​Source: Kapitales ResearchHeadline

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive opening, rising 48 points or 0.55%, as easing tensions between the United States and Iran supported investor sentiment.
• Wall Street ended mixed, with gains in the Dow Jones and S&P 500 offset by weakness in the Nasdaq as semiconductor and technology stocks faced renewed selling pressure.
• The US and Iran refrained from launching new strikes for a second consecutive day, while Tehran reported progress in Oman-mediated negotiations aimed at safeguarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first meaningful sign of de-escalation in two weeks.
• Geopolitical risks in the energy market remained elevated after Houthi forces claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu on Saturday, keeping global oil supply security concerns firmly in focus.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance as investors weighed improving geopolitical sentiment against continued weakness in technology shares. In the US, the S&P 500 edged up 0.05% to 7,412.00, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.46% to 51,947.00, supported by strength in financials and defensive sectors. However, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.64% to 24,976.00, as renewed selling pressure in semiconductor and large-cap technology stocks weighed on sentiment. In Europe, the FTSE 100 advanced 0.91% to 10,736.00, reflecting broad-based gains across sectors. In North America, Canada's S&P/TSX Composite climbed 0.50% to 35,369.00.Across Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 2.73% to 64,611.00, while India's benchmark index declined 0.43% to 76,060.00. New Zealand's NZX 50 slipped 0.17% to 13,772.00. Overall, investors remained cautious as elevated bond yields, ongoing AI-related valuation concerns, and geopolitical developments continued to shape global market sentiment.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets traded mixed as geopolitical developments and shifting risk appetite influenced investor positioning. Gold edged up 0.06% to US$4,052.00/oz, while silver gained 1.47% to US$58.90/oz, reflecting continued demand for precious metals. Copper advanced 0.43% to US$6.33/lb, supported by expectations of resilient industrial demand.In the energy market, WTI crude oil declined 1.87% to US$90.47 per barrel, as easing tensions between the United States and Iran reduced immediate concerns over potential supply disruptions. Meanwhile, uranium fell 3.08% to US$5,267.11, extending recent weakness in the nuclear fuel market. In digital assets, Bitcoin rose 1.20% to US$65,125.00, supported by improving risk sentiment and renewed buying interest.Bond Yields

Global sovereign bond markets were mixed as investors reassessed inflation expectations and geopolitical developments. Australia's 10-year government bond yield climbed 7.9 basis points to 5.087%, while Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose 4.0 basis points to 2.813%, reflecting expectations that monetary policy may remain restrictive.In contrast, US Treasury yields eased, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 4.2 basis points to 4.637% and the 30-year Treasury yield slipping 0.9 basis points to 5.162%. The decline in US yields suggested increased demand for government bonds as investors balanced improving geopolitical sentiment with ongoing uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and interest rate expectations.Key Drivers

• US markets closed mixed, with the S&P 500 (+0.05%) and Dow Jones posting gains, while the Nasdaq declined as semiconductor and technology stocks came under renewed selling pressure.
• Market breadth remained exceptionally strong, with the Equal-weight S&P 500 rising 0.78%, outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500 by 73 basis points, while Technology (-0.88%) was the only sector to finish lower.
• Geopolitical tensions eased after the US and Iran paused military strikes for a second consecutive day, while Oman-mediated discussions made progress on safeguarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
• AI spending concerns weighed on technology stocks after Moody's warned that accelerating AI capital expenditure could pressure the credit quality of major technology companies, with combined capex projected at US$785 billion in 2026 and around US$1 trillion in 2027.
• US Section 301 tariffs of 10%–12.5% officially took effect on 60 trading partners, with Australia facing a 12.5% tariff, adding to global trade uncertainty.
• US Treasury yields eased modestly, with the 10-year Treasury yield retreating after reaching its highest level since January 2025, providing some support to broader market sentiment.
• US economic data remained resilient, with the flash composite PMI rising to an eight-month high of 53.6, while new home sales increased 1.6% month-on-month in June.
• European economic activity strengthened, with the Eurozone composite PMI rising to 51.9, Germany's private sector returning to expansion, and the UK composite PMI improving to 52.1, signalling a recovery in business activity.
• Corporate earnings and guidance remained a key market focus, with notable updates from Intel, SAP, Alphabet, American Express, and Tesla, highlighting continued investor scrutiny of earnings quality, capital expenditure, and AI investment plans.

