Markets Today (30 September 2025) at Open: Key Trends from Wall Street to ASX

1. Overnight US Markets

• Major US indices closed higher after a late rebound:
  • S&P 500 up 0.26%
  • Dow Jones up 0.15%
  • Nasdaq up 0.48%
• Gains came despite headwinds:
  • US government shutdown risk
  • Renewed tensions in US-China relations
• Most sectors advanced, led by Consumer Discretionary, Tech, and Financials. Energy lagged, down almost 2% on weaker oil prices.

2. Commodities Update

• Gold surged nearly 2% to a record above US$3,800/oz.
  • Safe-haven demand is strong due to political uncertainty in the US and global growth concerns.
  • Traders are also factoring in the possibility of prolonged US government shutdown.
• Copper jumped almost 3% to US$4.85/lb.
  • Gains linked to improved demand expectations from China and signs of a rebound in its industrial profits.
• Oil fell sharply, down nearly 4% to US$63/bbl.
  • Pressure came from expectations that OPEC+ may approve another production hike at its October 5 meeting.

3. Global Markets Snapshot

• Europe: Germany flat, UK slightly higher, Spain upgraded by ratings agencies.
• Asia: Hong Kong rallied almost 2%, China up nearly 1%, but Japan fell 0.7%.
• India: Nifty slipped 0.08%.

4. Bonds and Volatility

• US 10-year yield eased to 4.14% as investors moved into safe assets.
• VIX (fear gauge) spiked 5%, reflecting lingering uncertainty.

5. Key Corporate and Sector News

• Toyota: Global sales grew in August, helped by US demand despite tariff pressure.
• PG&E: Announced a US$73bn spending plan tied to AI-driven energy demand.
• Carnival: Lifted annual profit forecast as cruise demand strengthens.
• OpenAI: Announced “Instant Checkout” feature and partnerships with Etsy and Shopify.
• Beyond Meat: Shares hit a new low on debt concerns.
• Cannabis stocks gained after Trump hinted CBD could play a role in senior healthcare.

6. Tariffs and Trade

• EU and Japan confident of capping US tariffs on key products at 15%.
• Trump pushing for fresh furniture tariffs and tighter export controls on Chinese firms.
• Switzerland struck a deal with the US on currency practices and gold refining investments.
• President Xi again pressed the White House to oppose Taiwanese independence.

7. Central Banks

• Fed: Officials remain divided. Some see inflation risks easing, while others worry about cutting too quickly.
• Bank of Japan: Hawkish voices are growing louder, pointing to a possible rate hike in October.
• RBA: Expected to hold rates steady at 3.6% given a strong job market and renewed inflation risks.

8. Economy

• Looming US government shutdown: Trump will meet Democratic leaders to try and avoid it.
• Labour Department warned jobs report will not be released if shutdown begins.
• China’s industrial profits rebounded in August thanks to reduced cost competition.
• Eurozone business sentiment improved with fewer tariff worries.

9. ASX Wrap – Yesterday

• ASX 200 closed up 0.86% at 8,862.
• Strongest sectors: Financials, Health Care, Industrials.
• Weakest: Energy and Technology.

10. ASX 200 – Today’s Outlook

• Futures point up 16pts (+0.18%).
• Expect a modest open with mixed drivers:
  • Gold and copper gains could support local miners (e.g., Northern Star, Sandfire).
  • Oil weakness may weigh on energy names (Woodside, Karoon, Beach).
  • Overall tone positive, but gains likely moderate as global macro risks remain.

11. Key Corporate Developments (Australia)

• CSL: CFO Joy Linton to retire; Ken Lim appointed successor.
• Lindian Resources: Shifts to owner-operator mining model to cut costs by 30%.
• Newmont: CEO Tom Palmer retiring; Natascha Vijoen to take over in Jan 2026.

12. Broker Moves

• Capricorn Metals upgraded to Overweight, price target lifted to $13 (from $10.50) by JPMorgan.

13. Corporate Actions

• Several companies trading ex-dividend today: Genusplus Group, Staude Capital Global Value Fund, Tasmea.
• Dividends being paid by Beach Energy, Bendigo and Adelaide Bank, Data3, Viva Energy, Guzman y Gomez, and others.
• No earnings, IPOs, or AGMs apart from AFIC and Djerriwarrh Investments.

Summary for the Team

• US markets finished slightly higher after a late recovery, though risks like a shutdown and US-China tensions remain.
• Gold and copper are powering ahead, while oil slumped on OPEC+ supply concerns.
• ASX 200 futures suggest a positive but measured open. Expect strength in gold and copper miners, softness in energy names.
• Corporate newsflow remains active, with CSL, Newmont, and Lindian in focus.
• Today’s theme: Commodities are driving the narrative. Gold is the clear standout, but oil weakness tempers the outlook.

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