Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a 57-point (-0.65%) decline at the open.
• S&P 500, Nasdaq Rise After US$7 Trillion Options Expiry.
• Warren Buffett Steps Down as Berkshire Chairman; Howard Takes Over.
• Energy Risks Rise After Riyadh Attack and Moscow Refinery Strike.
• US-China Trade Talks Begin Ahead of September 24 Trump-Xi Summit4.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets finished mixed, with US technology shares showing relative strength while broader risk appetite remained uneven. The S&P 500 ended modestly higher, supported by selective buying across large-cap stocks, while the Nasdaq Composite outperformed as technology-related shares attracted stronger demand. In contrast, the Dow Jones closed lower. European markets were also softer, with the FTSE 100 declining as investors remained cautious amid elevated interest-rate expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In Canada, the S&P/TSX Composite also finished lower, pointing to subdued sentiment across resource-heavy and financial sectors.

Outside North America and Europe, New Zealand’s NZX 50 ended slightly weaker. Across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei posted a strong advance, supported by improved investor sentiment and strength in major exporters. Indian equities, meanwhile, finished marginally lower as investors remained selective amid global market uncertainty and domestic valuation concerns.

Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets finished mixed, with precious and industrial metals showing relative strength while crude oil moved lower. Gold advanced as investors continued to seek defensive exposure amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Silver posted a stronger gain, reinforcing the positive tone across precious metals, while copper also edged higher on renewed buying interest across the industrial metals complex. In energy markets, WTI crude declined as participants reassessed supply risks and the potential implications of disruptions across key oil-producing regions.

Uranium prices also weakened during the session, reflecting softer near-term sentiment across the nuclear fuel market. In cryptocurrency markets, Bitcoin traded modestly lower as risk appetite remained subdued. The decline highlighted the continued sensitivity of digital assets to changing liquidity conditions, interest-rate expectations and broader shifts in global investor sentiment.

Bond Yields

Global bond yields mostly declined, easing some pressure on risk assets, although the overall yield environment remained restrictive for equity markets. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield eased, offering some marginal relief for domestic equity valuations, particularly across rate-sensitive sectors. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield edged lower to 2.977%, easing slightly after the Bank of Japan’s recent rate increase. In the United States, the 10-year Treasury yield declined slightly, indicating firmer demand for benchmark government debt and some moderation in near-term rate pressure.

However, the US 30-year Treasury yield moved higher, highlighting continued concerns around long-term inflation, fiscal funding requirements and the durability of elevated interest rates. For equity markets, this divergence remains important. While softer intermediate yields can support valuation multiples, persistently high long-dated yields continue to raise discount rates and financing costs. Overall, the fixed-income environment remains a key constraint for growth stocks, leveraged companies and other duration-sensitive segments.

Key Drivers

• US equities closed mixed: the S&P 500 gained 0.17%, Nasdaq Composite rose 0.39%, while the Dow slipped 0.18%.
• Market breadth remained weak, with the equal-weight S&P 500 measure falling around 0.5%, signalling that gains were concentrated in larger technology names.
• Around US$7 trillion of US options expired in Friday’s triple-witching event, representing roughly one-quarter of the market and the second-largest expiry on record.
• Semiconductor stocks outperformed, with Applied Materials gaining about 6.5%, Lam Research nearly 7% and Sandisk around 11%.
• Bitcoin climbed above US$81,000 intraday, gaining more than 5%, as crypto sentiment strengthened following the SEC’s five-year pathway for certain tokenised-stock trading.
• Berkshire Hathaway named Warren Buffett Chairman Emeritus, with Howard Buffett taking over as chairman.
• Netflix fell 4.6% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to Underweight, citing softer engagement trends and a weaker content slate that could limit margin growth through 2028.
• Volkswagen came under heavy pressure after cutting its 2026 operating return-on-sales outlook to no more than 1%, partly reflecting a roughly €6 billion Porsche impairment.
• US steelmakers declined after Nucor and Steel Dynamics issued weaker-than-expected third-quarter guidance, with Nucor down 6% and Steel Dynamics falling more than 4%.
• Middle East risks intensified after Saudi Arabia confirmed that a Houthi ballistic missile targeting Riyadh was intercepted, with no reported casualties or damage.
• The Moscow oil refinery was hit by drones during a large-scale attack on the Russian capital, adding further uncertainty around regional energy infrastructure.
• US-China economic talks resumed in New York, with Scott Bessent and He Lifeng discussing AI, tariffs and critical minerals ahead of the 24 September Trump-Xi summit.
• The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, its highest level in 31 years, with two board members opposing the increase.
• RBA Governor Michele Bullock kept further tightening in focus, saying the Board must assess whether previous rate increases are sufficient to return inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe.
• US manufacturing output fell 0.3% in August, ending seven consecutive monthly increases.
• Japan’s core inflation eased to 1.7% in August, while China’s refined-fuel exports rose 12.7% year-on-year to 6.01 million tonnes, with jet-fuel shipments reaching a record high.

