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Our Track Record

Every call we publish, measured against the market

Entry, target and stop for each research call — including the ones that went against us. Returns are price returns and exclude dividends, so our picks and the benchmark are measured on the same basis. Prices are adjusted for splits and consolidations. Each call runs from its published entry date and is compared with the benchmark named beside it — by default the S&P/ASX 200 — over exactly the same period.

Calls tracked
127
112 closed · 15 open
Average return
-1.90%
realised at exit · median -1.24%
Win rate
52.7%
closed calls only
vs ASX 200
-1.94%
market +0.04%
Targets hit
58
54 stopped out

By product

Each product's own record. This is the honest answer to “why subscribe to this one rather than that one”.

Australian Equities

Product CallsClosed Win rateAvg returnMedian Benchmarkvs market Target / Stop
Kapitales Research Breakout Stocks Report 127 112 52.7% -1.90% -1.24% +0.04% AXJO.INDX -1.94% 58 / 54 Calls →

Data as of 2026-10-02.

Open positions are marked to the 1 Oct 2026 close (oldest of 15 open calls); nothing on this page is re-priced intraday.

Strategies and model portfolios vs ASX 200

Our model portfolios, rebased to 100 on the day tracking started and compared with their benchmark over the identical period.

PortfolioTracked sinceSessions PortfolioBenchmarkvs market Annualised
Aussie Tech Titans Premium 2026-08-03 45 +7.00% -3.74% AXJO.INDX +10.74% — Holdings →
Beat the ASX Premium 2026-07-30 47 +3.42% -3.18% AXJO.INDX +6.61% — Holdings →
Dividend Champions Premium 2026-08-03 45 -2.94% -3.74% AXJO.INDX +0.80% — Holdings →
Mid-Cap Movers Premium 2026-08-03 45 -3.14% -3.74% AXJO.INDX +0.60% — Holdings →

Screener strategies are not measured here. A saved screener strategy is a set of conditions; it has no entry dates, no holdings and no snapshot history, so there is no measured return to compare with the market. Rather than publish an estimate, we publish nothing until strategy backtesting is built.

How these numbers are calculated

  • Returns are price returns and exclude dividends, so our picks and the benchmark are measured on the same basis. Prices are adjusted for splits and consolidations. Every call is measured from the entry date published in the report.
  • A closed call is reported at what it actually realised — the fill, not what the stock did afterwards. A call still open is marked to the latest settled close and labelled as such.
  • Where a call's entry and exit are not on the same share basis, no return is published for it. A share consolidation between the two prices makes them incomparable, and a blank is worth more than a number we cannot stand behind. The call itself stays on the list.
  • A target or stop is only recorded when the daily price range actually reached it. Determined by rule from end-of-day data, never estimated and never decided by AI.
  • Stops are booked at the worse of the stop level and the opening price, so a gap through the stop counts as the full loss. Targets are booked at the published target, never at a better price.
  • Win rate counts closed calls only. An open position's return changes daily and would make the figure meaningless.
  • Median is shown next to the average, because one exceptional winner can carry an average.
  • The benchmark is set per product and is named in the table — by default the S&P/ASX 200 — measured over the identical holding period for each call. Both sides are price returns, so the “vs market” column compares like with like and carries no dividend advantage either way.
  • Model portfolios are measured from live daily snapshots, not from a simulated backtest, and are rebased to 100 against their benchmark on the day tracking began. The number of sessions recorded is shown so a short history is obvious.
  • A product only appears once it has been opted in to publishing. The site-wide figures above cover exactly the products listed below them, so the page adds up.
  • No call is removed once published. Losses stay in the record.

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Figures do not account for brokerage, slippage or tax. General information only, not personal financial advice — consider your circumstances and seek licensed advice. Full disclosure