Markets Today (15 September 2025) at Open: Key Trends from Wall Street to ASX

1. Global Market Overview

• US Markets:
  The major US indices posted mixed results overnight. The S&P 500 edged lower by 0.05%, while the Nasdaq climbed 0.44% to a fresh all-time high. This was driven primarily by strength in Big Tech stocks. However, breadth was weak overall, with the equal-weight S&P 500 down 0.72%. The Russell 2000, representing smaller companies, fell 1.01% as it faced resistance near its 2021 record highs.
• Other Global Indices:
  Japan (+0.89%) and Hong Kong (+1.16%) showed strength, supported by tech momentum and retail inflows. India was also up 0.44%, while Canada, China, Germany, and the UK saw slight declines or near-flat movement.

2. Key Economic and Central Bank Themes

• Fed Outlook:
  Markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting and expect a total reduction of about 75 basis points by year-end. Inflation appears stable, while the labour market shows signs of softening. Support from technology earnings, particularly in AI-related sectors, is helping market sentiment.
• Other Central Banks:
  China’s central bank is likely to hold off easing despite weak economic data, while the European Central Bank remains divided on its rate path. FX cooperation between the US and Japan aims to let market forces determine exchange rates without targeting them for advantage.

3. Trade and Tariff Updates

• Discussions between the US and China are ongoing in Madrid, covering tariffs, security, and tech platforms like TikTok.
• The US is pushing for tariffs on India and China over purchases of Russian crude.
• Talks between the UK and US aim to reduce steel tariffs ahead of the upcoming Trump state visit.

4. Corporate and Market Highlights

• Microsoft is advancing talks to acquire a $100 billion stake in OpenAI, highlighting AI’s growing role in driving corporate strategy.
• Oracle and Nvidia announced strong AI-driven outlooks, boosting tech stocks.
• Adobe reported better-than-expected guidance due to high demand for software and AI monetisation tools.
• Brookfield Asset Management is acquiring Yes! Communities for $10 billion.
• Warner Bros and Paramount are targets for major media consolidation.

5. Commodities Update with Reasons

• Gold (+0.04%) remains steady, supported by global uncertainty and inflation hedging.
• Copper (+0.05%) is slightly up as industrial demand continues, though not significantly impacted.
• Oil (WTI) holds at $62.56, reflecting stable supply expectations and cautious demand forecasts.
• Silver (+1.46%) surged as investors seek alternatives amid market uncertainty.
• Lithium (-0.73%) and Uranium (-1.41%) declined, pressured by concerns over slowing industrial demand and softer global financing trends.
• Steel (-0.93%) reflects weak construction and industrial orders globally.

6. Sector-wise Performance in the US

• Outperformers: Consumer Discretionary (+0.57%), Utilities (+0.56%), Information Technology (+0.45%).
• Underperformers: Health Care (-1.13%), Materials (-0.96%), Industrials (-0.82%).

7. ASX-Specific Updates

• ANZ reached a $240 million settlement with ASIC over bond issuance issues.
• Gold Road lowered FY25 production guidance due to operational challenges.
• Retail Food Group CEO stepped down, triggering a leadership transition.
• Woodside received final government approval for the North West Shelf extension, with strict environmental conditions.

8. What to Watch Today
The ASX 200 is set to open lower following weak global breadth and small-cap resistance. ETF movements remain subdued, mostly between -0.5% and -1%. There are no major economic data releases today.

9. Dividends and Corporate Actions
Several companies, including Alfabs Australia and Credit Corp Group, are trading ex-dividend today. No IPOs, earnings releases, or AGMs are scheduled, keeping attention on market trends rather than corporate news.

Final Summary

Markets are cautiously optimistic, leaning on Big Tech and AI-driven growth, while anticipating further Fed rate cuts. Global indices remain mixed, with retail and tech sectors providing some support. Commodities are stable with selective movements driven by inflation concerns and industrial demand. Trade tensions persist, but dialogues are underway to ease barriers. In Australia, the ASX is expected to open weaker amid global softness, with no significant local triggers today.

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