Source: Kapitales Research

Highlights:

• Core Lithium shares fell as investors weighed pre-production risks, negative cash flows, and pending funding approvals despite its Finniss project restart plans.
• Ampol gained on progress in its EG Australia acquisition, with an updated remedy proposal boosting confidence ahead of the ACCC decision.
• Santos advanced on strong operational performance, supported by production growth, rising revenues, and key project momentum from Barossa and Pikka.

Stock Moves Today: CXO Declines, ALD and STO Gain

Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) declined 8.80% to AU$0.337, while Ampol Limited (ASX: ALD) rose 1.40% to AU$33.260 and Santos Limited (ASX: STO) gained 3.50% to AU$7.695, reflecting mixed investor sentiment across the energy and resources space.

CXO: Pre-Production Risks Weigh

Core Lithium announced a Final Investment Decision to restart the Finniss Lithium Project and secured a funding package of around AU$290 million, with cash reserves of AU$91.6 million at the end of the March quarter.

However, the stock declined as the company remains in a pre-production phase, meaning there are no immediate operating cash flows. This is reflected in negative operating cash flow of AU$6.3 million for the quarter.

Additionally, investors are factoring in execution risks, including project ramp-up timelines, and approval risks, as parts of the funding package remain subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals. These uncertainties, combined with lithium price volatility, pressured the share price.

ALD: Deal Progress Lifts Sentiment

Ampol shares moved higher after the company submitted a final remedy offer to the ACCC for its proposed EG Australia acquisition. The offer includes four additional sites for divestment, increasing the total from 37 to 41 sites, reflecting continued regulatory engagement.

The Phase 2 ACCC determination is expected by 5 June 2026, with a possible extension of up to 15 business days. The transaction is targeted for completion in mid-2026, subject to regulatory approval and other conditions, supporting investor confidence.

STO: Production Growth and Strong Execution

Santos delivered solid first-quarter performance with production of 22.5 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 3% year-on-year, supported by initial cargoes from the Barossa project. Sales revenue rose to approximately US$1.27 billion, while free cash flow from operations stood around US$383 million.

Operationally, Barossa is ramping up production, while the Pikka Phase 1 project is nearing first oil, expected in 2026. These projects are expected to drive a significant uplift in output, with total production guidance of 101–111 million barrels of oil equivalent for 2026.

Additionally, third-party sales volumes doubled to 4.2 million barrels of oil equivalent, reflecting strategic contract optimisation. Overall, the update highlights strong execution and improving production visibility.

Outlook Ahead

Core Lithium’s near-term outlook remains highly execution-driven, with progress on the Finniss restart, funding approvals, and lithium price trends acting as key catalysts. Ampol’s trajectory will largely depend on ACCC clearance and successful completion of the EG Australia acquisition, which could strengthen its retail fuel network and earnings profile. Santos, on the other hand, appears better positioned with steady production growth, strong free cash flow generation, and upcoming project milestones like Barossa and Pikka supporting long-term operational and financial stability.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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