Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a flat open, up 6 points (+0.06%).
• Wall Street closes lower as the US 10-year Treasury yield reaches its highest level since 2007.
• Higher oil prices revive inflation concerns and reinforce expectations for further Fed tightening.
• Brent crude remains above US$100 amid continued uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz.
• Nvidia announces a record US$150 billion increase to its share-buyback authorisation.
• Gold and copper prices tumble as elevated yields pressure commodities.
• AI-sector sentiment remains cautious amid concerns surrounding autonomous AI agents.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets traded mostly lower, reflecting a cautious risk backdrop across the United States, Europe, Canada and Asia. Wall Street came under broad pressure, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones all finishing weaker as investors reacted to elevated bond yields, renewed inflation concerns and softer sentiment toward growth-oriented shares. Technology stocks underperformed the broader market, contributing to the decline in the Nasdaq.

European equities were comparatively resilient, with the FTSE 100 edging only modestly lower as defensive and value-oriented sectors limited the broader downside. Canadian equities also weakened, with the S&P/TSX Composite declining amid softer commodity-linked sentiment and broader global risk aversion. In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan’s Nikkei closed lower as investors remained cautious toward export-oriented and technology shares. Indian equities recorded a sharper decline, reflecting broad-based selling pressure. New Zealand’s NZX 50 closed modestly higher, showing relative resilience against the broader weakness across major global equity markets.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets were broadly weaker, with precious and industrial metals facing notable selling pressure. Gold declined sharply as higher bond yields and a firmer US dollar reduced demand for non-yielding assets. Silver also weakened materially, extending the broader pullback across precious metals. Copper traded lower as investors reassessed the global growth outlook and near-term demand expectations, while uranium prices also moved down amid softer risk sentiment.

Energy markets diverged from the broader commodity complex, with WTI crude oil advancing as geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns continued to support prices. The rise in crude maintained inflationary pressures and reinforced caution around the interest-rate outlook.

Bitcoin also traded lower, reflecting weaker appetite for risk-sensitive assets amid elevated yields and broader market volatility. Overall, the session was characterised by strength in crude oil but broad weakness across metals and cryptocurrencies, highlighting a defensive shift in investor positioning.

Bond Yields

Bond yields remain elevated across major markets, continuing to pressure equity valuations and risk appetite. Australia’s ten-year yield edged higher, maintaining a restrictive backdrop for rate-sensitive sectors and domestic borrowing conditions. Japan’s ten-year yield also remained at a historically elevated level, reinforcing expectations for tighter financial conditions. In the United States, Treasury yields eased only marginally, with both the ten-year and thirty-year benchmarks still holding at exceptionally high levels. Persistently elevated long-term yields are weighing on equity markets by increasing discount rates, raising corporate financing costs and reducing the relative attractiveness of growth stocks. The pressure is particularly acute for technology and other long-duration equities, where valuations remain highly sensitive to changes in real yields. Unless bond yields retreat more decisively, broader equity markets are likely to remain vulnerable to valuation compression and renewed volatility.

Key Drivers

• US equities closed lower as elevated yields and oil volatility pressured sentiment.
• US 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a near two-decade high.
• Markets increased expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
• The US dollar strengthened as higher yields supported the greenback.
• Brent crude remained firmly above US$100 amid persistent US-Iran tensions.
• Gold weakened as elevated Treasury yields reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.
• Chipmakers came under pressure as renewed AI-safety concerns hit technology sentiment.
• Boeing shares fell sharply following reports of a 737 Max cockpit-software issue.
• US credit markets showed growing strain as high-yield bond supply pressured risk premiums.
• US-Iran negotiations remained uncertain after Washington rejected Tehran’s latest Hormuz proposal.
• Saudi Arabia restored significant flows through its East-West oil pipeline, easing some supply pressure.
• US and China outlined tariff reductions covering around US$30 billion of bilateral trade.
• Washington continued weighing measures to address elevated diesel prices and exports.
• Fed Governor Lisa Cook signalled that persistent inflation risks still warrant a restrictive policy stance.
• The RBA is expected to raise the cash rate as inflation pressures remain elevated.
• China pledged stronger counter-cyclical support to stabilise property, employment and domestic demand.

