Source: Kapitales Research

Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a weaker open, falling 36 points (-0.41%) after Wall Street surrendered early gains and renewed geopolitical tensions kept oil prices elevated.
• US markets closed lower as gains in technology faded, while Healthcare, Industrials and Consumer Staples led the broader market decline.
• Brent crude briefly climbed above US$90 per barrel following a ninth consecutive night of US strikes on Iran before easing as diplomatic negotiations remained active.
• Investors now turn their attention to major US technology earnings, while copper strengthened and markets continue to monitor the upcoming expiry of Trump's temporary Section 122 tariffs this Friday.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets largely traded lower as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of a busy week of major US technology earnings and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Wall Street benchmarks surrendered early gains, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite all ending in negative territory as weakness in healthcare, materials and industrial stocks outweighed limited strength in technology. In Europe, the FTSE 100 declined by 0.71% as investors reduced risk exposure. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite fell 0.86%, reflecting broader weakness across North American equities. In Asia, India's Nifty 50 declined, and Japan's Nikkei 225 was closed for a public holiday. New Zealand's NZX 50 finished almost unchanged with a marginal gain of 0.01%. Overall, investors remained cautious due to higher bond yields, geopolitical uncertainty, upcoming corporate earnings, and concerns about global economic growth.Commodities & Crypto

Commodity markets traded mixed, with strength in energy and industrial metals offset by weakness in selected precious metals. WTI crude oil rose 0.57% to US$82.96 per barrel, supported by persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Copper gained 1.11% to US$6.29 per pound on resilient industrial demand expectations, while silver advanced 0.74% to US$56.56 per ounce. Meanwhile, gold declined 0.25% to US$4,006.75 per ounce as easing safe-haven demand weighed on prices, and uranium slipped 0.46% to US$5,100.85. Bitcoin climbed 0.78% to US$65,133, extending its recent gains as improving investor confidence and continued institutional interest supported the digital asset. Overall, commodity markets were shaped by geopolitical risks, evolving demand expectations and investor positioning, while Bitcoin strengthened as risk sentiment improved across digital asset markets.Bond Yields

Global bond yields remained elevated, underscoring persistent concerns around inflation, monetary policy and the broader interest-rate outlook. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield climbed 1.8 basis points to 4.979%, while Japan’s 10-year yield rose 1.9 basis points to 2.719%, reflecting sustained upward pressure across regional fixed-income markets. In the United States, Treasury yields eased marginally but stayed at historically high levels. The US 10-year yield declined 0.8 basis points to 4.587%, while the 30-year yield edged 0.2 basis points lower to 5.116%. The modest pullback suggested selective demand for longer-duration government debt, although elevated yields continued to signal caution over inflation persistence and the prospect of interest rates remaining higher for longer. Key Drivers

• Major US indices closed lower, with the S&P 500 (-0.19%) reversing an early 0.74% gain as selling intensified across Healthcare, Materials, Industrials and Consumer Staples.
• Investor positioning shifted further away from the "Magnificent Seven," with market participants increasingly favouring companies benefiting from AI infrastructure and broader AI adoption.
• Goldman Sachs said hedge funds have reduced exposure to technology stocks at a record pace over the past two months, highlighting continued sector rotation.
• Citi said the "Magnificent Seven" investment theme is no longer sufficient, recommending a broader AI "growth cluster" strategy instead.
• Big Tech earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, Intel and IBM this week are expected to be the next major catalyst for AI-related stocks and broader market sentiment.
• The US conducted a ninth consecutive night of air strikes on Iran, while Iran launched retaliatory attacks on US allies in the Gulf, keeping geopolitical risks elevated.
• Iran signalled it remains open to negotiations through international mediators, helping ease some of the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
• The White House is preparing new Section 301 tariffs as temporary 10% Section 122 tariffs are due to expire this week, keeping global trade uncertainty elevated.
• Canada's annual inflation slowed to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, largely due to a slower increase in petrol prices, indicating easing headline inflation.
• Chinese lithium carbonate futures fell 5.6% after China announced a 2–4% consumption tax on solar and lithium batteries, weighing on sentiment across the lithium sector.

ASX Company News

• Contact Energy Limited (ASX: CEN) reported a solid operating performance for June 2026, with mass market electricity and gas sales increasing to 495GWh from 410GWh a year earlier. The wholesale business also strengthened, with contracted electricity sales rising to 1,056GWh and electricity generated (or acquired) increasing to 1,101GWh, while unit generation costs declined to NZ$38.16/MWh from NZ$54.27/MWh. Hydro conditions remained favourable, with South Island controlled storage at 145% of the long-term average and Clutha catchment inflows reaching 171% of average. The company also continued advancing its renewable pipeline, including the Kōwhai Park Solar, Te Mihi Stage 2 geothermal, Glenbrook-Ohurua Battery 2, and Glorit Solar projects, supporting its long-term clean energy growth strategy.
• HUB24 Limited (ASX: HUB) reported record FY26 platform net inflows of AU$18.9 billion, while Q4 platform net inflows reached AU$4.2 billion. Total Funds Under Administration (FUA) increased 20% year-on-year to AU$164.3 billion, supported by strong adviser growth, continued product innovation and the launch of its Lifetime Super retirement solution.
• Telix Pharmaceuticals Limited (ASX: TLX) delivered Q2 2026 revenue of US$247 million, up 21% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by continued strength in its Precision Medicine business. The company expects FY2026 revenue and other income to exceed US$1 billion, while advancing multiple late-stage clinical programs and expanding its strategic collaboration with Regeneron.
• Alkane Resources Limited (ASX: ALK) delivered FY26 production guidance and reported record operating cash flow, with cash rising to AU$432 million at quarter-end. The company proposed its maiden fully franked dividend of 2 cents per share, generated AU$257 million in quarterly revenue, and issued FY27 production guidance of 163,000–177,000 gold equivalent ounces.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• UK unemployment data scheduled for release at 4:00 pm (AEST).
• Investors will closely monitor developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and potential impacts on global oil markets.
• Big Tech earnings this week are expected to determine whether AI-related investment momentum remains intact.
• Weakness across lithium markets following China's battery taxation measures may weigh on Australian lithium producers.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures indicate a weaker opening following Wall Street's late-session reversal.
• Big Tech earnings from Alphabet, Tesla, Intel and IBM this week are expected to be the primary catalyst for global equity markets.
• Geopolitical tensions remain elevated after the US conducted a ninth consecutive night of air strikes on Iran, supporting higher energy prices.
• WTI crude oil rose 0.57%, while copper gained 1.11%, reflecting resilience in industrial commodity demand.
• Bitcoin advanced 0.78%, supported by improving investor sentiment towards digital assets.
• Global bond yields remained elevated, reinforcing expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer.
• A cautious and selective investment approach is appropriate as markets continue to assess corporate earnings, geopolitical developments and the outlook for interest rates.

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