ASX 200 Preview: Set to Open Higher as Wall Street Rally Lifts Futures

1. ASX Futures Indicate a Firmer Start

The ASX 200 closed Thursday up 87.7 points (+1.0%) to 8,826.5, reclaiming its 50-day moving average. Iress (+6.97%) and Deep Yellow (+6.35%) led gains, though the index remains –1.7% over the past five sessions and sits 2.5% below its 52-week high.

This morning, SPI futures are trading 50 points higher at 8,866 (+0.57%), pointing to a stronger open for the local market.

2. Wall Street Rallies, Cyclicals Lead

US equities advanced across the board:

Dow Jones +0.77%

S&P 500 +0.83%

NASDAQ +0.98%

Russell 2000 +1.26%

Sector leaders were Consumer Discretionary (+2.25%), Communication Services (+1.12%), and Industrials (+1.09%), while Utilities (–0.16%) and Consumer Staples (+0.09%) lagged. The rotation into cyclicals and growth names reflects a risk-on tone ahead of tonight’s key US payrolls data.

3. Commodity Watch

Commodity markets softened overnight. Gold slipped 0.52% to $3,540 as risk appetite reduced demand for safe havens. Copper fell 1.11% to $4.49, reflecting weaker sentiment toward industrial metals, while WTI crude oil declined 1.01% to $63.34 amid supply-demand balancing.

4. Corporate Earnings in Focus

No Earnings today.

5. Ex-Dividend Watch

A heavy ex-dividend slate will weigh on today’s local trade. Large caps going ex include Coles (COL $0.32), Eagers Automotive (APE $0.24), Objective Corp (OCL $0.13), and Pacific Current (PAC $0.28). Mid and small caps such as Adrad Holdings, Aussie Broadband, Generation Development, Microequities, Peet, SDI, Viva Energy, and Vitura Health are also trading ex-div. The impact is expected to be most notable from Coles, APE, PAC, and Viva Energy.

6. Macro Economic Data:

The focus today will be on global macro data. At 4:00 pm, the UK reports July retail sales, followed by Canada’s unemployment rate for August at 10:30 pm. The main event, however, will be the US Non-Farm Payrolls release at 10:30 pm, a critical input for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook and likely a key driver of near-term market volatility.

7. Kapitales Research Take

The ASX is set for a firmer open, supported by Wall Street’s rally and stronger SPI futures. Gains may be concentrated in cyclicals and growth-linked sectors, but the broad list of ex-dividend stocks will likely offset some of that strength. Market attention remains firmly on tonight’s US jobs report, which could dictate global risk sentiment heading into next week.

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