ASX lithium miners soar as JPMorgan Chase & Co raises spodumene price forecasts

Highlights:

• JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS) to “overweight” from “neutral”, boosting sentiment across ASX-listed lithium stocks.
• Spodumene price forecast raised — 2026/2027 estimates lifted from US$800 to US$1,100–US$1,200 per tonne, with the long-term outlook increased to US$1,300.
• Lithium stocks rallied sharply at the time of writing — PLS surged 4.3%, Mineral Resources jumped 11.3%, and Liontown climbed 9.4% amid optimism over EV demand and supply risks.

The Australian lithium sector surged after JPMorgan raised its long-term price outlook for spodumene, with Pilbara Minerals Limited (ASX: PLS) at the forefront of the move. At the time of writing, investors are reacting to the upgrade of PLS’s rating to “overweight” from “neutral”, signalling renewed confidence in lithium producers.

Broker bullish on hard-rock lithium

JPMorgan’s basic materials research head Lyndon Fagan raised his 2026/2027 spodumene forecast from US$800 to US$1,100-US$1,200 per tonne, and lifted the long-term price to US$1,300 from US$1,100, citing robust electric vehicle demand and supply uncertainty. The bank also upgraded other ASX-listed players such as Mineral Resources Limited, IGO Limited and Liontown Resources Limited to “neutral” from “underweight”.

Market rally driven by supply concerns

The sharp move in forecasts reflects lingering doubts around the restart timeline of a key Chinese mine operated by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL). With no clear visibility on when production will resume, supply risks are elevating price expectations. The result: lithium-focused stocks on the ASX rallied — PLS jumped more than 4 per cent, Mineral Resources rocketed over 11 per cent, and Liontown climbed about 9 per cent at the time of writing.

What this means for investors

For investors the upgrade signals a changing tone in the lithium market — from cost-pressured and oversupplied to one where scarcity and EV-led demand may drive a fresh leg of upside. However, the durability of the rally will depend on whether higher prices lead to renewed supply growth and how quickly the Chinese mine resumes. Even as sentiment brightens, the sector remains cyclical — meaning timing and asset-specific fundamentals will matter. At the time of writing, the move offers a favourable entry point for bullish investors, but warrants careful monitoring of project-timing risk and global demand dynamics.

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