Is the US Chip Tariff Deal a Win-Win or a Tech Battleground? How New Rules Could Reshape AI Exports

Source: Kapitales Research

Highlights:

• The US has imposed a 25% tariff on certain advanced AI chips, allowing companies like Nvidia to export powerful processors to China while the US takes a cut of the sale value.
• Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) can ship its H200 chips to China under the new framework, but only after export licences are approved and tariffs are paid on chips routed through the US.
• The move marks a major shift in US tech policy, balancing national security concerns with commercial interests in the fast-growing artificial intelligence market.

The United States has introduced a 25 per cent tariff on certain imported semiconductors as part of a high-stakes agreement that could allow Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) to resume shipments of its Taiwan-made H200 artificial intelligence chips to China. At the time of writing, the policy — signed by President Donald Trump — is reverberating through global tech markets and stirring debate among policymakers, companies and investors alike.

What’s in the New Tariff Policy?

Under the January 14 executive order, a 25 per cent tariff will be levied on select AI and advanced computing chips imported into the US and then exported to foreign markets, including China. By imposing the levy on chips that move through the United States before final delivery, the government effectively secures a portion of the value from these sales. The move aims to balance national security concerns with commercial interests — especially in AI technology — by allowing companies like Nvidia to tap China’s vast market while restricting unfettered access to sensitive technologies.

Why It Matters to Tech and Trade

Nvidia’s H200 chips are among the most powerful AI processors designed for large-scale machine learning and data-intensive applications. The tariff and related export rules come just after US regulators eased licensing criteria for sending such chips to China, marking a sharp policy turn from previous restrictions. This framework also reflects broader US efforts to encourage domestic semiconductor production and reduce dependence on foreign manufacturing hubs like Taiwan, while still engaging in lucrative overseas markets.

Reactions and Uncertainties

Reactions to the tariff policy have been mixed so far. Supporters argue the deal protects national interests while preserving commercial ties, whereas critics warn it may still boost China’s technological capabilities. Enforcement details — including how export licensing and national security checks will be carried out — remain a key uncertainty in the coming weeks. China’s own response, including reported customs restrictions on importing the H200 chips, adds another layer of complexity that could affect how and when shipments actually reach customers.

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