handling sales orders manually during the outage.

UK Orders Strengthen as Stores Expand

First-quarter UK written sales orders rose 29%, including like-for-like growth of 14%. Refurbishment-related closures during the corresponding period partly explain the gap between total and comparable growth.

Two ANZ stores commenced trading in July. Management expects another two ANZ openings and one UK opening in late December.

Outlook

Nick Scali reported a strong balance sheet and remains focused on protecting gross margins, managing expenditure and improving UK performance.

The earnings forecast now provides a benchmark for assessing progress. UK growth offers support, although weaker ANZ demand leaves the group’s recovery dependent on execution over the coming months.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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