Boss Energy Crashes 44% as Honeymoon Uranium Project Faces Ramp-Up Woes and Cost Blowouts

Highlights:

• Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) shares plunge 44% to AU$1.905 — a three-year low
• Operational challenges and higher costs shake investor confidence
• FY26 guidance surprises with sharp rise in capital expenditure and removal of nameplate capacity targets
• CEO Duncan Craib to step down, compounding strategic uncertainty

Honeymoon Turns Sour Despite Exceeding FY25 Guidance

Shares of Boss Energy Limited (ASX: BOE) nosedived 44% on Monday, after the uranium miner issued a sobering operational update that stunned the market. The company, which owns and operates the 100%-owned Honeymoon uranium project in South Australia, flagged material ramp-up challenges that could delay achieving full production capacity.

This came despite exceeding its FY25 production and cost guidance. Instead of celebrating operational success, the market was jolted by a revision in outlook, as Boss removed previously stated nameplate capacity targets and warned of elevated FY26 costs.

1. Market Shock from FY26 Guidance

The main trigger was the release of FY2026 guidance for the Honeymoon uranium project, which contained several unexpectedly negative surprises:

🔺 Higher Operating Costs

• C1 cash costs were guided at A$41–45/lb, up from prior expectations.
• All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) climbed to A$64–70/lb.
• These cost increases were higher than analysts and investors had anticipated, especially given previous guidance was more optimistic.

🔍 Reason: Costs are rising due to lower ore grade tenor and changes in the extraction process (e.g., new lixiviant chemistry), leading to higher consumables usage.

🚫 2. Removal of Nameplate Production Targets

Boss withdrew its nameplate capacity guidance, casting serious doubt over the ability of the Honeymoon project to ramp up as originally planned.

• Previously, Boss had forecast a clear path to full-scale production.
• Now, management acknowledges geological uncertainty in the East Kalkaroo region, including:
  • Less continuity in mineralized zones
  • Need for more wells (both injection and recovery)

🧨 Implication: Higher capital intensity and lower predictability, reducing the long-term return profile of the project.

💸 3. Hefty Capital Expenditure Surprise

Boss flagged FY26 capital spending of AU$56–62 million, split between sustaining capex and project infrastructure — well above market expectations.

• Sustaining capital (A$29–32M) will be spent mostly on 4–5 new wellfields.
• Infrastructure spends (A$27–30M) includes delayed FY25 projects and East Kalkaroo upgrades.

💥 Analysts were caught off guard by this unexpected scale of reinvestment just as the company was expected to transition to steady-state operations.

🧑‍💼 4. Leadership Instability

Adding to investor concerns, Boss announced that CEO Duncan Craib would step down later this year, after nearly 8 years in charge.

• He will transition to a non-executive director role in 2026.
• The timing of this announcement — alongside technical and financial headwinds — added a layer of strategic uncertainty.

⚠️ Leadership changes during operational ramp-up phases often shake investor confidence due to fears of internal disagreements or execution risk.

📉 5. Valuation Reset & Loss of Momentum

Prior to the crash, Boss Energy had been trading at a premium valuation, buoyed by:

• Rising uranium prices
• Strong FY25 execution
• Optimism around global nuclear energy expansion

However, the combination of cost blowouts, growth uncertainty, and leadership turnover led to a sharp re-rating by institutional investors.

🔚 Conclusion: A Confidence Crisis, Not Just a Cost Issue

Boss Energy's share price crash wasn't caused by a single factor — it was a perfect storm of deteriorating project economics, shifting guidance, and leadership turnover.

Until the company provides clearer updates on:

• Updated feasibility study implications
• Revised production timeline
• Leadership succession plans

...the stock is likely to remain volatile and under pressure.

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