Headline

• ASX 200 futures point to a strong open, rising 74 points (+0.83%), supported by gains on Wall Street and continued weakness in oil prices.
• US equities finished mostly higher, with the Dow Jones rising 1.03%, while the S&P 500 also advanced. However, the Nasdaq Composite declined as semiconductor stocks faced selling pressure.
• Defensive and value sectors led US market gains, with healthcare (+2.3%), Consumer Staples (+1.96%), Materials (+1.66%) and Communication Services (+1.64%) among the strongest performers.
• Asian technology stocks faced heavy selling pressure, as South Korea’s KOSPI triggered its eighth circuit breaker of the year and Samsung recorded its sharpest decline in nearly two decades.
• Oil prices extended their decline, with Brent crude posting its worst three-day drop since 2020 as Iran began discussions with Saudi Arabia and Oman over Strait of Hormuz tensions.

Global Markets Overview

Global equity markets delivered a mixed performance as investors adopted a more selective approach, favouring defensive and value-oriented sectors while reducing exposure to technology stocks. In the US, the S&P 500 advanced 0.21% to 7,429.00, supported by broad market resilience, While the Dow Jones strengthened 1.03% to 52,747.00. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.22% to 24,877.00 as semiconductor weakness weighed on technology sentiment. European markets remained positive, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.83% to 10,871.00 amid improved risk appetite. Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite gained 0.51%, while New Zealand’s NZX 50 edged 0.08% higher. Asian markets faced significant pressure, with Japan’s Nikkei falling 3.95% due to technology-led selling. India’s benchmark index declined marginally by 0.09%, highlighting cautious investor positioning amid mixed global signals.Commodities & Crypto

Commodities experienced broad-based weakness as investors assessed shifting risk sentiment and ongoing market developments. Gold declined 1.31% to US$4,024.12 per ounce, while silver fell 2.69% to US$57.13 per ounce, reflecting profit-taking pressure across precious metals. Energy markets faced significant selling pressure, with WTI crude oil dropping 4.06% to US$79.26 per barrel amid easing supply concerns and improved geopolitical sentiment. Copper edged lower by 0.57% to US$6.30 per pound, while uranium declined 2.91% to US$5,182.29. In the digital asset space, Bitcoin remained relatively stable, gaining 0.29% to US$63,916. Overall, commodity markets remained under pressure as investors balanced demand outlook, geopolitical developments, and broader macroeconomic uncertainties.Bond Yields

Global bond markets remained relatively stable, with yields showing limited movement as investors continued to assess inflation trends, central bank policy expectations, and broader economic conditions. Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher by 0.006 basis points to 4.975%, indicating modest upward pressure on domestic borrowing costs. Japan’s 10-year bond yield remained elevated at 2.770%, reflecting ongoing sensitivity to monetary policy developments. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 0.019 basis points to 4.617%, as markets monitored future interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, the US 30-year Treasury yield declined marginally by 0.004 basis points to 5.092%, suggesting limited movement in long-term rate expectations. Overall, bond markets remained cautious amid evolving macroeconomic signals and uncertainty surrounding the global interest rate outlook.Key Drivers

• US equities closed mostly higher, with investors rotating toward defensive sectors. The Dow Jones gained 1.03%, extending its winning streak to three sessions, while the equal-weight S&P 500 reached a fresh all-time high.
• Technology stocks remained under pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite falling to its lowest level in nearly three months, down 8.1% from its 2 June record high amid semiconductor weakness.
• Semiconductor stocks faced significant selling pressure, with the SOX Semiconductor Index declining 4.5%, extending losses to 24.5% from its 22 June peak due to China competition concerns, deleveraging, and AI investment risks.
• Asian technology markets weakened sharply, with South Korea’s KOSPI falling 10.8% after triggering its eighth circuit breaker of 2026, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix recorded steep declines.
• Investor concerns increased around AI-related capital expenditure, as credit markets reflected growing caution over hyperscaler spending and financing conditions.
• Apple briefly reached a US$5 trillion market capitalisation, surpassing Nvidia as the world’s most valuable listed company, supported by strong investor demand.
• Corporate earnings remained supportive, with Coca-Cola raising its full-year earnings outlook, Visa reporting resilient consumer spending trends, and Ford improving profitability expectations.
• PayPal strengthened its outlook, reporting better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raising full-year guidance, supporting investor confidence in its turnaround strategy.
• Oil markets remained focused on Middle East developments, as US-Iran negotiations showed potential progress, although Iranian officials denied reaching a ceasefire agreement.
• Federal Reserve policy expectations remain a key market focus, with fed funds futures indicating a 35% probability of a 25-basis point rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting, while a Reuters survey of 104 economists unanimously expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%.
• RBA Governor Michele Bullock indicated further rate hikes remain possible if inflation pressures persist, highlighting continued focus on domestic price stability.
• US consumer confidence weakened in July, declining to 90.8 as households remained cautious despite easing concerns around inflation, energy prices, and geopolitical risks.

