Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures indicate a weaker opening as investors assess a mixed Wall Street session, with record gains in the Dow offset by weakness in technology stocks.
• Dow Jones closed at a record high, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 declined as investors rotated from semiconductor stocks into financials and industrials.
• Brent crude fell 4.7% and slipped below US$80 per barrel for the first time since March.
• SpaceX gained 4.8% after announcing a US$60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI software company Anysphere.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded with a positive bias overnight as investors rotated away from technology and semiconductor stocks into cyclical sectors, including financials, industrials, and utilities. The Dow Jones climbed to a fresh record high, supported by strong gains in financial stocks, while the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 closed lower amid broad-based weakness across the technology sector. The Information Technology sector was the weakest performer within the S&P 500, declining 2.32%.The European market ended in positive territory, with the FTSE 100 posting modest gains. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite also advanced, supported by strength in financial and materials shares. Across Asia-Pacific markets, India led regional gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 closed marginally higher. New Zealand's NZX 50 closed higher, reflecting continued investor confidence.Overall, investor sentiment remained relatively constructive as easing geopolitical tensions and lower oil prices supported risk appetite. However, caution persisted ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision and updated economic projections, while mixed economic data from China continued to raise concerns about consumer demand and weakness in the country's property sector.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets were mixed overnight, with energy prices experiencing significant weakness while precious metals remained resilient. Gold advanced 0.54% as investors-maintained exposure to safe-haven assets ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision. Silver also posted a gain, while uranium continued its upward momentum, supported by ongoing optimism surrounding nuclear energy demand and tightening supply expectations.Crude oil was the standout mover, with WTI crude tumbling 5.82% to US$76.05 per barrel. Copper edged lower as investors weighed mixed economic signals from China, including stronger industrial production and weaker retail sales data.In cryptocurrency, Bitcoin declined 0.70% as investors reduced exposure to risk assets following recent gains. Overall, commodity markets reflected easing geopolitical risk premiums, particularly in energy markets, while precious metals continued to attract defensive investor flows.Bond Yields

Bond markets were relatively stable as investors positioned ahead of key central bank decisions. US Treasury yields edged slightly higher, with the 10-year and 30-year yields rising modestly as market participants awaited the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and updated economic projections. The movement suggests investors remain cautious about the future path of inflation and monetary policy despite the sharp decline in oil prices.Australia's 10-year government bond yield declined modestly. Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year bond yield remained elevated at 2.635% following the Bank of Japan's decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points and signal changes to its bond purchase programme.Overall, bond markets reflected a cautious stance as investors balanced easing geopolitical risks against uncertainty surrounding future central bank policy actions and inflation trends.Key Drivers

• The Dow Jones recorded a fresh all-time high as investors increased exposure to financial and industrial stocks.
• Iran and the US are set to resume negotiations in Switzerland this week, with both sides aiming to resolve key issues, including uranium enrichment, within a 60-day framework.
• Shipping companies cautioned that a full return of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could take several weeks, despite easing geopolitical tensions.
• Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lowered oil price forecasts as concerns over supply disruptions eased.
• The Federal Reserve began its June policy meeting, with markets expecting interest rates to remain unchanged.
• SpaceX advanced after announcing a US$60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, the developer of AI coding platform Cursor.
• China's industrial production exceeded expectations, while retail sales unexpectedly declined, highlighting uneven economic conditions.
• The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, signalling continued policy normalisation.

ASX Company News

• Nickel Industries Limited (ASX: NIC) reported approximately US$80 million in adjusted EBITDA during April and May 2026. The company also expects to receive around US$70 million in working capital distributions by early July and continues progressing the commissioning of its Excelsior Nickel Cobalt project. 
• Symal Group Limited (ASX: SYL) entered into an agreement to acquire defence and resources contractor Shamrock Civil for up to AU$51 million, strengthening its exposure to Australia's growing defence and infrastructure sectors. Shamrock is forecast to generate approximately AU$16 million in FY26 underlying EBITDA.
• Flight Centre Travel Group Limited (ASX: FLT) lowered its FY26 underlying profit before tax guidance to AU$275 million–AU$295 million from AU$310 million–AU$345 million, citing weaker leisure travel demand due to Middle East-related disruptions. The company also announced a new AU$200 million on-market share buyback to reflect confidence in its long-term outlook.
• Sims Limited (ASX: SGM) upgraded its FY26 underlying EBIT guidance to AU$420 million–AU$435 million, supported by stronger non-ferrous markets, improving ferrous trading conditions and continued growth in its data centre-focused Sims Lifecycle Services business. 
• Fletcher Building Limited (ASX: FBU) expects FY26 EBIT of NZ$375 million–NZ$380 million and highlighted that six divestments and property sales are expected to generate approximately NZ$450 million in cash proceeds, supporting further debt reduction.

Stocks Trading Ex-Dividend

• Select Harvests Limited (ASX: SHV) – Dividend of AU$0.035 per share.
• WAM Active Limited (ASX: WAA) – Dividend of AU$0.010 per share.
• WAM Income Maximiser Limited (ASX: WMX) – Dividend of AU$0.006 per share.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• 4:00 pm (AEST): UK Inflation Data.
• 10:30 pm (AEST): US Retail Sales.
• 4:00 am (AEST): Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision.
• Market Focus: Investors will closely analyse the Federal Reserve's updated dot plot, economic projections and commentary from Chair Kevin Warsh regarding the future path of interest rates.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a softer start as markets await the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and updated economic outlook.
• Falling oil prices may help moderate inflation expectations and provide support for consumer-facing industries globally. 
• Dow Jones reached a new record high, highlighting continued investor preference for cyclical sectors despite weakness in technology stocks. 
• Ongoing US-Iran negotiations have reduced immediate geopolitical risks, supporting overall market sentiment. 
• Federal Reserve policy guidance remains the most important near-term catalyst for global equity and bond markets. 
• The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged, citing a slowing domestic economy while reiterating that inflation remains above target.
• The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.
• China's mixed economic data reinforces concerns regarding consumer demand and property market weakness. 
• Investors may continue favouring diversified, quality businesses while monitoring interest-rate expectations and geopolitical developments closely.

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