Highlights:

• Venezuela’s oil recovery carries a potential US$100 billion infrastructure funding requirement.
• Production ambitions depend on a dramatic expansion from just a handful of active rigs.
• Major international operators are returning, but capital deployment remains the critical test.

Venezuela Targets Major Oil Production Recovery

Venezuela is pursuing an ambitious revival of its vast oil industry, but restoring production capacity could require more than US$100 billion in long-term investment. The push follows a restructuring of the sector and a wave of agreements aimed at rehabilitating mature fields, expanding drilling activity and rebuilding infrastructure.

North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) has obtained long-duration operating rights for 17 oil fields in Venezuela, which together hold roughly 65 billion barrels of confirmed crude reserves. The arrangement could involve US$100 billion in new oil infrastructure investment, although Rystad Energy stressed that the figure represents a long-term funding requirement rather than committed near-term capital.

Production Targets Require Massive Drilling Expansion

Venezuela currently produces around 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd). Under Rystad Energy’s upside scenario, output could climb to approximately 1.6 million bpd by 2028, 1.8 million bpd by 2030 and 2.58 million bpd by 2035.

However, achieving that trajectory would require a substantial increase in operational capacity:

• Drilling activity may need to reach around 50 rigs by 2028.
• Nearly 80 rigs could be required by 2030.
• As of August, Venezuela’s drilling activity remained extremely limited, with just two rigs in operation.

Global Energy Companies Rebuild Their Presence

Investment activity is already accelerating. Chevron has pledged more than US$7 billion over five years and increased Venezuelan production to about 600,000 bpd. Continental Resources has agreed with PDVSA to develop the Ayacucho 2 Block, while Eni has secured an operating role at the Junín-5 field. Halliburton and SLB have also entered agreements targeting development and rig reactivation opportunities.

Outlook: Capital Deployment Will Determine the Comeback

Venezuela possesses enormous hydrocarbon resources, but decades of underinvestment have left drilling capacity, pipelines and processing infrastructure requiring extensive rehabilitation. Near-term gains could come from restarting dormant projects and improving existing fields, while new developments will demand substantially more time and capital.

The scale of Venezuela’s comeback will therefore depend less on resource availability and more on whether announced investment translates into sustained financing, infrastructure reconstruction and operational execution.

Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.

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