Geopolitics to Shape Oil Market Trends in 2025: S&P Global Executive

Highlights:

• Dave Ernsberger, Co-President of S&P Global Commodity Insights (NYSE: SPGI), said oil markets in 2025 will remain heavily influenced by geopolitical events.
• The “complicated relationship” between energy policies and oil prices will continue to drive market volatility and shape long-term demand.
• At the time of writing, analysts expect oil prices to stay sensitive to global tensions and policy shifts, keeping the market unpredictable.

Geopolitics Remains a Key Driver

Global oil markets are expected to remain heavily shaped by geopolitical developments in 2025, with energy policies and prices continuing to be closely linked. According to Dave Ernsberger, Co-President of S&P Global Commodity Insights (NYSE: SPGI), this intertwined relationship between politics and market dynamics will persist as a dominant factor influencing supply, demand, and pricing.

Speaking to ET, Ernsberger highlighted that geopolitical events, including regional conflicts, sanctions, and trade restrictions, have a profound impact on production and transportation costs, creating ongoing

volatility in oil prices.

Policy and Price Interdependence

Ernsberger noted that the “complicated relationship” between energy policies and oil prices means that government decisions on production targets, export limits, or climate regulations will continue to directly affect market sentiment. As countries transition toward cleaner energy sources, policies aimed at reducing carbon emissions will further influence long-term oil demand.

At the same time, higher or lower prices can drive shifts in these policies, as governments balance revenue needs with environmental goals.

Market Outlook for 2025

At the time of writing, oil prices remain sensitive to geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors, with analysts predicting continued price swings amid global uncertainties. S&P Global Commodity Insights anticipates that market participants will need to closely monitor geopolitical developments to better manage risks and identify opportunities. The ongoing interplay between energy policies and price movements suggests that oil will remain a strategically significant commodity in the global economy. Investors and industry leaders are preparing for another year in which political decisions and regional tensions could shape both the direction and stability of the oil market.

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