Markets Today (05 October 2026) at Open: Kapitales Morning Highlights from Wall Street to ASX

Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive open, up 26 points (+0.29%).
• US September payrolls increased by just 29,000, while unemployment rose to 4.2%.
• Weak US jobs data reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
• Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% and touched a record intraday high of 27,353.68.
• Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz remained high after additional tankers were reportedly struck amid the US-Iran conflict.
• G7 nations moved to boost near-term energy supply by releasing 100 million barrels from strategic oil and fuel reserves.
• OPEC+ kept November oil production targets unchanged despite elevated crude prices.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets were broadly positive, with Wall Street leading gains as technology stocks outperformed and investor sentiment improved following softer US labour-market data. The Nasdaq Composite was the strongest major US benchmark, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also finished higher. In Europe, the FTSE 100 advanced modestly, reflecting a relatively constructive tone across developed markets. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite also posted a firm gain, supported by broader risk appetite.

Japan’s Nikkei declined despite a stronger lead from Wall Street. Indian equities remained closed for the Gandhi Jayanti public holiday. In the Pacific region, New Zealand’s NZX 50 finished lower, reflecting weaker local market sentiment.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets were mixed, with precious metals coming under pressure while selected industrial and energy-linked assets showed modest resilience. Gold declined as stronger risk appetite reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets. Silver also weakened, broadly tracking the softer tone across precious metals.

Oil prices moved lower as supply concerns eased following measures aimed at improving market availability, including planned reserve releases and stable production policy from major producers. The decline in crude came despite continuing geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. Copper edged higher, indicating comparatively firmer sentiment toward industrial metals, while uranium also recorded a marginal advance.

Bitcoin strengthened, outperforming several major commodities as appetite for risk-sensitive assets improved. The cryptocurrency’s advance came alongside gains in US technology shares and broader optimism across Wall Street. Overall, the session reflected diverging market forces, with precious metals and crude oil retreating while copper, uranium and Bitcoin registered gains.

Bond Yields

Government bond markets showed mixed movements. Australia’s ten-year yield declined, while Japan’s ten-year yield was broadly steady with a marginal increase. In the US, the ten-year Treasury yield eased, reflecting some support from softer labour-market data and reduced expectations for an immediate Federal Reserve rate increase.

However, the US thirty-year yield moved higher, highlighting continued pressure at the long end of the curve. The divergence between the ten-year and thirty-year yields suggests investors remained cautious about longer-term inflation, fiscal borrowing and supply conditions. Overall, sovereign bond markets remained uneven, with softer near-term monetary policy expectations offset by persistent pressure from inflation, fiscal supply and longer-term rate risk. If oil prices remain elevated, renewed inflation concerns could keep longer-dated yields under upward pressure.

Key Drivers

• US equities finished higher, though major benchmarks closed below session highs after the Nasdaq hit an intraday record.
• Nasdaq gained 0.45% for the week, while the S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Dow dropped 1.3%.
• US bond yields reversed higher late in the session despite the weaker payrolls report.
• The US two-year yield fell sharply after the jobs miss before ending around 4.82%.
• Traders reduced expectations for an October Fed hike following the soft payrolls data.
• Treasury Secretary Bessent said rising yields were consistent with broader global trends.
• JPMorgan’s Feroli still expects a December Fed hike, citing slower wage growth.
• Morgan Stanley restored Nvidia as its top semiconductor pick on strong AI exposure.
• Nvidia touched a record intraday high of US$237.87, lifting its market value to US$5.72 trillion.
• Tesla reported Q3 deliveries of 486,532, down 2% year-on-year but ahead of expectations.
• Nike reported weaker Q1 FY27 revenue and guided to a high-single-digit revenue decline for FY27.
• Broadcom-related banks are preparing to syndicate US$60 billion of AI chip financing.
• Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz would stay closed unless Washington satisfies seven specified conditions.
• At least two tankers were struck near Oman and Iran over the weekend.
• OPEC+ kept November production targets unchanged.
• G7 members agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel over four months.
• US payrolls rose by 29,000 in September, below expectations, while unemployment increased to 4.2%.
• Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September from 3.2%, exceeding forecasts.

ASX Company News

• Ingenia Communities Group (ASX: INA) agreed to provide Warburg Pincus with initial non-exclusive due diligence access regarding its revised indicative proposal to acquire 100% of Ingenia at AU$5.25 cash per stapled security, less any future distributions. The Board has not determined the proposal to be a superior bid and continues to progress its acquisition of Peet Limited under the existing scheme implementation deed. There is no certainty the Warburg Pincus proposal will become binding or proceed.
• CSL Limited (ASX: CSL) entered an exclusive agreement with Alentis Therapeutics to co-develop and co-promote lixudebart, a potential first-in-class treatment for rare kidney and liver diseases. CSL will make an upfront payment of US$355 million, while Alentis may receive up to US$1.2 billion in additional commercial milestones. CSL will fully fund the ongoing and planned clinical programs, with future global profits to be shared 55% to CSL and 45% to Alentis.
• Capricorn Metals Limited (ASX: CMM) produced 31,218 ounces of gold at the Karlawinda Gold Project during the September quarter, in line with its FY27 mine plan. The Karlawinda Expansion Project was completed on schedule and within budget, lifting processing capacity to 6.5 Mtpa and expected production to 150,000 ounces per annum. Capricorn maintained FY27 guidance of 137,000–147,000 ounces at an AISC of AU$1,900–AU$2,100 per ounce, while quarter-end cash and gold stood at AU$535.0 million.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund (ASX: QRI) – AU$0.01.
• Simonds Group Limited (ASX: SIO) – AU$0.005.
• Verbrec Limited (ASX: VBC) – AU$0.002.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 12:00 am AEDT – US ISM Services PMI: Investors will watch the services-sector reading for signals on US economic momentum, inflation pressures and the potential direction of Federal Reserve policy expectations.
• Fed expectations remain fluid: The sizeable US payrolls miss sharply reduced October rate-hike expectations, but the late rebound in Treasury yields shows bond markets remain uneasy despite softer labour data.
• Oil and bond yields are key swing factors: Crude recovered strongly from its intraday decline, helping push yields back higher. Further moves in oil could continue to influence inflation expectations and rate-sensitive equities.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive open after Wall Street rallied as a soft September jobs report cooled Fed hike expectations.
• US September payrolls rose just 29,000, while unemployment increased to 4.2%.
• Weak US jobs data sharply reduced expectations for an October Federal Reserve rate hike.
• Nasdaq Composite gained 1.19% and touched a record intraday high.
• US Treasury yields remained volatile, with the two-year yield reversing from a sharp intraday decline.
• Nvidia hit a record intraday high as AI-related stocks led technology gains.
• Tesla Q3 deliveries fell 2% year-on-year but came in ahead of expectations.
• Iran-Hormuz tensions remained elevated after additional tanker strikes were reported.
• G7 members agreed to release 100 million barrels of oil and diesel over four months.
• OPEC+ kept November production targets unchanged, providing some stability to the oil market.
• Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.8% in September from 3.2%, exceeding forecasts.

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