Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a softer open, down 20 points (-0.22%) after Monday's 1.4% rally.
• US markets closed mixed, with the Dow Jones gaining 0.51% and the Equal-weight S&P 500 reaching a record close, while the Nasdaq edged lower.
• Nvidia tumbled 5%, dragging the Nasdaq lower despite strength across broader US equities.
• A third consecutive night without fresh US strikes on Iran lifted commodities and eased the US 10-year Treasury yield from its 1.5-year high.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a broadly positive performance, although gains were uneven across regions. In the United States, the S&P 500 edged up 0.02% to 7,413.00, while the Dow Jones outperformed with a 0.51% gain to 52,210.00. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.18% to 24,932.00, weighed down by weakness in major technology stocks. European sentiment remained constructive, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.42% to 10,782.00. In North America, Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite advanced 0.56% to 35,568.00. The Asia-Pacific region also posted solid gains, led by India, where the benchmark climbed 1.02% to 76,836.00. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.50% to 64,931.00. New Zealand’s NZX 50 increased 0.57% to 13,851.00. Overall, global equity markets maintained a positive tone, driven by broad-based strength across key regions.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity and cryptocurrency markets delivered a mixed performance, reflecting varied investor sentiment across asset classes. Gold climbed 0.64% to US$4,077.74 per ounce, supported by continued demand for safe-haven assets, while copper gained 0.73% to US$6.35 per pound, indicating resilient expectations for industrial demand. Uranium also advanced 1.34% to US$5,337.85, extending its positive momentum. In contrast, WTI crude oil recorded the sharpest decline, plunging 9.52% to US$81.86 per barrel, as easing geopolitical concerns weighed on energy prices. Silver fell 2.23% to US$58.61 per ounce, tracking broader profit-taking in precious metals. In the digital asset market, Bitcoin slipped 1.05% to US$64,661.00, highlighting cautious investor sentiment despite resilience in several commodity markets. Overall, trading reflected selective buying in metals alongside weakness in energy and cryptocurrency markets.Bond Yields

Global bond yields remained elevated, reflecting expectations that major central banks will maintain a cautious policy stance. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.015 bps to 5.019%, remaining above the 5% mark. In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield edged up 0.004 bps to 4.641%, while the 30-year Treasury yield rose 0.009 bps to 5.134%, indicating persistent long-term inflation and interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield stood at 2.782%, remaining near multi-year highs. Overall, bond markets reflected a stable but elevated yield environment as investors continued to assess inflation trends, monetary policy expectations, and the global economic outlook.Key Drivers

• US markets ended mixed, with the Dow Jones (+0.51%) and Equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.75%) outperforming, while the S&P 500 rose 0.02% and the Nasdaq fell 0.18%.
• Relief over the absence of fresh US-Iran strikes lifted equities and gold, while Brent crude plunged 13.5% to US$85.35/bbl.
• Market breadth remained strong, with seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finishing higher despite late-session profit-taking.
• Nvidia tumbled 5%, its biggest one-day decline since February, amid renewed concerns over AI infrastructure financing commitments.
• ASML dropped 5.8% after reports that China has developed domestic immersion DUV lithography machines.
• Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT surged 466% on debut after raising 57.92 billion yuan (US$8.6 billion) in Asia's largest IPO of 2026.
• Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged, with around a 60% probability of a hold at this week's meeting.
• The Bank of Japan is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 1.0%, a 31-year high.
• Germany's Ifo business climate index rose to 86.6, a five-month high, signalling improving business confidence.
• China's industrial profits grew 15.1% year-on-year in June, though growth slowed for a second consecutive month amid weaker energy prices.

ASX Company News

• Whitehaven Coal Limited (ASX: WHC) reported strong June quarter operating performance, with managed ROM coal production rising 13% quarter-on-quarter to 10.7 million tonnes and FY26 production increasing 3% to 40.3 million tonnes. FY26 equity sales of produced coal reached 26.0 million tonnes, with metallurgical coal contributing 57% of revenue. The company expects unit costs to be near the lower end of guidance at around AU$132 per tonne and capital expenditure of approximately AU$350 million. Whitehaven also delivered annualised cost savings of AU$60 million to AU$80 million, while net debt increased to about AU$1.3 billion following the second deferred acquisition payment to BMA.
• Web Travel Group Limited (ASX: WEB) issued positive 1H27 guidance, forecasting WebBeds' TTV margin to improve to approximately 6.7% from 6.5% a year earlier, while revenue in euro terms is expected to increase 11% to 15%. The company expects underlying EBITDA of AU$80 million to AU$86 million despite currency headwinds and anticipates cash conversion exceeding 100%. Web Travel also announced an on-market share buy-back of up to AU$90 million, funded from existing cash reserves, with the program expected to commence in August 2026.
• Southern Cross Gold Consolidated Limited (ASX: SX2) announced significant drilling results from its Sunday Creek Gold-Antimony Project in Victoria. The company reported a 481-metre mineralised interval grading 0.9 g/t gold, including a high-grade intercept of 0.8 metres at 141.0 g/t gold, confirming the continuity between the Christina and Golden Dyke prospects. The drilling campaign also identified shallow mineralisation within 15 to 60 metres of the surface, while the company continues advancing its 200,000-metre exploration program with eleven drill rigs currently operating.
• Deep Yellow Limited (ASX: DYL) continued advancing its Tumas uranium project in Namibia toward a targeted final investment decision in Q4 2026. During the June quarter, detailed engineering reached 79% completion, bulk earthworks were finalised and two major construction contracts were awarded following quarter-end. The company also progressed optimisation work at the Mulga Rock Project, prepared for drilling at the Alligator River Project, strengthened its uranium portfolio through the Cooper Creek Joint Venture acquisition, and ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of AU$160.0 million.
• Duratec Limited (ASX: DUR) secured four new contracts with a combined value of approximately AU$70 million across the Energy, Marine, and Mining & Industrial sectors. The awards include a construction management contract for Orica's Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, engineering services for Perth Airport's Jet Fuel Expansion Program, wharf remediation works at Fremantle Ports' Kwinana Bulk Jetty, and structural remediation services at Rio Tinto's Gove bauxite export facilities. The projects further strengthen Duratec's presence in energy transition infrastructure and expand its pipeline across critical infrastructure markets.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• US Federal Reserve interest rate decision and policy guidance will be closely watched for signals on the future interest rate path.
• Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks could influence global equity, bond, and currency markets.
• Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting is expected to provide insights into the outlook for Japanese interest rates and inflation.
• Developments in US-Iran geopolitical tensions remain in focus, with potential implications for oil prices and broader market sentiment.
• Corporate earnings from major global technology companies will be monitored for indications of AI spending trends and the broader outlook for equity markets.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a weaker open, down 20 points (-0.22%), following Monday's strong 1.4% rally.
• Nvidia fell 5%, marking its biggest one-day decline since February, amid renewed concerns over AI infrastructure financing.
• Relief over the absence of fresh US-Iran strikes supported global equities, while WTI crude oil plunged 9.52% and Brent crude fell 13.5%.
• Gold gained 0.64% to US$4,077.74/oz, while copper rose 0.73% on resilient industrial demand expectations.
• Bitcoin declined 1.05% to US$64,661, reflecting cautious sentiment in digital assets.
• Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged, with attention focused on the FOMC statement and Chair Jerome Powell's guidance.
• Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT surged 466% on its market debut after raising US$8.6 billion in Asia's largest IPO of 2026.

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