Mayank Bansal, CFA
Mayank Bansal is a CFA Charterholder and heads the Equity Research team at Kapitales Research, with over 5 years of experience analysing global equity markets. He leads fundamental, data-driven research combining rigorous financial analysis with macro trends.
OPEC+ Holds November Oil Output Quota Steady as Production Lags Targets Despite Hormuz Recovery
Highlights
Quota Left Unchanged for November
OPEC+ decided on Sunday, 4 October 2026, to carry its current oil production quota into next month without any change. The outcome was in line with what the market had expected. For both October and November, the combined quota is 31.01 million barrels per day across the eight OPEC+ members it covers. The group had reversed its earlier production cuts during the year. That move was intended to counter a worsening supply shortfall from the Middle East.
Actual Output Falls Well Short of Target
The headline quota tells only part of the story. In August, the group produced just 25 million barrels per day, a level far below its own ceiling. Much of the easing of production cuts since the US and Israeli war on Iran began has existed mainly on paper. The Strait of Hormuz was paralysed for months, which limited how much oil could actually be produced and shipped. As a result, higher quotas did not translate into matching volumes.
Hormuz Flows Recover, Yet the Market Stays Tight
Recent reports suggest that oil exports through Hormuz have returned to pre-war levels, and the latest figures indicate they may now be above them. Even so, OPEC+ output is still running under quota. Kpler data cited by Reuters put the seven-day moving average at 18.5 million barrels per day in the week to 1 October 2026. That figure covers the whole Middle East, including Hormuz, the Gulf of Oman and Bab El-Mandeb in the Red Sea.
UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo, quoted by Reuters, said the decision to keep production ceilings unchanged matched market expectations. He added that output remains well under quota even though flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rising. In his view, this means "the oil market remains tight".
What Could Explain the Gap
Higher export flows would normally point to more oil being produced. The OPEC+ production numbers do not show that so far. There are two possible explanations. One is that producers are releasing oil from storage, which lifts shipments without raising output. The other is that a larger share of production is being directed to export. Either way, the gap between quotas and real output is likely to stay in focus for the oil market.
Note- All data presented is based on information available at the time of writing.
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