ASX Company News

• Navigator Global Investments Limited (ASX: NGI) agreed to partially realise its Invictus Capital Partners investment through a strategic deal with New York Life Investment Management. NGI expects upfront proceeds of about US$40–43 million, potential earn-out consideration of up to US$32 million, and further value from its retained interest until 2031.
• Megaport Limited (ASX: MP1) secured three new AI infrastructure contracts worth about AU$978.6 million, lifting strategic contract value announced since April 2026 to around AU$2.3 billion. Pro-forma Group ARR rises to about AU$1.1 billion, while FY27 revenue guidance was upgraded to AU$720–810 million and EBITDA margin guidance to 42%–44%.
• Codan Limited (ASX: CDA) upgraded its H1 FY27 outlook amid exceptionally strong Communications demand. Segment revenue is now expected at AU$400–410 million with an EBIT margin around 40%, while Group NPAT is expected to be at least AU$160 million. FY27 Communications revenue growth is targeted at 30%–40%.
• Tungsten Mining NL (ASX: TGN) advanced funding plans for the Watershed Tungsten Project, with indicative debt proposals supporting up to 70% gearing, equivalent to around AU$200 million. The company is also progressing strategic investment, offtake and government-backed funding options, while Watershed remains the priority ahead of Mt Mulgine.
• GR Engineering Services Limited (ASX: GNG) completed its AU$10 million share purchase plan after receiving AU$32.5 million in valid applications. About 1.6 million new shares will be issued at AU$6.10 each, following the company’s earlier AU$100 million institutional placement.
• Develop Global Limited (ASX: DVP) issued its first annual production, operating cost and capital expenditure guidance, highlighting a substantial increase in FY27 production and cash flow. Woodlawn is guided to process 775,000–875,000 tonnes of ore at an average grade of 2.7% CuEq, containing 21,000–23,500 tonnes of copper-equivalent metal, while Pioneer Dome is expected to mine 650,000–750,000 tonnes at 1.2% Li₂O, containing 7,800–9,000 tonnes of lithium metal. Group FY27 growth capex is budgeted at AU$411 million–AU$458 million, largely reflecting construction at Yitirrti and development of Pioneer Dome. Pioneer Dome remains on schedule for first lithium DSO sales in the December 2026 quarter, while Yitirrti is targeting first concentrate production in the June 2028 quarter. Develop Mining Services forecasts FY27 revenue of AU$100 million–AU$110 million.
• Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) increased Plutonic Gold Belt Ore Reserves to about 2.0 million ounces, supporting its target of around 200,000 ounces of annual production for roughly 10 years. The Reserve base stands at about 23.4 million tonnes at 2.6 g/t gold, with cash and bullion of AU$331 million and no debt.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Acrow Limited (ASX: ACF) – AU$0.014.
• DPM Metals Limited (ASX: DPM) – AU$0.042.
• EVZ Limited (ASX: EVZ) – AU$0.006.
• Rural Funds Group (ASX: RFF) – AU$0.029.
• Centuria Industrial REIT (ASX: CIP) – AU$0.043.
• Centuria Office REIT (ASX: COF) – AU$0.022.
• Tasmea Limited (ASX: TEA) – AU$0.085.
• Cadence Capital Limited (ASX: CDM) – AU$0.030.
• Cadence Opportunities Fund Limited (ASX: CDO) – AU$0.075.
• Charter Hall Social Infrastructure REIT (ASX: CQE) – AU$0.045.
• Charter Hall Long WALE REIT (ASX: CLW) – AU$0.064.
• Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR) – AU$0.066.
• RAM Essential Services Property Fund (ASX: REP) – AU$0.010.
• Arena REIT (ASX: ARF) – AU$0.045.
• Waypoint REIT (ASX: WPR) – AU$0.043.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• RBA Rate Decision: Australia’s monetary policy decision at 2:30 pm AEST will be the key domestic catalyst, with markets focused on the cash rate and guidance on inflation.
• Bond Yield Pressure: Elevated Australian and US long-term yields remain a major headwind for equity valuations, particularly technology, property and other rate-sensitive sectors.
• Oil and Middle East Tensions: Brent remaining above US$100 keeps inflation and energy-cost risks elevated as markets monitor developments surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz.
• Gold and Resources: Sharp weakness in gold, silver and copper could pressure ASX-listed miners, while firmer crude prices may provide relative support to energy stocks.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a flat open, up 6 points (+0.06%), as Wall Street falls, Treasury yields hit a 2007 high, gold slides and Nvidia expands its record buyback.
• Wall Street closed lower as elevated Treasury yields pressured equities.
• The US 10-year yield remained near a multi-decade high.
• Higher oil prices reinforced inflation concerns and Fed tightening expectations.
• Brent crude stayed above US$100 amid persistent Hormuz uncertainty.
• Gold and silver sold off sharply as higher yields hurt non-yielding assets.
• Copper and uranium also weakened amid softer commodity sentiment.
• Bitcoin declined as elevated yields weighed on risk-sensitive assets.
• Markets increased expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in October.
• The RBA decision remains the key domestic catalyst, with a rate hike expected.

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