Markets Today (26 October 2026) at Open: Kapitales Morning Highlights from Wall Street to ASX

Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker opening, falling 43 points (0.49%).
• Wall Street retreated as surging oil prices intensified selling pressure.
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq recorded their second consecutive weekly decline.
• Brent crude reached a six-month high near US$117 per barrel amid Middle East supply concerns.
• Federal Reserve, ECB and Bank of Japan policy decisions remain in focus.
• Markets largely ruled out an October Fed rate hike, shifting attention towards December.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets ended uniformly lower as persistent uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, geopolitical developments and economic growth weighed on investor sentiment. In the United States, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declined as technology stocks faced continued pressure, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded a sharper retreat, reflecting broader market weakness. European equities also struggled, with the UK's FTSE 100 closing lower amid cautious trading conditions and concerns over the economic outlook. Canada's S&P/TSX Composite followed the downward trend, highlighting subdued sentiment across North American markets.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei weakened as investors assessed global economic developments and potential monetary policy adjustments. Indian equities also finished lower, reflecting cautious investor positioning amid broader international market uncertainty. New Zealand's NZX 50 registered a modest decline, indicating relatively limited selling pressure compared with other major markets. Overall, widespread weakness across global benchmarks highlighted a cautious investment environment, with market participants closely monitoring central bank decisions, geopolitical tensions and developments in energy markets for clearer direction in upcoming trading sessions.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets displayed divergent trends as energy and industrial metals advanced, while precious metals faced selling pressure. Gold declined as investors reassessed safe-haven demand amid changing global market conditions, while silver recorded a steeper fall, reflecting weakness across precious metals. In contrast, WTI crude oil prices surged, supported by heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and persistent geopolitical tensions. Copper prices also strengthened, indicating renewed buying interest in industrial metals despite uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and manufacturing demand. Meanwhile, uranium registered a marginal increase, suggesting relatively stable trading conditions compared with other commodities. Bitcoin remained relatively stable, reflecting limited price movement amid cautious sentiment across global financial markets. Overall, the contrasting movements highlighted shifting investor preferences, with energy markets benefiting from supply-related concerns while precious metals encountered downward pressure. Investors remain attentive to geopolitical developments, central bank policy decisions and global demand expectations, which could influence commodity prices and cryptocurrency performance in upcoming trading sessions.

Bond Yields

Global government bond yields displayed divergent movements as investors assessed monetary policy expectations, inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties. Australia's ten-year government bond yield declined, reflecting increased demand for fixed-income securities amid cautious market sentiment. Japan's ten-year bond yield also moved lower as investors evaluated the Bank of Japan's monetary policy outlook and domestic economic conditions. In contrast, US Treasury yields edged higher across longer maturities, with both the ten-year and thirty-year benchmarks recording modest increases. The upward movement in US yields highlighted continued sensitivity to inflation expectations, borrowing costs and the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook. Overall, the contrasting yield movements reflected differing economic conditions and monetary policy expectations across major economies. Market participants remain focused on upcoming central bank decisions, inflation developments and geopolitical risks, which could influence sovereign bond valuations and broader financial market sentiment.

Key Drivers

• US markets closed lower, with the S&P 500 hitting a five-week low and Nasdaq nearing a three-month low.
• Weekly performance: S&P 500 fell 0.47%, Nasdaq declined 0.71%, Dow gained 0.41%, and Russell 2000 rose 2.0%.
• Brent crude settled near US$117 per barrel, its highest since April, marking a third consecutive weekly gain.
• US 10-year Treasury yield climbed 4 basis points to 5.0% amid renewed oil-driven inflation concerns.
• WTI crude surpassed US$100 per barrel, lifting SLB shares over 7% and Halliburton 6%.
• Cybersecurity stocks rallied, with Palo Alto Networks and Cloudflare gaining over 7% each.
• Semiconductor stocks edged higher but recorded their longest weekly losing streak since November.
• France retained its Moody's Aa3 credit rating, although its outlook remained negative.
• Emerging-market bond funds attracted inflows for the 12th consecutive week despite elevated US Treasury yields.
• Goldman Sachs reduced its 12-month Kospi target by 25% to 9,000 following a market correction.
• American Express reported Q3 revenue of US$14.5 billion, up 9%, while adjusted EPS increased 13% to US$4.68.
• Apple briefly surpassed Nvidia as the world’s most valuable company following the launch of its US$1,999 iPhone Duo, with both valued near US$5.1 trillion before Nvidia regained the lead.
• SK Hynix suspended Solidigm's proposed US listing, previously targeting US$10–15 billion in fundraising.
• Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones and a ballistic missile targeting Riyadh amid escalating regional tensions.
• US military preparations for potential Iran escalation included a third carrier group and 10,000 additional personnel.
• Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations for October declined to approximately 5%, while December hike probability reached 71%.
• Eurozone composite PMI declined to 51.9 in October, below expectations of 52.7 and its weakest in four months.

