Mayank Bansal, CFA
Mayank Bansal is a CFA Charterholder and heads the Equity Research team at Kapitales Research, with over 5 years of experience analysing global equity markets. He leads fundamental, data-driven research combining rigorous financial analysis with macro trends.
Could Trump-Xi Talks Reshape Trade and Put Australian Markets in the Spotlight?
Highlights:
US-China Talks Enter a Critical Phase
US and Chinese officials are holding high-level economic talks ahead of the planned September 24 meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Washington.
Tariffs, artificial intelligence and critical minerals are expected to feature prominently as both sides test whether existing trade arrangements can be stabilised and areas of cooperation expanded.
The discussions carry significance well beyond the world’s two largest economies. For Australia, where China remains the dominant export market, changes in US-China trade tensions can quickly influence commodity sentiment, the Australian dollar and ASX-listed resource companies.
Why Australian Markets Have a Major Stake?
China accounted for 29% of Australia’s global goods and services exports in 2025, with Australian exports to the country reaching AU$196 billion, according to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade. Total bilateral trade stood at AU$326 billion.
Resources and energy dominate that relationship, led by iron ore and natural gas. China is also Australia’s largest agricultural export market. That exposure means any deterioration in US-China relations that weighs on Chinese industrial activity or investor confidence could have indirect consequences for Australian markets.
Conversely, progress towards a more durable trade framework could ease a source of uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand and global growth.
Iron Ore, ASX Miners and the Australian Dollar in Focus
For ASX investors, iron ore producers are particularly exposed to shifts in expectations for China’s economy. Australia exported almost AU$105 billion of iron ore and concentrates to China in 2024, underscoring the scale of the relationship.
A reduction in trade tensions could therefore improve sentiment toward large Australian miners and other China-linked sectors, although underlying commodity demand will continue to depend on China’s domestic construction, manufacturing and infrastructure conditions.
The Australian dollar may also remain sensitive to developments because it is often influenced by commodity prices and expectations surrounding Chinese economic activity.
Critical Minerals Could Create Another Australian Angle
Critical minerals add another dimension. Washington and Beijing are discussing rare earths and supply-chain security as the United States seeks to reduce dependence on concentrated Chinese processing capacity.
Australia is already working with the United States to develop more diversified critical-mineral supply chains, potentially increasing strategic interest in Australian lithium, rare-earth and mineral-processing projects.
What Comes Next?
The Trump-Xi summit is unlikely to resolve every dispute surrounding tariffs, technology controls and strategic supply chains.
For Australian investors, however, even incremental progress matters. The direction of US-China relations can feed through to Chinese growth expectations, commodity demand, the Australian dollar and ASX resource valuations.
With China accounting for a quarter of Australia’s total goods and services trade in 2025, the summit is not merely a geopolitical event for Canberra—it is a potentially important market catalyst.
Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.
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