ASX Company News

• Spark New Zealand Limited (ASX: SPK) has initiated a strategic assessment of its Digital Services business under its SPK-30 transformation plan. As part of the initiative, the company will reorganise its operations into two core segments—Connectivity and Digital Services—supported by a centralised shared services model. The Connectivity division will encompass mobile, broadband, managed services, collaboration, IoT and security solutions, while the Digital Services segment will focus on cloud, IT and related digital offerings. An adviser has been appointed, with the review expected to conclude during 1H FY27, although Spark noted there is no certainty that it will result in a transaction. The company also unveiled changes to its leadership team, reaffirmed that its FY26 earnings guidance remains intact, and confirmed it will announce its full-year FY26 financial results on 20 August 2026.
• Evolution Mining Limited (ASX: EVN) signed a binding Scheme Implementation Deed to acquire the entire issued share capital of Carnaby Resources Limited through a court-approved scheme of arrangement. Carnaby shareholders will receive 0.0682 new Evolution shares for each Carnaby share, implying an offer price of approximately AU$0.77 per share and valuing Carnaby at around AU$213 million. The transaction will add the Greater Duchess copper-gold project near Evolution’s Ernest Henry operation and could support approximately 10,000 tonnes per annum of additional copper production by using existing infrastructure and available mill capacity. Greater Duchess contains a Mineral Resource of 29.2 million tonnes at 1.3% copper and 0.2 grams per tonne gold, alongside an Ore Reserve of 8.4 million tonnes at 1.7% copper and 0.3 grams per tonne gold.
• Talga Group Limited (ASX: TLG) signed a non-binding Letter of Intent with Japanese trading company Hanwa Co., Ltd. regarding a potential long-term offtake and strategic investment partnership for the Vittangi Anode Project in Sweden. The parties intend to negotiate a binding offtake agreement for Talnode® graphite anode products and a separate project-level investment by Hanwa or other Japanese investors. Due diligence and term-sheet negotiations are targeted for the third quarter of 2026, with definitive agreements expected in the fourth quarter. The project is supported by a €150 million European Investment Bank debt facility and a €70 million EU Innovation Fund grant, while Talga is targeting a final investment decision in early 2027.
• Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (ASX: VUL) commenced civil construction activities at its 30 MW Lionheart geothermal power plant in Landau, Germany, following completion of early bulk earthworks. Current activities include preparing foundations, concrete works and road infrastructure ahead of building construction and the arrival of process equipment. The Lionheart development is planned as a fully integrated lithium and renewable energy project, with targeted annual output of 24,000 tonnes of lithium hydroxide monohydrate—enough to supply batteries for around 500,000 electric vehicles. Vulcan confirmed that construction activities continue to progress according to schedule and within the approved budget.
• Dexus (ASX: DXS) completed its AU$2 billion divestment program ahead of its FY27 target after exchanging contracts to sell three wholly owned office properties for a combined gross sale price of AU$715 million. The assets, located in Sydney and Brisbane, were sold broadly in line with independent valuations, with settlement expected in October 2026 subject to customary conditions. The transaction is expected to reduce Dexus' pro forma look-through gearing by approximately 2 percentage points, supporting its capital management strategy and enhancing financial flexibility.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• No major economic data releases are scheduled during the session, with investors expected to focus on broader market developments.
• Geopolitical developments in the Middle East, particularly updates on US-Iran relations and the Strait of Hormuz, will remain a key driver of market sentiment.
• Oil price movements will stay in focus as investors assess the impact of ongoing supply risks on inflation expectations and energy markets.
• Global bond yields will be closely watched for signals on interest rate expectations and the outlook for monetary policy.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive opening, indicating a positive start for Australian equities.
• US markets closed mixed, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones advancing, while the Nasdaq declined amid renewed weakness in technology stocks.
• US-Iran tensions eased after both countries paused military strikes, improving overall investor sentiment.
• Gold, silver, copper, and Bitcoin gained, while WTI crude oil and uranium prices weakened.
• US bond yields eased modestly, while Australia and Japan recorded higher government bond yields, reflecting differing market expectations.
• New US tariffs of 10%–12.5% took effect on 60 trading partners, with Australia facing a 12.5% tariff.
• Eurozone, German, and UK PMI data pointed to improving business activity across major European economies.
• Investors are expected to remain focused on inflation trends, interest rate expectations, geopolitical developments, and commodity price movements, as these factors are likely to drive market sentiment in the near term.

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