Market Alert : Energy Price Pressures Intensify Will Inflation Concerns Trigger Further Global Market Weakness?

Mayank Bansal
Mayank Bansal, CFA
Mayank Bansal is a CFA Charterholder and heads the Equity Research team at Kapitales Research, with over 5 years of experience analysing global equity markets. He leads fundamental, data-driven research combining rigorous financial analysis with macro trends.

Origin Energy Reports 32% Jump in APLNG Revenue to AU$2.6 Billion in September 2026 Quarter

Origin Energy Reports 32% Jump in APLNG Revenue to AU$2.6 Billion in September 2026 Quarter Source: Kapitales Research

Highlights:

  • APLNG revenue rose 32% from the previous quarter to AU$2,601 million, driven by higher realised oil prices.

  • The 300 MW / 650 MWh Mortlake Battery began commercial operations, lifting Origin’s operational grid-scale battery capacity to 1.3 GW / 4.1 GWh.

  • Octopus Energy added 308,000 retail customer accounts, and a US$1 billion Kraken equity raise was completed in July 2026.

Origin Energy Limited (ASX: ORG) released its quarterly report for the period to 30 September 2026 on 30 October 2026. It covers the Integrated Gas, Energy Markets, Octopus Energy and Kraken Technologies segments. Shares were last quoted at AU$12.370, up AU$0.240 or 1.978%.

Oil-Linked Pricing Lifts Gas Revenue

Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) produced 162.8 PJ, slightly below the 164.6 PJ of the June quarter, while sales edged up 1% to 167.4 PJ. Natural field decline and unplanned downtime from a power outage at Condabri weighed on output, partly offset by an extra day in the quarter and new wells.

Revenue was the standout. The realised LNG price climbed to US$13.27/mmbtu from US$9.93, and the realised oil price reached US$98 per barrel, up from US$68. The average domestic gas price was AU$5.67/GJ. APLNG capital expenditure eased to AU$236 million from AU$278 million as exploration spending fell. Origin also expects roughly AU$70 million in post-tax cash from a gas banking transaction executed in September.

Data Centres Support Electricity Volumes

Electricity sales volumes reached 9.5 TWh, 3% above the same quarter a year earlier, with business demand from data centres a key driver. Gas sales fell 7% year-on-year to 48.1 PJ, as milder weather and growth in renewables and batteries reduced gas-fired generation. The average NEM spot electricity price was AU$65/MWh, down from AU$85/MWh a year earlier, although the report noted prices rallied in October.

Origin’s battery program continues to advance. With Mortlake operating, Eraring Battery 2 is the final piece of the 1.8 GW / 6.4 GWh program and is on track to start operating in the March quarter of 2027.

Octopus and Kraken Update

Octopus Energy’s retail arm added 308,000 accounts, made up of 257,000 in the UK and 51,000 elsewhere. The company deliberately slowed non-UK growth, mainly because of higher wholesale prices and partly to concentrate on direct channels.

Origin invested US$140 million (AU$210 million) in Kraken Technologies during the quarter, taking total investments to AU$210 million and consolidated capital expenditure to AU$152 million. Origin’s overall economic interest in Kraken remains 22.7%, comprising 19.6% held directly and 3.1% indirectly through Octopus. Both businesses will be reported as separate segments from HY27.

Management Commentary

Chief Executive Officer Frank Calabria said Energy Markets performed well, with customer accounts and electricity volumes growing. He added that Origin’s gas generation assets are well placed to support the market over the summer peak, with higher than average temperatures expected. He also noted that well development activity is starting to ramp up to support future gas supply.

Note: All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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