ASX Company News

• Brazilian Rare Earths Limited (ASX: BRE) announced an upgraded Mineral Resource Estimate for its Monte Alto project in Brazil on 26 October 2026, reporting a 41% increase in Indicated ultra-high-grade resource tonnage to approximately 3.5 million tonnes at 10.7% total rare earth oxides (TREO). The total ultra-high-grade Mineral Resource increased 29% to 4.4 million tonnes at 9.9% TREO, with Indicated resources accounting for 87% of contained TREO. The Monte Alto South Indicated resource expanded approximately 200% to 1.9 million tonnes. The updated estimate incorporates more than 43,000 metres of diamond drilling across 255 holes, while the company continues a 5,000-metre drilling programme and targets completion of its concentrate sales feasibility study by the end of 2026.
• BlueScope Steel Limited (ASX: BSL) upgraded its first-half FY2027 earnings guidance on 26 October 2026, forecasting underlying EBIT approaching AU$1.1 billion, compared with its previous guidance range of AU$860 million to AU$960 million. The improvement was primarily attributed to stronger US steel spreads and better operating performance across North America and Australia. North Star is expected to deliver earnings approaching three-quarters higher than in the second half of FY2026, primarily supported by stronger benchmark US mini-mill steel spreads, now estimated at approximately US$810 per tonne. Buildings and Coated Products North America earnings are projected to increase approximately 50%, while Australian Steel Products earnings are expected to nearly double compared with the previous half-year.
• Greatland Resources Limited (ASX: GGP) released its September 2026 quarterly activities report on 26 October 2026, reporting gold production of 70,131 ounces and copper production of 2,927 tonnes, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) of AU$2,925 per gold ounce. Quarterly net revenue reached AU$485 million, supported by gold sales of 71,901 ounces and copper sales of 2,714 tonnes. Operating cash flow totalled AU$289 million, while the company ended September with AU$1.314 billion in cash and no drawn debt. Greatland invested AU$45.2 million in Havieron development and reaffirmed FY2027 gold production guidance of 260,000–300,000 ounces, with expected AISC of AU$2,900–AU$3,330 per ounce.
• Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: RMS) released its September 2026 quarterly activities report on 26 October 2026, reporting gold production of 48,839 ounces at an AISC of AU$2,656 per ounce. Gold sales revenue reached AU$308.6 million, while operating cash flow totalled approximately AU$186 million. Cash and gold holdings increased to AU$768 million from AU$650 million in June 2026, supported by the completion of the AU$300 million Edna May asset sale. The company recorded underlying free cash flow of AU$62 million and reaffirmed FY2027 production guidance of 205,000–225,000 ounces at an AISC of AU$2,150–AU$2,350 per ounce, despite weather-related disruptions affecting ore haulage from Penny.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Alcoa Corporation (ASX: AAI) – $0.101

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Middle East Geopolitical Tensions: Escalating regional conflicts and oil supply disruptions could sustain volatility in global energy markets.
• Global Central Bank Decisions: Upcoming policy announcements from the ECB and Bank of Japan could influence currencies, bond yields and equity markets.
• Inflation and Economic Growth: Rising crude oil prices and weakening economic indicators could heighten inflation concerns and affect global market sentiment.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker opening, down 43 points (-0.49%), as Wall Street declined and Brent crude hit a six-month high amid Middle East supply risks.
• S&P 500 fell 0.52%, Nasdaq declined 0.21%, and Dow Jones dropped 1.23%.
• Brent crude approached US$117 per barrel, reaching a six-month high amid Middle East supply concerns.
• WTI crude surged 3.82% to US$103.27 per barrel, supported by geopolitical tensions.
• Gold declined 0.77% to US$3,993.96 per ounce, while silver fell 1.92% to US$53.94.
• US 10-year Treasury yields reached approximately 5.0% as rising oil prices revived inflation concerns.
• Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations for October fell to approximately 5%, while December hike probability reached 71%.
• Eurozone composite PMI eased to 51.9 in October, below expectations of 52.7.
• France retained its Moody's Aa3 credit rating with a negative outlook amid bond market uncertainty.

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