ASX Company News

• Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO) delivered a strong first-half performance, with underlying EBITDA increasing 28% to US$14.8 billion and free cash flow rising 75% to US$3.8 billion, supported by favourable commodity prices and improved operational execution. Copper equivalent production increased 3%, while operating cash flow reached US$9.2 billion. The company declared an interim ordinary dividend of US$3.4 billion, up 43%, supported by a strong balance sheet and continued investment in growth projects.
• Vault Minerals Limited (ASX: VAU) reported a strong June 2026 quarter, delivering gold production of 89,338 ounces and sales of 87,922 ounces at an average realised price of AU$6,311 per ounce and AISC of AU$2,968 per ounce. FY26 production reached 336,540 ounces, with sales of 334,901 ounces. The company generated AU$219 million in underlying free cash flow, ended FY26 with AU$842 million in cash and bullion.
• West African Resources Limited (ASX: WAF) achieved record quarterly gold production of 125,179 ounces in Q2 2026, with gold sales of 110,737 ounces at an average realised price of US$4,556 per ounce and AISC of US$1,730 per ounce. The company generated AU$249 million in operating cash flow and ended the quarter with AU$876 million cash balance plus unsold gold bullion. WAF remains on track to deliver annual guidance of 430,000–490,000 ounces at an AISC below US$1,900 per ounce.
• Woodside Energy Group Limited (ASX: WDS) reported quarterly operating revenue of US$4.19 billion, up 28% quarter-on-quarter, supported by a higher realised price of US$85/boe. Quarterly production volumes were 41.3 MMboe, impacted by planned maintenance at Pluto Train 1 and cyclone recovery. The Scarborough Energy Project reached 98% completion and remains on track for first LNG cargo in Q4 2026, while Trion progressed to 64% completion.

Key Economic Drivers (What to Watch Today)

• Australia inflation data will be the key domestic focus, with the latest reading due at 11:30 am AEST, providing direction on the RBA’s future interest rate path.
• Federal Reserve interest rate decision remains the key global event, with the FOMC announcement scheduled at 4:00 am AEST. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.75% while assessing future policy direction.
• Investor attention remains on macroeconomic indicators, as upcoming inflation and central bank decisions shape expectations for growth, liquidity and market positioning.

Summary 

• ASX 200 futures point to a positive open, rising 74 points (+0.83%) following Wall Street gains and lower oil prices.
• US equities closed mostly higher, with the Dow Jones gaining 1.03% for a third straight session, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.21%.
• Technology stocks remained under pressure, with the Nasdaq falling 0.22% and semiconductor stocks facing heavy selling amid AI investment concerns and China competition.
• Commodities declined broadly, with WTI crude oil dropping 4.06% to US$79.26/bbl, while gold fell 1.31% to US$4,024.12/oz.
• Bond markets remained stable, with the US 10-year yield at 4.617% and Australia’s 10-year yield at 4.975% as investors assessed rate expectations.
• Asian markets weakened sharply, with Japan’s Nikkei down 3.95% and South Korea’s KOSPI falling 10.8% after triggering a circuit breaker.
• Corporate earnings remained supportive, with Apple reaching a US$5 trillion market cap, while Coca-Cola, Visa, Ford and PayPal delivered improved outlooks.

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