ASX Company News

• Tower Limited (ASX: TWR) renewed its FY27 reinsurance programme, increasing its catastrophe cover limit to NZ$970 million from NZ$915 million in FY26. The third catastrophe limit rose to NZ$100 million from NZ$85 million, while catastrophe event excesses remained unchanged at NZ$20 million. Tower expects FY27 reinsurance premium expense to decline to 9.5% of Gross Written Premium, compared with 10.6% in FY26.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: TLX) signed an agreement to merge with ITM Isotope Technologies Munich SE, strengthening its position across radiopharmaceutical development, isotope production and manufacturing. The transaction carries US$1.65 billion of upfront consideration on a cash-free, debt-free basis, with around US$1.25 billion expected to be paid in Telix shares, plus contingent consideration of up to US$700 million linked to regulatory and sales milestones.
• Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: RMS) upgraded its medium-term production outlook, forecasting FY30 gold output of 560–610koz at an AISC of AU$2,100–AU$2,400 per ounce. FY27 guidance is set at 205–225koz at an AISC of AU$2,150–AU$2,350 per ounce, while FY27 growth capital expenditure is expected at AU$480–AU$570 million. The company also reported cash, gold and investment holdings exceeding AU$1 billion.
• Vulcan Energy Resources Limited (ASX: VUL) commenced commercial-scale production of its proprietary VULSORB® lithium extraction adsorbent in Germany. The material will supply first-fill volumes for its adsorption-type Direct Lithium Extraction columns ahead of Project Lionheart commissioning in the second half of 2028. VULSORB® has demonstrated lithium extraction efficiency of up to 95% and will support Vulcan’s planned 24,000-tonne-per-annum lithium hydroxide operation.
• Catalyst Metals Limited (ASX: CYL) reported a 370% increase in the Cinnamon Mineral Resource to 6.9 million tonnes at 2.5g/t for 541koz of gold. The underground component includes a maiden Ore Reserve of 232koz at 3.0g/t, supporting a 7.5-year mine life and steady-state annual production of 40–50koz. Life-of-mine AISC is estimated at AU$2,357 per ounce, with Cinnamon forming the sixth ore source in Catalyst’s plan to lift Plutonic production toward 200koz annually.

Stocks trading ex-dividend today

• Cochlear Limited (ASX: COH) – AU$1.30
• New Hope Corporation Limited (ASX: NHC) – AU$0.30

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Oil and Geopolitical Risks: Crude oil remains elevated despite recent weakness, keeping inflation, transport costs and energy-sensitive sectors firmly in focus.
• US-China Trade Developments: Markets will closely monitor trade negotiations ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting, with tariffs, artificial intelligence and critical minerals among the key economic issues.
• Central Bank Expectations: Investors remain focused on the outlook for further policy tightening following recent moves by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan, while expectations around the RBA’s upcoming meeting could influence the Australian dollar and domestic equities.

Summary

• ASX 200 futures point to a 57-point (-0.65%) decline at the open as the US$7 trillion options expiry leaves Wall Street mixed and Warren Buffett steps down as Berkshire Hathaway chairman.
• US equities finished mixed, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher while the Dow declined.
• US market breadth remained weak, with gains concentrated mainly in large-cap technology stocks.
• Around US$7 trillion of US options expired during Friday’s triple-witching session, the second-largest expiry on record.
• Semiconductor stocks outperformed, led by strong gains in Applied Materials, Lam Research and Sandisk.
• Gold and silver advanced, while copper also edged higher amid stronger demand for metals.
• WTI crude fell, as markets reassessed supply risks despite continued geopolitical uncertainty.
• Middle East risks increased after Saudi Arabia intercepted a Houthi missile targeting Riyadh.
• Ukraine struck the Moscow oil refinery, adding uncertainty around Russian energy infrastructure.
• US-China trade talks resumed ahead of the 24 September Trump-Xi summit, with tariffs, AI and critical minerals in focus.
• The Bank of Japan raised rates to 1.25%, while US manufacturing output declined and Japan’s core inflation eased.
• Investors should remain cautious as geopolitical risks intensify, with Houthi attacks sustaining Middle East tensions and Ukraine’s strike on the Moscow oil refinery adding uncertainty around energy supply and broader market sentiment.

Disclaimer for Kapitales Research

The materials provided by Kapitales Research, including articles, news, data, reports, opinions, images, charts, and videos ("Content"), are intended for personal, non-commercial use only. The primary goal of this Content is to educate and inform readers. This Content is not meant to offer financial advice, nor does it include any recommendation or opinion that should be relied upon for making financial decisions. Certain Content on this platform may be sponsored or unsponsored, but it does not serve as a solicitation or endorsement to buy, sell, or hold any securities, nor does it encourage any specific investment activities. Kapitales Research is not authorized to provide investment advice, and we strongly advise users to seek guidance from a qualified financial professional, such as a financial advisor or stockbroker, before making any investment choices. Kapitales Research disclaims all liability for any direct, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages arising from the use of the Content, which is provided without any warranties. The opinions expressed by contributors or guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect the views of Kapitales Research. Media such as images or music used on this platform are either owned by Kapitales Research, sourced through paid subscriptions, or believed to be in the public domain. We have made reasonable efforts to credit sources where appropriate. Kapitales Research does not claim ownership of any third-party media unless explicitly stated otherwise. 

Customer Notice:

Nextgen Global Services Pty Ltd trading as Kapitales Research (ABN 89 652 632 561) is a Corporate Authorised Representative (CAR No. 1293674) of Enva Australia Pty Ltd (AFSL 424494). The information contained in this website is general information only. Any advice is general advice only. No consideration has been given or will be given to the individual investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. The decision to invest or trade and the method selected is a personal decision and involves an inherent level of risk, and you must undertake your own investigations and obtain your own advice regarding the suitability of this product for your circumstances. Please be aware that all trading activity is subject to both profit & loss and may not be suitable for you. The past performance of this product is not and should not be taken as an indication of future performance.

Disclosure: The information mentioned above has been sourced from the company reports and a third-party database, i.e. Koyfin. Investors are advised to use strict stop-loss to protect their investments in case of any unfavorable/uncertain market events.

Kapitales Research, Level 13, Suite 1A, 465 Victoria Ave, Chatswood, NSW 2067, Australia | 1800 005 780 | info@kapitales.com.au